This column is back in the black! For the first time this season, we sustained a profit from kick off on Friday evening to the final whistle on Sunday night. While federal treasurer Wayne Swan speaks of a fiscal financial policy to balance the nation’s books, I am discovering the Brisbane Roar betting method to inch towards positive financial territory. Perhaps Swan can start betting his budget surplus on the Roar to win their home matches too!
SEASON BETTING TALLY
Wagered = $400 – $10 per suggested bet
Collected = $262.10
Profit/Loss = – $137.90
% Profit/Loss = -34.5%
CHEEKY ROUND 5 A-LEAGUE MULTI
Andy’s Bet: Wellington, Adelaide and Sydney all to win @ 9.30 (Centrebet)
FRIDAY
Wellington Phoenix v Central Coast Mariners (AEDT 1730)
Wellington are normally a sure thing to win at home, but went down 2-1 to the Melbourne Victory at Westpac Stadium last Sunday. The Phoenix still impressed me with their fighting spirit. Reduced to ten men and trailing 2-0, Wellington scored a goal and nearly an equaliser in the frantic final minutes. Central Coast notched their first victory last week against the previously unbeaten Perth, although the Mariners looked shaky throughout and it was a matter of grinding out a result rather than producing a polished performance. With all that in mind, I think Wellington are a good bet here. The Phoenix will hopefully keep a full complement of eleven players on the pitch aided by a raucous home crowd acting as their ‘twelfth man’. The defeat to Melbourne should prove an aberration, not the start of a home slump. The Mariners have conceded in all of their four matches so far and the Phoenix are at better than even money to score two or more goals. Get on it.
Andy’s Bet: Wellington to win @ 2.50 (Centrebet, Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: Wellington to score 2 or more goals @ 2.50 (TAB Sportsbet)
Adelaide United v Melbourne Heart (AEDT 2000)
Adelaide are in early trouble this season. Many pundits tipped the Reds to be big improvers this season, challenging Brisbane for the title. However, things haven’t gone according to the script. In both their last two games United have taken a first half lead through Dario Vidosic only to concede multiple times and end up in defeat. Last week was a particularly stunning capitulation, with Adelaide falling from a 1-0 lead against Brisbane to a 5-1 deficit in just 15 amazing minutes. Fortunately for Adelaide they get a quick chance to bounce back by playing the only side below them on the table. Melbourne Heart are the only winless team in the league and coach John van’t Schip is desperately trying to keep his crew on course. The Heart coach is hopeful his captain, Fred, will return from a hamstring strain in time for this fixture. The Melbourne team were left heart-broken last weekend as a stoppage time leveller from Sydney’s Nicky Carle denied them a first win on the season. Adelaide should be too strong at home. I noticed something strange on the TAB Sportsbet website this evening (Thursday). For this match, the odds for the ‘Player to score’ market are identical to the ‘First goal scorer’ market. Ssshhhh, don’t say it too loudly, because gifts like this don’t come around too often (I don’t think it is part of a marketing promotion). The player most likely to score in the match is Reds marksman Sergio van Dijk, the golden boot winner from last season. His odds of $6 for a goal anytime during the match are ludicrous, so I recommend having a piece of them.
Andy’s Bet: Adelaide to win @ 2.07 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: Sergio van Dijk to score anytime @ 6.00 (TAB Sportsbet)
SATURDAY
Newcastle Jets v Perth Glory (AEDT 1730)
The second east coast trip in as many weeks is tough scheduling on Perth. The Glory played well against Central Coast last Saturday, but still suffered a first defeat of the season. This match will be slightly overshadowed by the likely season debut of former English international Francis Jeffers for Newcastle. Jeffers played nine times for the Jets on a guest contract last season, netting once. Jeffers was one of the best young English strikers of the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, earning the nickname of ‘the fox in the box’ during a four year spell at Arsenal. Jeffers would be one of the few English forwards to have a 100% goalscoring record for his national team, although it was only a single game for a single goal. That was a long, long time ago and ‘Franny’ hasn’t been much chop over the past 8 years, scoring only 14 league goals in 138 appearances during that time. Perth shouldn’t have too many troubles with Jeffers, but a second successive long road trip might take a toll on the purple men and I think a draw is the most likely result.
Andy’s Bet: Draw @ 3.30 (Multiple Sites)
Melbourne Victory v Brisbane Roar (AEDT 1945)
Match of the round! The attacking talent on show in this Saturday night blockbuster will be as good as any A-League match ever before. Brisbane are fresh from hammering seven goals past Adelaide last week, while Victory’s stars finally started to shine with greater luminosity. Archie Thompson and Carlos Hernandez got on the scoresheet for Melbourne and now the navy blues will want goals from Harry Kewell, Jean Carlos Solorzano and Danny Allsopp! Even though they won, Melbourne still didn’t quite click and I expect them to be overrun in the middle of the park where Brisbane’s passing game is so destructive. Despite playing away from home Brisbane won’t sit back, giving the Victory a rare chance to play on the counter at home and utilise some space when in attack. The Roar should still be too good and I think they’ll win an open, entertaining and very watchable match.
Andy’s Bet: Brisbane to win @ 2.05 (Sportingbet, TAB Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 3.30 (Centrebet)
SUNDAY
Sydney FC v Gold Coast United (AEDT 1700)
Sydney may lie sixth in the A-League table, however I don’t think this position does the sky blues justice as they were the only team to travel three times in the first month of the season, trekking to Melbourne twice and Adelaide once. Ironically, it was their home game that Sydney lost, although that was to the all-conquering Brisbane Roar. Nicky Carle is finding the form many of us knew him to be capable of, with the attacking midfielder scoring important late goals two weeks running. He is a supremely talented player and Sydney have benefited by getting him on the ball more this season. I’m going to bet against my adopted Gold Coast boys even though column favourites Maceo Rigters and James Brown netted goals last week. Rigters faded in the second half, but will get better each week as his fitness improves. Sydney defender Michael Beauchamp is one of the few in this league capable of handling Rigters and I think Sydney can build on a solid start to the season.
Andy’s Bet: Sydney to win @ 1.83 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 (Centrebet, TAB Sportsbet)