The following is a preview with betting tips for Game 1 of the 2019 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions are also listed for those who live outside NSW.
2019 State of Origin Schedule
Each game will be televised on Channel Nine.
Game 1 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Wednesday, 5 June, 8:10 PM AEST
Referees: Gerard Sutton, Ashley Klein
Game 2 – Perth – Optus Stadium
Sunday, 23 June, 5:50 PM AWST (7:50 PM AEST)
Game 3 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
Wednesday, 10 July, 8:10 PM AEST
State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | W | L | D | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | NSW | 3 | 0 | 0 | NSW 20-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 56-6 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2001 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 34-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 26-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 40-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2002 | QLD | 1 | 1 | 1 | NSW 32-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-18 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2003 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 12-25 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 27-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 36-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2004 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 9-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 34-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2005 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD | 3 | 0 | 0 | NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2017 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 4-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 16-18 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2018 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 22-12 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 18-14 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 16-1-9 record in Sydney while Queensland have gone 19-7 in Brisbane since 2000.
On neutral ground Queensland have won three since 2000, compared to two wins for NSW.
2019 State of Origin Game 1 Squads
Queensland
1. Kalyn Ponga, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Will Chambers, 4. Michael Morgan, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Cameron Munster, 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c), 8. Jai Arrow, 9. Ben Hunt, 10. Josh Papalii, 11. Felise Kaufusi, 12. Matt Gillett, 13. Josh McGuire
Interchange: 14. Moses Mbye, 15. Joe Ofahengaue, 16. Dylan Napa, 17. David Fifita
Reserves: 18. Tim Glasby, 19. Anthony Milford, 20. Kurt Capewell
Coach: Kevin Walters
Queensland will feature a new-look backline given the departures of Billy Slater, Greg Inglis and Valentine Holmes. Daly Cherry-Evans has recovered from injury in time and has been named as the side’s captain. Moses Mbye, Joe Ofahengaue and David Fifita are poised to make their State of Origin debuts from the bench. The Maroons welcome back Matt Gillett after he missed the last Origin series due to injury.
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco, 2. Nick Cotric, 3. Latrell Mitchell, 4. Josh Morris, 5. Josh Addo-Carr, 6. Cody Walker, 7. Nathan Cleary, 8. David Klemmer, 9. Damien Cook, 10. Paul Vaughan, 11. Boyd Cordner (c), 12. Tyson Frizell, 13. Jake Trbojevic
Interchange: 14. Jack Wighton, 15. Payne Haas, 16. Cameron Murray, 17. Angus Crichton
18th man: Ryan Matterson
Coach: Brad Fittler
The Blues have named five uncapped players in the squad: Cody Walker, Cameron Murray, Nick Cotric, Jack Wighton and Payne Haas. Tyson Frizell should be fit to play despite picking up a concussion in his last game before the team announcement. Luke Keary hasn’t been as lucky with his concussion, so Cody Walker gets the start at five-eighth. With Adam Reynolds and Mitchell Pearce out injured, Nathan Cleary has kept his place at halfback.
Suncorp Stadium history
Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium Stadium tend to have higher total scores and wider winning margins than at ANZ Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 39.0 in Brisbane compared to 31.7 in Sydney. During this time, 11 games were won by 1-12 points and 15 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, only 5 out of 26 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.
Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 18 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less, compared to nine 1-12 results and ten 13+ results in Brisbane.
Weather forecast
The Brisbane weather forecast for Wednesday is mostly sunny.
Bookmaker odds comparison
You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section.
Game 1 odds and markets can be viewed here.
Betting Tips
Series score
Over the last 19 years, only two Origin series were won 3-0: once by NSW in 2000 and once by Queensland in 2010. For this reason the best option is to dutch the NSW 2-1 QLD and NSW 1-2 QLD series score selections at 2.30 (Sportsbet) and 3.10 (Sportsbet) odds, respectively.
Head-to-head
At the time of writing the best odds were 2.05 (bet365) for Queensland and 1.86 (Betfair – including commission) for NSW.
Queensland have been installed as the home underdog for just the second time since 2006, despite the fact that history is on their side, with the Maroons having won 10 of the last 12 games at Suncorp Stadium. The Blues have been impacted by recent injuries leading into this clash and while NSW did win last year’s series, Game 2 could have gone either way. The issue for Queensland, however, is they have lost even more experience this season and there is a perception that they are out-matched in most positions on the field.
If I were to bet in the head-to-head market I would back Queensland at 2.05 (bet365), however I wouldn’t do so with a great deal of confidence. Given no game was won by more than 10 points last year, another option is to back both Queensland 1-12 at 3.20 (Neds) and NSW 1-12 at 3.00 (Neds).
Over/Under
Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 33.5. Only 7 of the last 24 Origin tests have gone over 33.5 points and Game 1 fixtures tend to have the lowest scores. The average Game 1 total over the last eight years is 24, with only 1 game going over 33.5.
Recommendation: back under 33.5 at 1.93 (bet365).
Man of the Match
The Betfair Hub, ESPN, BetEasy and Ladbrokes have all picked Damien Cook to be the man of the match, and it’s hard to argue with that. He is currently available at 7.46 (after commission) with Betfair.
Exacta and quinella markets for first & second try scorer
For those who enjoy high-odds wagering, Sportsbet offers exacta and quinella markets for the first and second try scorers in the State of Origin.
An exacta wager is a bet on the first and second try scorers in correct order. A quinella wager is a bet on the first two try scorers in either order. Note that the first and second try scorers could be the same person. The quinella odds range from 34.00 to 501.00 and the exacta odds range from 71.00 to 501.00.
To view the markets, go to the Sportsbet State of Origin page, click on the upcoming fixture, then scroll down and expand the ‘Player Markets’ tab.
Historically the best players to include in Origin exacta and quinella wagers are QLD wingers (Corey Oates and Dane Gagai) and NSW centres (Latrell Mitchell & Josh Morris), however given the recent Origin form of James Tedesco and Josh Addo-Carr, I would consider combinations involving them as well.
Dane Gagai is a standout given he has scored nine tries in ten Origin games. He failed to score in Origin 3 last year but he was playing out of position at centre in that match.