Euro 2012 Preview and Betting Tips

Posted on June 5, 2012 by | 7 Comments

The Euro 2012 tournament kicks off on June 8th and runs to July 1st. This article contains links, team previews, betting promotions and betting tips for the competition.

The tournament is co-hosted by Poland and Ukraine. Spain will be looking to win their third consecutive major tournament after winning Euro 2008 and the 2010 World Cup. The competition also features Germany, the second ranked side in the world. Group B is this year’s group of death, with all four teams ranked in the top ten in the world.

TV Coverage

The schedule isn’t kind to those who live on the east coast. The majority of games kick off at either 2:00 AM or 4:45 AM AEST. Australian viewers will get live games on SBS and Setanta. SBS will air eight games (four live), which include the final on Monday, July 2nd, plus one semi-final and two quarter-finals. SBS will also show matchday highlights at 5:30 PM. Setanta will air the majority of fixtures live, with four group-stage games the only exception. These will be aired delayed.

Links and Resources

The following websites will help you to follow the tournament.

Team by Team Preview

Below are previews for each team. These include current rankings, friendly results, bookmaker odds and comments. The comments are heavily based on the excellent analysis provided by bleacherreport.com.

GROUP A
This is a fairly balanced group, with all four sides having a realistic chance of progressing. Poland are the lowest ranked of the four teams, but they are the co-hosts. They will enjoy strong home support and historically host nations fare well in international competition. The teams in this group are fairly miserly in defence so the under 2.5 goals wager will appeal for many of these fixtures. Russia are the favourites to progress, with an almighty scrap for that second spot.
Team Rankings Qualifying Results 2012 Friendlies Bookmaker Odds Comments

Poland

(co-hosts)

 FIFA: 65
UEFA: 32		 Host Nation June 2nd:
Poland 4-0 Andorra
May 26th:
Poland 1-0 Slovakia
May 22nd:
Poland 1-0 Latvia

Win Comp: 41.00
Win Group: 3.40
Progress: 1.67

 Poland were poor in Euro 2008 when they only managed one draw. Their form has been stronger of late and they have become a tough team to break down. They went through a nine game stretch just recently where they only lost one game. During that stretch they only scored 11 goals, while conceding 8. They like to play a 4-2-3-1 formation (four defenders, two defensive midfielders, three attacking midfielders and a striker). English Premier League fans will be familiar with goalkeeper Wojciech Szczęsny, who plays for Arsenal. He should be kept busy this tournament.
Greece

 FIFA: 14
UEFA: 10		 W: 7
D: 3
L: 0
GF: 14
GA: 5		 May 31st:
Armenia 0-1 Greece
May 26th:
Greece 1-1 Slovenia		 Win Comp: 101.00
Win Group: 5.50
Progress: 2.40		 Greece tend to play defensively and then look to capitalise on set pieces. The side plays in a 4-3-3 formation. Since manager Fernando Santos took the helm in 2010, Greece has only lost once in 20 matches, so they’re no pushovers. Despite the fact that Greece won Euro 2004, bookmakers are giving them next to no chance of repeating that feat. Greece’s poor showing in 2008 where they finished last in their group is probably still weighing heavily in bookmakers’ minds.
Russia

 FIFA: 11
UEFA: 8		 W: 7
D: 2
L: 1
GF: 17
GA: 4		 May 25th:
Russia 1-1 Uruguay		 Win Comp: 18.00
Win Group: 2.30
Progress: 1.40		 Russia have had a hard time scoring of late. Excluding their 6-0 win over Andorra, they only scored 11 goals in their nine qualifying matches. On the upside, Russia only conceded 4 goals during their ten game qualifying campaign. If that type of form continues then the under 2.5 goals looks appealing. Russia have played with a 4-3-3 formation of late.
Czech Republic

