AFL Round 6 – Preview and Betting Tips

CHEEKY AFL MULTI

This is the most conservative multi you will find!

Port Adelaide +39.5

Richmond to win

St Kilda +39.5

Essendon first team to 25

Collingwood -15.5

@ 3.27 (Centrebet)

FRIDAY NIGHT

SYDNEY v CARLTON – SCG (7.40pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Sydney 14.15 (99) def Carlton 13.16 (94), Elimination Final, 2010

AT SELECTION: Our favourite Irish AFL player finally appears in season 2011. Yes, that’s right Tadgh Kennelly will be running and bouncing his way out of the Sydney backline this Friday night. Compact tough nut Jarred Moore is also included for the red and white. Gary Rohan misses with a knee injury, while a hamstring strain has sidelined first year player Alex Johnson. Carlton have named an unchanged side.

WHO IS MISSING? With Kennelly back, running defender Nick Malceski and full forward Daniel Bradshaw are Sydney’s only key players out injured. With Chris Yarran’s hamstring strain sufficiently healed, Matthew Kreuzer is still the only Blue sidelined. Kreuzer should be back in the VFL in two weeks.

PREVIEW: Much has been made of Carlton’s poor recent record against Sydney, particularly at the SCG. This will obviously have some effect on the mindset of the current players, but I doubt it will significantly impact the result of this game. Both teams play a tight, contested brand of football, backing themselves to win the clearances and then locking the ball in their half of the field once it gets there. This game won’t be a high scoring affair, but I am tipping the Swans to win a close one. Carlton are more than good enough to win, but they rely heavily on goals from their small forwards, and I am not sure there will be enough space on the small SCG for players like Jeff Garlett and Eddie Betts to work their magic.

TIP: Sydney to win by 9 points

ANDY’S BET: Either team to win by 15 points or less @ 3.00 (Sportingbet)

 

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

NORTH MELBOURNE v PORT ADELAIDE – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: North Melbourne 19.15 (129) def Port Adelaide 14.9 (93), R13, 2010

AT SELECTION: Three changes have been made by both clubs, and none are injury enforced. North Melbourne are looking to fresh youth to get through a tough period. Inexperienced trio Robbie Tarrant, Cruize Garlett and Cameron Richardson make way for the even less experienced Ben Speight, Jamie Macmillan and debutant Kieran Harper. Harper is a medium sized forward with decent skills. The Power have lost faith in some of their veterans. Coach Matthew Primus has had enough of the poor form from Steven Salopek and Jacob Surjan, as well as Jason Davenport. Ruckman Dean Brogan was sorely missed against Gold Coast. He returns for this one along with ball winner Kane Cornes and utility Paul Stewart.

WHO IS MISSING? Port Adelaide are still without skipper Dom Cassisi and power forward Jay Schulz. Classy midfielder Danyle Pearce is fully fit, but not in favour. Kangaroos ruckman Hamish McIntosh is still no closer to a return. Youngsters Matt Campbell and Ryan Bastinac are also out injured.

PREVIEW: Saturday afternoon’s match involves two teams who have been under the media spotlight this week. North Melbourne lost their fourth game in a row against Richmond last Sunday, while Port Adelaide were sensationally beaten by the Gold Coast after being 40 points up late in the third quarter. North Melbourne fought valiantly to keep in touch with the Tigers in the second half despite clearly having the inferior fitness. When they won the ball across half back, no North Melbourne players were able to run and spread out towards the space on the wings meaning a slow a patient build up that was easily contained by Richmond. This is likely to be another end to end match on the slick Etihad Stadium surface. Port Adelaide will be boosted by the return of ruckman Dean Brogan and veteran ball getter and tagger Kane Cornes. The latter may even get a run with role on Brent Harvey. Look for Daniel Motlop to build on his recent goal kicking form. The freakish one could even be worth a cheeky punt for most goals. I’m on the Power to run over the top of the Kangaroos in the last quarter.

TIP: Port Adelaide to win by 12 points

ANDY’S BET: Port Adelaide +15.5 points @ 2.00 (Readbet)

 

SATURDAY NIGHT

RICHMOND v BRISBANE – MCG (7.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Brisbane Lions 12.14 (86) def by Richmond 15.15 (105), R13, 2010

AT SELECTION:  Richmond make one change with the suspended Daniel Jackson making way for Jake Batchelor. Brisbane make two changes, defender Matt Maguire replaces forward Aaron Cornelius, while there is a first year player swap. Claye Beams replaces the injured Rohan Bewick across half forward.

WHO IS MISSING? Richmond are just about at full strength, although Jackson will serve his one match suspension. Brisbane are still without gun forward Jonathan Brown, decent forward Brent Staker and exiting defender Josh Drummond. Three good players they are desperately missing.

PREVIEW: The young Tiger cubs came to the fore last weekend. Dustin Martin is surely not a second year player. The 19 year old is just incredible. You would be wise to tune in for this match, if only to watch the midfielder don’t argue his way down the field. For those not familiar with the don’t argue, it is simply putting a stern hand into the upper chest of a would be tackler, knocking them to the deck. It is a move most effective when used by big kids on little kids, but Martin, the little kid in this the big league, uses it on anyone. Brisbane have been brave in three of their four defeats so far this season. If Richmond get their free flowing game going, their passionate fans will have plenty to cheer. This is a game the Tigers could win by plenty.

