2017 State of Origin Game 1 – QLD v NSW – Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 1 of the 2017 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW.

In 2016 Queensland won the series for the 10th time in 11 years. They also host two of the three games this year but the bookmakers’ odds suggest this year’s winner is a toss up. NSW will be hoping for a repeat of 2014, when they won Game 1 in Brisbane and Game 2 in Sydney to secure the series.

2017 State of Origin Schedule

Each game will be televised on Channel Nine.

Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 31 May 2017, 8:15 PM AEST
Referees: Matt Cecchin, Gerard Sutton

Game 2 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
Wednesday, 21 June 2017, 8:15 PM AEST

Game 3 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 12 July 2017, 8:15 PM AEST

Recent State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 15-1-8 record in Sydney while Queensland are 17-6 in Brisbane since 2000. NSW have won five of their last eight at ANZ Stadium while Queensland have won seven of their last eight at Suncorp Stadium.

2017 State of Origin Game 1 Squads

(source: Wikipedia)

NSW should have the edge in the forwards but the backline looks a bit fullback-heavy. The squad has a lot of individual talent but how well will they gel?

Queensland have named a lot of familiar names, with the squad boasting far more Origin caps than New South Wales, but will their loyalty towards some of their ageing players backfire?

Queensland

1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Will Chambers, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Anthony Milford, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Dylan Napa, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Nate Myles, 11. Josh Papalii, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Sam Thaiday, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Jacob Lillyman
18th man: Jarrod Wallace

Some notable absentees are Greg Inglis (season-ending ACL injury), Johnathan Thurston (shoulder injury – return date uncertain), Matt Scott (season-ending ACL injury) and Corey Parker (retired). Will Chambers, Anthony Milford, Dylan Napa and Josh McGuire have been named to take their respective places. Billy Slater is another big name not present after he controversially wasn’t selected. Thurston’s absence is notable given it breaks a 36-game streak for him appearing for the Maroons.

Nevertheless there’s a familiar look to the squad, with 8 of the 13 starters from Game 3 last year returning to the starting line-up. Also Sam Thaiday is named on the bench and Josh McGuire started Game 2 (at prop) last year. A settled line-up has been one of the hallmarks of Queensland in recent years. In 2016 they used just 14 different players in the 13 starting positions for Games 1, 2 and 3.

New South Wales

1. James Tedesco, 2. Brett Morris, 3. Josh Dugan, 4. Jarryd Hayne, 5. Blake Ferguson, 6. James Maloney, 7. Mitchell Pearce, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Nathan Peats, 10. Andrew Fifita, 11. Josh Jackson, 12. Boyd Cordner (c), 13. Tyson Frizell

Interchange: 14. David Klemmer, 15. Wade Graham, 16. Jake Trbojevic, 17. Jack Bird
18th man: Matt Moylan
19th man: Jordan McLean
20th man: Jack De Belin

The starting line-up retains 7 of the starters from Game 3 in 2016. This is the beginning of a new era for NSW with former captain Paul Gallen retiring from State of Origin football. Jarryd Hayne is a notable inclusion. The decision to include him has a lot of critics so it will be interesting to see how he performs.

Suncorp Stadium History

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium Stadium tend to have higher total scores and wider winning margins than at ANZ Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 40.2 in Brisbane compared to 31.6 in Sydney. During this time, 10 games were won by 1-12 points and 13 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 19 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 16 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to eight 1-12 results and eight 13+ results in Brisbane.

Bookmaker Odds Comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section. Game 1 odds and markets can be viewed here.

Series Score Betting

Thirteen of the last fourteen series have been won by a 2-1 game scoreline, including the last six. This makes both the NSW 2-1 and QLD 2-1 scorelines at 2.50 (Sportsbet) look to be good value.

Compare the latest State of Origin series score odds

There’s hardly anything to separate QLD and NSW in the series winner market, with the best available odds of 1.91 (Sportsbet) for QLD and 1.95 (bet365) for NSW. If you think the historical trend of the Maroons winning 7 of their last 8 in Brisbane will continue, then Queensland represents good value, while if you think Queensland will be weaker due to their absent quartet, then NSW might be the way to go.

Compare the latest Sate of Origin series winner odds

Head-to-head Betting

At the time of writing the best head-to-head odds for Queensland were 2.04 with Pinnacle while the best odds for New South Wales were 1.93 with bet365.

This game will likely come down to the wire so I’m not prepared to make a tip in the head-to-head market. Queensland have the winning culture, particularly in Brisbane, but they look weaker on paper this year.

Line Betting

Most margins are around the +1.5 mark, so you might want to instead use the head-to-head market, depending on which has the lowest bookmaker margin.

Over/Under Betting

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 32.5 or 33.5

Fixtures in Brisbane have had much higher total scores than in Sydney, with an average score of 38.3 at Suncorp Stadium since 2007, compared to 26.4 at ANZ Stadium.

Since 2000, the average Game 1 score in Brisbane has been 37.0, however the last two totals were 28 in 2011 and 20 in 2014. Since 2011, Game 1’s have averaged 21.2 total points, with the highest total being 28. Since 2013 the scores have been even lower, with an average Game 1 score of 17.75 points.

Based on this I recommend taking under 33.50 at 1.90 (William Hill)

Winning Margin Betting

At the time of writing the best available margin odds were:
QLD by 1-12 – 2.80 (BlueBet)
NSW by 1-12 – 2.80 (BlueBet)
QLD by 13+ – 7.00 (Sportsbet)
NSW by 13+ – 6.50 (Sportsbet)
Draw – 17.0 (bet365)

Game 1’s tend to have narrow winning margins. Since 2004 the Game 1 winning margins have been 4.8 points on average, with a high of just 10 points.

For this reason I recommend backing both QLD 1-12 at 2.80 (BlueBet) and NSW 1-12 at 2.80 (BlueBet)

Other Markets

You can use our odds comparison tool to compare odds for the following popular player markets:

• Man of the match – shortest is Cameron Smith at 7.00. Hard to argue with that.
• Anytime try scorer – shortest is Corey Oates at 2.50. My tip is Dane Gagai at 2.75 (bet365). He scored 4 tries in last year’s series, including 3 at Suncorp Stadium.
• First try scorer – shortest is Corey Oates at 11.00
• Last tryscorer – shortest is Corey Oates at 11.00

For those who like high odds wagering, Sportsbet, is offering Exacta and Quinella markets for the 1st and 2nd try scorers. You can find them in the Player Markets tab. For an Exacta wager to win you have to pick the first and second try scorers in correct order, while the Quinella bet wins if you pick the first and second try scorers in either order. At the time of writing the shortest Exacta odds are 1st Oates / 2nd Gagai at 91.00, while the shortest Quinella odds are Oates / Gagai at 51.00. View the Sportsbet player markets

Best Bets

I expect this to be a close, low scoring game, so I recommend:

Under 33.50 at 1.90 (William Hill)
QLD 1-12 at 2.80 (BlueBet)
NSW 1-12 at 2.80 (BlueBet)