 FIFA: 26
UEFA: 16		 W: 4
D: 1
L: 3
GF: 12
GA: 8		 June 1st:
Czech Republic 1-2 Hungary		 Win Comp: 61.00
Win Group: 4.33
Progress: 2.20		 Czech Republic currently employ a 4-2-3-1 formation to take advantage of their depth in quality midfielders. They will be hoping Arsenal midfielder Tomas Rosicky can carry over his impressive club form into the competition. They only scored 12 goals in their qualifying campaign, which is the fewest of any team to qualify.
GROUP B
I always enjoy it when Germany and the Netherlands get paired up, because there’s no love lost between these two sporting nations. The two sides are heavy favourites to both progress. Denmark and Portugal will be familiar with one another, having competed in the same Euro qualifying group. Denmark beat Portugal 2-1 at home and lost to Portugal 1-3 in Porto. Denmark went onto win the group, three points ahead of Portugal.
Team Rankings Qualifying Results 2012 Friendlies Bookmaker Odds Comments
Netherlands

 FIFA: 4
UEFA: 3		 W: 9
D: 0
L: 1
GF: 37
GA: 8		 June 2nd:
Netherlands 6-0 Northern Ireland
May 30th:
Netherlands 2-0 Slovakia
May 26th:
Netherlands 1-2 Bulgaria		 Win Comp: 6.50
Win Group: 2.80
Progress: 1.45		 The Netherlands certainly have no shortage in attacking talent. The squad features Robin van Persie and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar, the top scorers in the Premier League and Bundesliga respectively. This is in addition to Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Rafael van der Vaart, Ibrahim Afellay and the up-and-coming Kevin Strootman. The same can’t be said for their defence, however, with Johnny Heitinga (Everton) the only standout player. The team was heavily criticized for their negative tactics in the 2010 World Cup final (although to be fair they were excellent up until then), and they have since played more attacking football. This is backed up by the 37 goals they scored in qualifying – the most of any team to qualify. Their only loss in qualifying occurred against Sweden, at which time they had already qualified.
Denmark

 FIFA: 10
UEFA: 7		 W: 6
D: 1
L: 1
GF: 15
GA: 6		 June 2nd:
Denmark 2-0 Australia
May 26th:
Denmark 1-3 Brazil		 Win Comp: 81.00
Win Group: 13.00
Progress: 5.00		 The fact that the lowest ranked side in this group is ranked 7th in Europe and 10th in the world just goes to show what a nightmare of a group this is. Denmark are ranked higher than Russia – the highest ranked side in Group A, which highlights the disparity between Groups A and B. The Danish squad uses a 4-3-3 formation that can switch to 4-2-3-1. Keep an eye out for the attacking midfielder Christian Eriksen. He has been excellent for Ajax, and is arguably Denmark’s hottest prospect. A good performance in this competition could see him poached by a bigger club. As the outsiders, Denmark will be able to play without the burden of expectation, but they shouldn’t be underestimated. After all they did qualify ahead of Portugal.
Germany

 FIFA: 2
UEFA: 2		 W: 10
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 34
GA: 7		 May 31st:
Germany 2-0 Israel
May 26th:
Switzerland 5-3 Germany		 Win Comp: 3.75
Win Group: 2.00
Progress: 1.22		 Germany dominated their qualifying group and are the only team along with Spain to qualify with a perfect record. The squad knows each other well, with all but four members playing in the Bundesliga – eight of whom play for Bayern Munich. It is quite possible that all eight of these players will start, which goes a long way to explaining why the squad has gelled so well together. The German squad also uses the same 4-2-3-1 formation as Bayern Munich. The squad has a good balance of flair, speed and experience, and should go far in this competition.
Portugal

 FIFA: 5
UEFA: 4		 W: 5
D: 1
L: 2
GF: 21
GA: 12		 June 2nd:
Portugal 1-3 Turkey
May 26th:
Portugal 0-0 Macedonia		 Win Comp: 15.00
Win Group: 5.00
Progress: 2.10		 Portugal enter the competition having conceded the most number of goals during qualification of any participating team. They do have talisman Cristiano Ronaldo, but they often have to rely on him to fire if they are to succeed. Take nothing away from the rest of the squad, which includes Postiga, Nani, Meirles and Pepe – but they don’t tend to get many goals from midfield when Ronaldo isn’t on target. Another issue is the squad lacks in height, which could hurt them at set pieces.
GROUP C
This group may not be as heavyweight-laden as Group B, but Group C is certainly a very difficult one to get out of, with three sides ranked inside the top ten in Europe. The under 2.5 goals looks appealing for many of the matches in this group, especially for games involving the defensively-minded Italy and Ireland.
Team Rankings Qualifying Results 2012 Friendlies Bookmaker Odds Comments
Spain

