AFL Round 8 – Preview and Betting Tips

Last weekend was the most successful of the column so far! Many of the suggested bets came through and, to top it off, the cheeky multi got up as well. It was a very, very cheeky multi too, with the three legs combining for odds of 14.95, meaning a $140 profit from the suggested $10 outlay. The action on the field was fairly hot as well. The Gold Coast Suns won their second game of the season beating rivals Brisbane in the Q Clash, and Carlton held off a spirited St Kilda in an entertaining Monday night match. This weekend it’s the much anticipated top of the table showdown between Collingwood and Geelong. The derby between Fremantle and West Coast should also be a beauty, with the match actually meaning a great deal more than recent encounters between the two.

Season Betting Tally (After Round 7)

Wagered = $590

Collected = $692.30

Profit/Loss = + $102.30

% Profit/Loss = + 17.3%

Tips = 36.5*

*Note: The draw is treated differently depending on your tipping competition. I have assumed it to be 0.5 tips.

 

CHEEKY AFL MULTI

Adelaide first team to 25 points @ 1.31

Sydney to win by 16 points or more @ 1.30

Western Bulldogs to lead at the end of every quarter @ 3.15

Combined Odds @ 5.35 (Centrebet)

FRIDAY NIGHT

GEELONG v COLLINGOOD – MCG (7.40pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Collingwood 18.12 (120) def Geelong 11.13 (79), Preliminary Final, 2010

AT SELECTION:  There are a couple of surprise selections for this big, top of the table clash. Geelong spearhead Cam Mooney has been ruled out with a slight knee injury, while Collingwood half back flanker Ben Johnson misses with a back complaint. Johnson is the sole change for the Magpies, with full back Chris Tarrant returning. Steve Johnson and Cameron Ling come into the Geelong side at the expense of Mooney and young player Allen Christenson. With Mooney going out, and a few showers expected, Chris Tarrant might yet make way for a smaller, more mobile option. Perhaps Dayne Beams will receive a late call up?

PREVIEW: The two remaining undefeated teams will contest this Friday night classic. Collingwood and Geelong are the current league powerhouses and sit clear at the top with six wins apiece. Collingwood’s rampant forward press has been well documented, while Geelong have been quietly going about their business under new coach Chris Scott. The Cats haven’t changed their game plan much under Scott, only tweaking things slightly, so it will be interesting to see if they have developed a game style to overcome Collingwood, remembering that it was the Pies that tore them to shreds in the first half on last season’s Preliminary Final. It doesn’t look like they have changed enough just yet, but they do have a few things in their favour. Collingwood are missing ruckman Darren Jolly meaning Cameron Wood could get monstered at the stoppages by big Cat Brad Ottens. Geelong have an ageing list and after a long year, could not keep pace with the young Collingwood team in last season’s finals. We are only a third of the way through this season, so older Cats players should still be in peak fitness. Rain has also been forecast, suiting the seasoned Geelong bodies. All these factors tilt things Geelong’s way, but I am not going to tip against the Pies until I see any of these chinks in their armour actually exposed. With the expected rain, there should be plenty of in close contested footy. Collingwood’s Luke Ball is just the man for these conditions and is a much better chance to win the most disposals Group B than the $11 odds suggest.

TIP: Collingwood by 15 points

ANDY’S BET: Collingwood by 1-39 points @ 2.25 (Centrebet)

ANDY’S BET: Luke Ball most disposals Group B @ 11.00 (TAB Sportsbet)

 

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

NORTH MELBOURNE v MELBOURNE – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Melbourne 15.13 (103) def by North Melbourne 17.11 (113), R22, 2010

AT SELECTION: Interestingly the Kangaroos have included two key forwards for this one. Perhaps they are looking to address their lack of attacking prowess? Lachie Hansen and Aaron Edwards are the two inclusions, with midfielder Liam Anthony and key position prospect Cam Pederson both dropped. Melbourne have been hit hard by injuries as both ruckman Mark Jamar and running defender Jack Grimes have been sidelined by injury.  Jamar miss will four weeks with a knee injury, while the news is even worse for Grimes, he won’t return until 2012. The Demons will also be without promising midfielder Jack Trengove after the ball winner was harshly suspended for three weeks because of a rough tackle. Forward Matthew Bate has been omitted. Underlying the importance of Jamar to Melbourne, the Demons have had to include two big men to cover the injured ruckman. Michael Newton and Stefan Martin are tall timber brought in. Youngster Jamie Bennell is the other Melbourne inclusion.