TIP: Richmond by 25 points

ANDY’S BET: Richmond to win by 18 points or more @ 2.05 (Readbet)

 

ADELAIDE v ST KILDA – AAMI STADIUM (7.40pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Adelaide 9.11 (65) def St Kilda 5.7 (37)

AT SELECTION: Perhaps the biggest omission from any team this weekend is that of Adelaide’s Bernie Vince. Probably the most talented Crows midfielder going into the start of the year, Vince has not enjoyed a happy first 5 rounds, culminating in his axing. Defender Andy Otten has struggled in his return to football after missing all of 2010 with a serious knee injury. He is also chopped from the squad. Promising defender Phil Davis is brought back in, as is youngster Matthew Wright. The Saints have included two tall defenders, Will Johnson and Jason Blake, at the expense of two tall forwards, Justin Koschitzke (ankle injury) and Rhys Stanley. Classic Ross Lyon coaching!

WHO IS MISSING? There are four first choice Crows missing this game due to injury. Talented midfielders David Mackay and Rory Sloane, mid-sized forward Jason Porplyzia and dependable defender Scott Stevens. St Kilda are obviously still without champion midfielder Lenny Hayes. Tall timber Michael Gardiner, and now Justin Koschitzke, are also sidelined.

PREVIEW: The longest journey starts with the smallest step. It is a horrible cliché, but for some reason I feel compelled to write it about St Kilda. Grand Finalists for the last two years, St Kilda version 2011 had been completely stationary. Until last week. The red, white and blacks crawled to an unconvincing victory over winless Brisbane at the Gabba. It wasn’t anything special, but it was a victory, and it put a smile on the players’ faces. With a load lifted from their shoulders, I anticipate a more dashing and daring St Kilda in this one. Adelaide bring back Phil Davis just in time to get the job on Nick Riewoldt, however I am mystified at the axing of key midfielder Bernie Vince. Vince is one of Adelaide’s few match winners and in his absence, I can see the Crows getting smashed in the middle. St Kilda’s march towards the top 8 will gather momentum.

TIP: St Kilda to win by 17 points

ANDY’S BET: St Kilda to win by 1-39 points @ 2.85 (Centrebet)

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

ESSENDON v GOLD COAST – ETIHAD STADIUM (1.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: N/A

AT SELECTION: Essendon hand a debut to young midfielder Michael Hibberd. Hibberd was excellent in pre-season and only injuries have delayed his arrival to the real stuff. Andrew Welsh and Alwyn Davey have been drafted into the extended bench for this Sunday match. Somebody will need to make way for Hibberd. I’m tipping it might be fellow first year player Dyson Heppell. The mop haired defender has been outstanding, particularly last week, but the Bombers might elect to nurse their young star through the year. Gold Coast center half back Nathan Bock is suspended for this game. He is replaced in that position by debutant Steven May.

WHO IS MISSING? Bock will be doing time this weekend, joining fellow suspended Suns defender Campbell Brown. The Bombers are still without knee injury victims Courtney Dempsey and Jason Winderlich, as well as key defender Tayte Pears and utility David Myers.

PREVIEW: Where were you when…? The finish to that sentence will involve the first victory by the Gold Coast Suns. Most experts didn’t see the new boys winning a game for many weeks, some thought all season. I was out and about last Saturday afternoon. At about half past five I was wondering past a local pub when a loud roar exploded from the venue. I peered in the window and saw a large crowd gathered around the tv screen watching the footy. They were watching the Gold Coast Suns. I joined them for the final, pulsating minutes as the fledgling club secured an amazing win. For a moment we were all Suns supporters. It will be back to reality this week though. Essendon were more than impressive against the table topping Magpies on Anzac Day. Unfortunately the Bombers did not take their early chances and were always playing catch up footy. Stewart Crameri played a particularly good game getting the better of Harry O’Brien. Few do that like Crameri did. I think the Bombers will win comfortably, but Gold Coast at the line is worth a nibble.

TIP: Essendon to win by 48 points

ANDY’S BET: Gold Coast + 66.5 points @ 2.03 (Readbet)

 

COLLINGWOOD v WESTERN BULLDOGS – MCG (4.40pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Collingwood 17.22 (124) def Western Bulldogs 8.14 (62), Qualifying Final, 2010

AT SELECTION: Collingwood’s ruck yo-yo continues. For the third successive week Darren Jolly and Cameron Wood trade places. Jolly’s knee flared up on Anzac Day and he will be rested this weekend. The Bulldogs lose three key players to injury. Full forward Barry Hall, flanker Shaun Higgins and ruckman Ben Hudson all picked up knocks over in the west last Monday night.

WHO IS MISSING? Jolly joins key defender Nathan Brown on the Pies injury list. The Bulldogs injury list is now huge. Hall, Higgins and Hudson join Daniel Giansiracusa, Ryan Hargrave and Easton Wood in the treatment room at the kennel.

PREVIEW: Jolly is a big out for Collingwood because Wood was exposed in the ruck and around the ground two weeks ago by Richmond. The good news for the Pies, and bad news for the Bulldogs, is that their number one ruckman, Ben Hudson, will be missing as well. Key players Barry Hall and Shaun Higgins are also missing for the Doggies. Collingwood are still only in second gear. If they find third against this young Bulldogs team, the margin will be going north.

TIP: Collingwood to win by 50 points

ANDY’S BET: Collingwood by 33 points or more @ 2.00 (Readbet)