 FIFA: 1
UEFA: 1		 W: 8
D: 0
L: 0
GF: 26
GA: 6		 June 3rd:
Spain 1-0 China
May 30th:
Spain 4-1 South Korea
May 26th:
Spain 2-0 Serbia		 Win Comp: 3.40
Win Group: 1.45
Progress: 1.07		 Spain continue to dominate international football. They won Euro 2008, the 2010 World Cup, and they enter this competition with a perfect 8-0-0 record in qualifying. The squad is packed with world class players, 12 of whom play for Barcelona or Real Madrid. Their midfield in particular is immensely strong, with Silva, Mata, Xavi Hernandez, Iniesta, Fabregas, Busquets and Alonso in the 23-man squad. They tend to play in a 4-2-3-1 formation, but can switch to 4-3-3 when it suits them. David Villa failed to regain fitness for this competition so Torres has an opportunity to make amends for his insipid showing in the 2010 World Cup. Villa scored 5 goals in their 2010 campaign and 7 goals in their qualifying campaign, so his absence is a big loss for Spain. Spain won every game in the knockout stage of the World Cup by a score of 1-0, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see similar score lines in this tournament. They never scored more than two goals in a game during the 2010 World Cup finals.
Italy

 FIFA: 12
UEFA: 9		 W: 8
D: 2
L: 0
GF: 20
GA: 2

June 1st:
Italy 0-3 Russia

Win Comp: 13.00
Win Group: 4.33
Progress: 1.62		 Italy qualified easily for this competition, but it must be said their qualifying group was not strong. Despite that they must be commended for entering this competition having conceded just two goals in qualifying – the fewest of any side. The country is under the cloud of another match fixing scandal so it will be interesting to see if that impacts their performance. Italy were poor in the 2010 World Cup, finishing bottom in a group that included Slovakia and New Zealand, so they will be looking to make amends here. The side plays with a 4-1-2-1-2 formation that uses its fullbacks to provide width. They lost 3-0 to Russia in a friendly on June 1st, which will be alarming for Italian fans.
Ireland

 FIFA: 18
UEFA: 13		 W: 6
D: 3
L: 1
GF: 15
GA: 7		 June 4th:
Hungary 0-0 Ireland
May 26th:
Ireland 1-0 Bosnia		 Win Comp: 81.00
Win Group: 14.00
Progress: 4.33		 Under the management of Italian manager Giovanni Trappatoni, Ireland currently play conservative football with a stubborn defence. They may just be the only side in the competition to use the 4-4-2 formation. You can expect them to be defensively minded and direct in attack. If they fall behind in a game they may find it hard to get back into the match without changing the structure that has worked well for them in qualification.
Croatia

 FIFA: 8
UEFA: 6		 W: 7
D: 2
L: 1
GF: 18
GA: 7		 June 2nd:
Norway 1-1 Croatia
May 25th:
Croatia 3-1 Estonia		 Win Comp: 34.00
Win Group: 7.00
Progress: 2.50		 Croatia will have their work cut out for them in this group. They like to play on the counter, but can struggle to break down teams that don’t constantly attack. During qualifying they were defeated 2-0 by Greece in a game where Greece held them at arms bay with a deep defence before capitalising from two late set pieces. All three sides in this group will pose a similar kind of threat. Both Italy and Ireland will play deep before countering, while Spain will be patient with ball in hand before attacking at key moments. That’s not to say Croatia don’t stand a real chance of progressing. They boast a strong side that contains the likes of Modric (Tottenham), Perasic (Brossia Dortmund), Pranjic (Bayern Munich) and Mandzukic (Wolfsburg).
GROUP D
On paper Group D is a two-horse race to win the group, although Sweden will fancy their chances of progressing and you can’t underestimate the value of home support for Ukraine.
Team Rankings Qualifying Results 2012 Friendlies Bookmaker Odds Comments