PREVIEW: This match is so finely balanced. Both teams have fairly even lists, although I would rate Melbourne marginally in front. Unfortunately for the Dees, many of their key men will be missing this Saturday. Three of their stars are missing from team that ran onto the field last weekend. Those players are Jack Grimes, Mark Jamar, and now Jack Trengove due to an unlucky suspension. Ruckman Jamar is the loss that will hurt them the most. His replacements, Stefan Martin and Michael Newton, are both unproven in the position. North won both matches played between the two teams last year and I believe they play the Etihad Stadium far better than their opposition.

TIP: North Melbourne to win by 14 points

ANDY’S BET: North Melbourne to win by 1-39 points @ 2.65 (Readbet)

 

ADELAIDE v GOLD COAST – AAMI STADIUM (3.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: N/A

AT SELECTION: Adelaide coach Neil Craig made a big statement at the selection table, dropping massively talented forward Taylor Walker. Walker it appears will be the scapegoat for the Crows’ horrible loss last weekend. Brad Symes and Jared Petrenko have also been omitted. Running defender Richard Tambling returns for Adelaide after suspension, while youngster Jack Gunston and back up ruckman James Sellar earn rare selections. Gold Coast again make their usual raft of changes with four alterations to their winning side from last week. Defender and vice-captain Campbell Brown leads the ins for the Suns. Steven May and Seb Tape are also recalled, while ruck prospect Tom Nicholls will make his debut. Midfielder Daniel Harris is rested to get over a hip injury, Daniel Gorringe is out with a hamstring injury, while Jack Hutchins and Josh Toy are rotated out.

PREVIEW: Taylor Walker out is a big, and surprisingly self-inflicted, loss. The Crows will be leaving a lot of their scoring to Kurt Tippett, who is still quite inconsistent. The one thing in Adelaide’s favour is their ability to bounce back at home. They are a different team at AAMI Stadium and run into a Gold Coast squad ripe for the picking after a gutsy win last weekend. Last time the Gold Coast had a win they followed it up with a belting by Essendon. If it stays dry, Adelaide should do similar wonders to their percentage.

TIP: Adelaide by 52 points

ANDY’S BET: Adelaide to win by 38 points or more @ 2.00 (Readbet)

ANDY’S BET: Richard Douglas most disposals in Group B @ 7.00 (TAB Sportsbet)

 

SATURDAY NIGHT

BRISBANE v ESSENDON – GABBA (7.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Essendon 10.8 (68) def by Brisbane 14.11 (95), R21, 2010

AT SELECTION: Brisbane have gone for youth in a bid to get their first win of the season. Young running players Sam Sheldon, Ryan Harwood and Rohan Bewick all come into the team, with Andrew Raines (concussion), Claye Beams (ankle) and Tom Collier (omitted) all making way. The Bombers make only the one forced change. Backman David Myers takes the place of Brent Stanton (concussion).

PREVIEW: Another close loss for Brisbane last weekend. The Lions have been a winning chance at some stage in the last quarter in five of their six matches this season. Sometime soon they are going to crack a victory. I don’t think that victory will come this Saturday night against high flying Essendon. Although a word of caution for those wishing to plonk their hard earned on a convincing Bombers victory, Essendon have not won interstate on their last seven visits. Even though they are full of confidence and have mastered their forward press, it is their poor interstate record that is making me think an Essendon victory will be hard fought.

TIP: Essendon by 12 points

ANDY’S BET: Essendon to win by 1-39 points @ 2.25 (Readbet)

 

SYDNEY v PORT ADELAIDE – SCG (7.40pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Port Adelaide 8.7 (55) def by Sydney 14.9 (93), R12, 2010

AT SELECTION: Sydney are boosted by the return of key defender Lewis Roberts-Thomson and also include debutant Luke Parker, who will play in midfield. Jarred Moore has been dropped and Mike Pyke is out with a quad injury. For the Power, hard bodied players Matt Thomas and Steven Salopek are back, and highly touted youngster Ben Jacobs will debut. Poor David Rodan misses with another knee injury, while small forward Cameron Hitchcock and midfielder Paul Stewart have both been dropped.

PREVIEW: Port have been awful away from AAMI Stadium. The Power have lost their three interstate matches against Collingwood, Geelong and North Melbourne by 75, 79 and 60 points respectively. That is astonishingly poor. The bookies have given no value for a Sydney win, and as I am not sure on the margin of victory, I am trying an exotic bet. Kane Cornes was in great touch last week, racking up disposals at will. He is also generally a big tackler, which inflates a dream team score. Cornes should get more possessions than his Dream Team opponent Jude Bolton, so if he can match Bolton in the tackles, it could be a nice option to chuck some coins on Cornes for a head to head dream team success.

