It appears that Australian punters have more faith in Black Caviar than UK punters, with a sizeable gap existing between Australian and UK bookmaker odds. At the time of review Australian bookmakers were offering between 1.20 and 1.22 on the mare while UK bookmakers were offering between 1.28 and 1.29. The odds of 1.29 represent 45% more profit than 1.20, which just goes to highlight the discrepancies in the odds.
The higher UK odds have been partly driven by Ortensia’s unplaced effort in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier in the week. They have also been driven by UK punters’ concerns over how Black Caviar will perform overseas.
The lower Australian odds have been driven by lopsided wagering by local punters. At the time of writing Sportingbet Australia were holding over half a million on Black Caviar and less than $250 on all the other horses in the race combined. Black Caviar’s odds at Sportingbet opened at 1.30 but have been driven down by wagers as high as $300,000.
Below are some odds comparisons at the time of writing.
Black Caviar winner odds (Ascot – Diamond Jubilee Stakes – June 23rd)
Australian bookmakers:
Centrebet: 1.20
IASbet: 1.22
Luxbet: 1.20
Sportingbet: 1.20
Sportsbet: 1.22
Overseas bookmakers (all supporting AUD accounts):
bet365: 1.28
Betfred: 1.29
BetVictor: 1.286
Blue Square: 1.28
You can get 1.31 with Betfair before commission. With a 5% commission this equates to: 1.2945, which is the best we’ve found at the time of writing.
UPDATE:
Sportsbet have launched a promotion where if Black Caviar wins the Diamond Jubilee Stakes, they will double your winnings up to $100. For example, if you successfully wager $100 at 1.20 you would get $140.
Click here to learn more about the promotion.
Click here to view the latest Sportsbet odds for the Diamond Jubilee Stakes.
Since this article was first published Black Caviar’s odds both here and abroad have shortened. At 5:00 PM AEST on Friday we observed:
AUSTRALIA:
Centrebet: 1.18
IASbet: 1.15
Luxbet: 1.20
Sportingbet: 1.18
Sportsbet: 1.15
OVERSEAS:
bet365: 1.22
Betfred: 1.29 (the highest currently available)
BetVictor: 1.286
Blue Square: 1.25
The back odds for Black Caviar on Betfair are currently 1.23. With a 5% commission this equates to 1.2185.
This has been a persistent trend for Black Caviar. Usually the best time to back her is when the odds are first published because they so often trend lower in the lead up to the race.
The Diamond Jubilee Stakes will run on Saturday at 3:45 PM local time (12:45 AM AEST on Sunday).
Sportsbet members with Betfair accounts will be smiling 🙂