Ukraine

(co-hosts)

 FIFA: 50
UEFA: 28		 Host Nation June 5th:
Turkey 2-0 Ukraine
June 1st:
Austria 3-2 Ukraine
May 28th:
Ukraine 4-0 Estonia		 Win Comp: 41.00
Win Group: 4.50
Progress: 2.20		 Ukraine will be backed by strong home support, but they will find it difficult to progress to the knockout stage. They are only the 28th ranked nation in Europe and have been hit by injury. The squad has plenty of forwards to choose from but defence is turning into a bit of a nightmare for them. At least two, and quite likely three goalkeepers have been ruled out, along with arguably their best two defenders.
Sweden

 FIFA: 17
UEFA: 12		 W:8
D: 0
L: 2
GF: 31
GA: 11		 June 5th:
Sweden 2-1 Serbia
May 30th:
Sweden 3-2 Iceland		 Win Comp: 61.00
Win Group: 6.00
Progress: 2.75		 Sweden may not be the bookie’s favourite to progress, but they are a genuine chance of doing so. Under coach Erik Hamren they have adopted a 4-2-3-1 formation that sees striker Ibrahimovic drop in behind the main striker with good effect. He has license to roam anywhere, which has made Sweden more creative in attack. Sweden scored 31 goals in their qualifying campaign, which is the third highest of the qualifiers.
France

 FIFA: 16
UEFA: 11		 W: 6
D: 3
L: 1
GF: 15
GA: 4		 June 5th:
France 4-0 Estonia
May 31st:
France 2-0 Serbia
27th May:
France 3-2 Iceland		 Win Comp: 9.00
Win Group: 2.50
Progress: 1.45		 France enter this competition having being unbeaten in their last 20 matches. This run includes games against England, Brazil and Germany. The squad plays in a 4-2-3-1 formation and is strongest in midfield and attack. Their defence isn’t as highly rated, although they have only conceded 9 goals in the 21 matches under the management of Laurent Blanc.
England

 FIFA: 7
UEFA: 5		 W: 5
D: 3
L: 0
GF: 17
GA: 5		 June 2nd:
England 1-0 Belgium
May 26th:
Norway 0-1 England		 Win Comp: 12.00
Win Group: 2.80
Progress: 1.50		 Roy Hodgson takes the helm of England after Fabio Capello’s resignation in response to the FA’s decision to strip John Terry of his captaincy. The long domestic season has taken its toll on the squad, with Gareth Barry, Frank Lampard and now Gary Cahill ruled out. Also not participating are Rio Ferdinand (ostensibly for "footballing reasons") and Michael Carrick (who didn’t make himself available). In addition, Wayne Rooney is suspended for the first two games, leaving the side with a shortage of top-class strikers. Andy Carroll is expected to fill in for Rooney but he only has 4 caps for England. England always plays under the burden of expectation, but I get the impression that the English public’s expectations aren’t too high for this competition. This should benefit the side.

 

Knockout Phase

With the disparity in quality between Groups A and B, many will fancy the chances of both teams who progress from Group B to feature in the semi-finals. If Spain wins Group C then the reward for winning Group B will be to play on the opposite side of the draw to Spain.

Bookmaker Promotions

bet365

For any pre-match First Goalscorer, Last Goalscorer, Anytime Goalscorer, Half-Time/Full-Time, Correct Score or Scorecast bet on any Euro 2012 match, if the game finishes 0-0 bet365 will refund all losing bets on these markets.

Luxbet

Back a team in the Euro 2012 Match Result market and if they’re leading at half time, and then go on to lose, Luxbet will refund your wager with a Bonus Bet of up to $200. This is available on all Euro 2012 matches. This promotion is available to Australian residents with Australian currency accounts only.