TIP: Sydney to win by 32 points

ANDY’S BET: Kane Cornes to beat Jude Bolton H2H in AFL dream team @ 1.95 (Centrebet)

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

HAWTHORN v ST KILDA – MCG (1.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: St Kilda 14.3 (87) drew Hawthorn 13.9 (87), R17, 2010

AT SELECTION: Defender Matt Suckling and ruckman David Hale come into the Hawthorn side at the expense of Rick Ladson and Brent Renouf. Ryan Schoenmakers, Michael Osborne and Luke Bruest are all some chance of a game, making the extended interchange bench. For the Saints, midfielder Farren Ray and full back Zac Dawson return, with the suspended Leigh Montagna and axed Raph Clarke making way. Ryan Gamble, Nicholas Winmar and Dean Polo have been drafted into the extended bench.

PREVIEW: The Saints just don’t know how to win. The red, white and blacks had all the momentum in the last few minutes and actually managed to hit the front in the dying stages last week against Carlton. Despte having the game at their mercy, the Saints still managed to concede a goal, and the game, at the death. St Kilda are really low on confidence right now, with key players and leaders Nick Riewoldt and Brendan Goddard down on output. Ross Lyon fired his players up for Monday night, but that sort of agro is not a sustainable game plan in the long term. Hawthorn, on the other hand, won a match last week they looked likely to lose until the last quarter. Some of their more experienced players, including Sam Mitchell and Chance Bateman really stood up in that final exchange. Hawthorn look to have the greater goal scoring potential and should overcome another spirited St Kilda challenge.

TIP: Hawthorn by 15 points

ANDY’S BET: Hawthorn to win by 1-24 points @ 3.35 (Centrebet)

 

WESTERN BULLDOGS v RICHMOND – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Richmond 7.6 (48) def by Western Bulldogs 17.18 (120), R2, 2010

AT SELECTION: Richmond have won three in a row and are likely to field an unchanged team. The Bulldogs meanwhile have lost their last three and will make at least two changes. Tom Williams is out injured and Zephaniah Skinner has been dropped after just one game. Ryan Hargrave will play his first game this season for the Doggies after an injury interrupted pre-season, he comes in as a like for like change for Williams at center half back. There is still no room in the backline for Brian Lake. At least one of Dylan Addison, Thomas Liberatore, Nathan Djerkurra and James Mulligan will be included, with all named on the extended bench.

PREVIEW: On present form, this is a match the Bulldogs should not win. However, they still have a very strong record at this venue, winning seven of their last eight at Etihad, while Richmond have only won two of their last five here. The Bulldogs have also got an extra bit of experience in the middle. Quartet Matthew Boyd, Daniel Cross, Ryan Griffen and Adam Cooney have got a few more seasons worth of poise and strength over young superstars like Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin. Dale Morris may also be able to play the human glove role, playing tightly on dangerous Richmond forward and gamebreaker Jack Riewoldt. As I said before, it doesn’t make sense to pick the Doggies on form, or even with their injury list, but this one is just a gut feel.

TIP: Western Bulldogs to win by 24 points

ANDY’S BET: Western Bulldogs to win @ 1.74 (Sportsbet)

 

WEST COAST v FREMANTLE – PATERSONS STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)

LAST TIME: Fremantle 24.16 (160) def West Coast 13.7 (85), R18, 2010

AT SELECTION: West Coast have not yet made a change to their team from last week. Andrew Gaff, Pat McGinnity and Chris Masten have all made the extended bench. Fremantle have dropped Dylan Roberton, with his replacement to come from one of Ryan Crowley, Jesse Crichton, Jack Anthony or Jon Griffin.

PREVIEW: As has been the case with almost all rounds this season, there is a cracking game to start the weekend round and a belter to finish it. This week is no exception. The Western Derby is a great way to conclude Round 8. I am giving the edge to Fremantle due to their slightly better – in my opinion – defence. Antoni Grover and Luke McPharlin are a great full back and center half back double act. I just think Freo will be able to save more goals than the Eagles, so if they can break even across the middle, the Dockers can sneak a very important victory.

TIP: Fremantle by 11 points

ANDY’S BET: Fremantle to win @ 1.97 (Pinnacle Sports)