This article previews the Tuesday night fixtures in the final round of the UEFA Champions League group stage. Four places are still up for grabs in the round of 16, and five Europa League last-32 spots are still to be filled. Groups A to D play their final matches on Tuesday and Groups E to H play on Wednesday, with the round of 16 drawn on December 17th. Note that these kickoffs correspond to Wednesday and Thursday morning, AEDT.
Odds
Below are selected William Hill odds (subject to change):
Group A
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tottenham | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 2 | Inter Milan | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | FC Twente | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 5 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 2 |
Remaining fixtures:
FC Twente v Tottenham
Werder Bremen v Inter Milan
Analysis:
The only result left to be determined is whether Tottenham or Inter Milan will top this group. Tottenham will achieve this if they match or better Inter Milan’s result. FC Twente have guaranteed a Europa League spot due to a superior head-to-head record against Werder Bremen, so the two lower placed teams will only be playing for pride.
Tidbits, Tips and Betting Suggestions:
- FC Twente v Tottenham
- FC Twente has only pride to play for, while Tottenham have already qualified for the final 16. While the Londoners will want to top the group to avoid the likes of Barcelona and Real Madrid in the round of 16, they will also have one eye on the Chelsea fixture this weekend, so the squad choice and substitution timings will be interesting.
- For Tottenham, Kaboul, King, Woodgate and van der Vaart are unavailable due to injury.
- Most people believe this will end in either a draw or a victory for Tottenham, in which case a “half-ball” bet on Tottenham @ 1.35 odds (Luxbet) may be a good option.
- Werder Bremen v Inter Milan
- Like Tottenham, Inter Milan will be keen to top this group, however a second place finish isn’t the end of the world. The odds are similar to that in the Tottenham fixture, and likewise, I would recommend a half-ball bet on Inter @ 1.41 odds (Luxbet)
Group B
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Schalke 04 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| 2 | Lyon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Benfica | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 6 |
| 4 | Hapoel Tel-Aviv | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 4 |
Remaining fixtures:
Benfica v Schalke 04
Lyon v Hapoel Tel-Aviv
Analysis:
Schalke and Lyon have progressed to the last 16, while Hapoel and Benfica are left to battle it out for the Europa League place. To top the group, Lyon must beat Hapoel Tel-Aviv FC and hope Schalke lose to Benfica. If Lyon and Schalke both end on 10 points, Schalke will top the group due superior to head-to-head results. Benfica cannot overtake Lyon due to Lyon’s superior head-to-head goal difference.
Tidbits, Tips and Betting Suggestions:
- Benfica v Schalke 04
- Despite the table standings, Benfica are the favourites with bookmakers in this one. Schalke have yet to win on the road, having lost to Lyon and drawn with Hapoel, while Benfica need a win to ensure a Europa League spot. Given Benfica’s unpredictability (4-3 victory over Lyon followed by a 3-0 loss to Hapoel Tel-Aviv), I won’t be placing any wagers on this one.
- Lyon v Hapoel Tel-Aviv
- Lyon are heavy favourites here. Given they are playing at home, I would back them to win, but I’m not sure if 1.36 odds is sufficient reward for the risk. It is marginal though, I would accept 1.50 odds on Lyon if those odds were available.
Group C
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man Utd | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| 2 | Valencia | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Rangers | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Bursaspor | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 15 | -14 | 0 |
Remaining fixtures:
Bursaspor v Rangers
Man Utd v Valencia
Analysis:
Manchester United and Valencia are guaranteed progression to the knockout stages. Man Utd will finish top unless Valencia defeat them at Old Trafford. Rangers are guaranteed to finish third and progress to the Europa League.
Tidbits, Tips and Betting Suggestions:
- Bursaspor v Rangers
- Both teams have nothing to play for here, with Rangers ensured a Europa League spot. Rangers have only scored 2 goals this campaign, while Bursaspor have only found the back of the net once, so I would consider backing a low scoring result. Rangers won the corresponding home fixture 1-0, but Bursaspor are the bookmakers’ favourites to pick up victory here. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a scoreline somewhere along the lines of 0-0, 1-0 or 1-1.
- Man Utd v Valencia
- Man Utd sit top of the table, having yet to concede a goal in the Champions League this season. Valencia are second, 3 points below them, despite having scored 14 goals to Man Utd’s 6. I would back Man Utd here, as they are notoriously difficult to play at Old Trafford. 1.73 odds seem to be fair value. Just note that Man Utd only need a draw to top the group. The reason you’re getting more than 1.50 odds is because United will likely play a reduced strength side. You could place a draw-no-bet wager on Man Utd @ 1.22 (Sportsbet) if you’re more risk averse.
Group D
| Rank | Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 3 | 9 | 11 |
| 2 | FC Copenhagen | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Rubin Kazan | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Panathinaikos | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 2 |
Remaining fixtures:
Barcelona v Rubin Kazan
FC Copenhagen v Panathinaikos
Analysis:
Barcelona are guaranteed progression to the knockout stages. The other qualification place will go to either Rubin Kazan or Copenhagen. The team that misses out will get a Europa League spot, with Panathinaikos out of contention. Rubin and Copenhagen have an even head-to-head record, but Rubin would finish ahead of Copenhagen if they both end on 7 points due to a superior goal difference in that scenario.
Tidbits, Tips and Betting Suggestions:
- Barcelona v Rubin Kazan
- Rubin Kazan have everything to play for in this fixture, although an FC Copehagen win would see their efforts be in vain. Barcelona have secured top spot, so I would expect them to field a weakened side. Rubin Kazan held Barcelona to a draw in the corresponding home fixture, and another draw may be sufficient to get them into the round of 16. Clearly, the bookmakers see a Barcelona victory on the cards here, and the fact that it’s a home fixture will ensure the side puts in a solid shift. For this reason I would back a Barcelona victory.
- FC Copenhagen v Panathinaikos
- Copenhagen enjoyed an away victory over Panathinaikos, and will be desperate for a repeat result at home, as a win would ensure progression to the final 16. Panathinaikos are another team that are simply playing for pride. The Greek side has scored only one goal this campaign and conceded 10, so I would anticipate a Copenhagen victory here. If you’re more risk averse, you could back Cophenhagen for a half-ball bet @ 1.07 odds (Luxbet) or a draw-no-bet wager @ 1.11 odds (Sportsbet)
Tie-Break Rules
- The results of games between the teams in the tie (if still tied, by goal difference and then by away goals counting double).
- Goal difference in all group games.
- Highest number of goals scored in all games.
- Highest UEFA ranking over the previous five seasons.