Sportingbet

Bet $20 in the Euro 2012 Group Winner market and Sportingbet will match your first bet with a $20 bonus bet in the Euro 2012 Tournament Winner market.

Sportingbet also offers a Euro 2012 Accumulator Competition with $50,000 in cash prizes. The object of the competition is to make correct predictions on Euro 2012 matches run throughout the tournament. You will accumulate points based on the current odds at the time of your selection. For example, for Denmark (3.75) vs Portugal (1.85), if you select Denmark to win and they win the game you will receive 3.75 points onto your total. This applies for all of your selections in that round. Registration closes June 12th.

Betting

Top Goalscorer Betting

Below are the top goalscorer odds for the 36 most popular selections:

Below are the top goalscorers in Euro qualifying:

12 Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (Netherlands)
9 Miroslav Klose (Germany)
7 David Villa (Spain) — OUT INJURED
7 Cristiano Ronaldo (Portugal)
7 Mikael Forssell (Finland)
7 Robbie Keane (Republic of Ireland)
6 Mario Gomez (Germany)
6 Robin van Persie (Netherlands)

A large part of this wager will come down to how far each team progresses in the tournament. Robin van Persie and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar are two players to keep an eye on. They were the top scorers in the Premier League and Bundesliga this season, respectively. Both players have a good track record of scoring for their country as well. Ronaldo scored an eye-watering 60 goals in all competitions for Real Madrid this year, but he has a much lower conversion record for his country. Rooney is a risky bet given he will miss the first two group stage games due to suspension.

Tournament Winner Betting

Spain are the rightful favourites, although they do lose a lot with the absence of Villa. He was the competition’s top goal scorer in Euro 2008 (4 goals), the joint top goal scorer in the 2010 World Cup (5 goals) and Spain’s top goal scorer in Euro qualifying (7 goals). Can Torres get the job done in his absence?

Germany and the Netherlands averaged over three goals per game in qualifying, and you have to fancy their chances here. Both teams were beaten 1-0 by Spain in the 2010 World Cup (Germany in the semi-final, the Netherlands in the final) and both will be looking to make amends here. Germany also lost to Spain 1-0 in Euro 2008, so they in particular will hope to avoid the same fate. The winner and loser of Group B plays the loser and winner of Group A in the quarter-finals, so if they both get through the group stage there’s an excellent chance both sides will feature in the semi-finals.

France and England are two other sides with a chance to make a run deep into the knockout phase, although it’s hard to fancy England’s chances given the divided nature of the squad along club lines. France, much like their rugby union team, are a mercurial side. They can trouble the very best when they’re on song, but you never know which France will turn up.

If I had to wager, I’d be inclined to back both Germany and Netherlands to take the honours. There’s an excellent chance at least one of them will progress past the group stage, so you’ll have a good chance of being represented in the knockout stage. If all goes to form you could see both sides still alive in the semi-final stage. Spain will be a big roadblock, but I would want slightly higher odds for them in Villa’s absence.

Sources

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7 Responses to "Euro 2012 Preview and Betting Tips"

  2. Andy Marshall · Edit

    I had a feeling that the group stages of these big tournaments were traditionally low scoring, so I did some research for group stage matches only.

    2010 World Cup – 2 or fewer goals were scored in 31 of the 48 group stage matches (65%)
    2008 Euros – 2 or fewer goals were scored in 15 of the 24 group stage matches (63%)

    Given the odds for under 2.5 goals per game are roughly $1.87 for most games, you would have made a 21% profit betting on the unders during the 2010 World Cup group stage and a 17% at the 2008 Euro Group Stages.

    In saying all that though, betting on the unders makes a really depressing viewing experience as you are cheering for no goals!

    Reply
  4. admin · Edit

    Sportingbet are now offering the following promotion: Have a straight bet including draw market (ie. Win-Draw-Win market) in any game of Euro 2012 and get a 5% bonus for every goal your team wins by – up to 20%.

    Reply

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