AFL Round 9 – Preview and Betting Tips

This is my last column for a few weeks as I go travelling in Europe for the next 6 weeks. But, don’t fear footy fans, there is a more than able replacement lined up to keep you in the know. It might be a good time for me to abandon ship after a horror show of betting for Round 8. Only 3 of the 11 suggested bets came through, with many of the margin bets succumbing by less than a goal. This week should be a great chance to get back into the profit with many even money games that should become winners with a bit of insight.

Season Betting Tally ( After Round 8 )

Wagered = $710 – $10 per suggested bet

Collected = $752.60

Profit/Loss = + $42.60

% Profit/Loss = + 6.0%

Tips = 42.5*

*Note: The draw is treated differently depending on your tipping competition. I have assumed it to be 0.5 tips.

 

CHEEKY AFL MULTI

Fremantle to win @ 1.54

Richmond +24.5 @ 1.62

Sydney to won by 1-39 @ 2.59

Combined Odds @ 6.45 (Centrebet)

FRIDAY NIGHT

CARLTON v GEELONG – MCG (7.40pm AEST)

PREVIEW: Geelong split the AFL season apart last Friday night. Under lights at the MCG the Cats dismantled the previously all-conquering Collingwood outfit. They eventually won the match by three points, but it was the manner of the victory that will linger in the minds of many. For the first time, Geelong really played the forward press game style that has been in vogue in 2011 after Collingwood’s success with it last season. The Magpies had already struggled against teams that had used the same tactic against them, notable Carlton and Essendon. But what Geelong did to Collingwood really had to be seen to be believed. The Magpies just couldn’t clear the ball from their defensive zone. This owed much to Geelong’s center square dominance, with ruckman Brad Ottens palming the ball to his midfielders to give the side an advantage right from the get go. That Geelong didn’t win by five to six goals was really only due to their inaccurate kicking for goal. Carlton are fresh off the bye and will have to overcome the dreaded bye hoodoo that has been plaguing teams returning after a week of rest. Carlton should be able to match Geelong at the stoppages, but might just not have the class to beat Geelong at the death. Although it should be noted that Carlton have come through tense last quarter struggles against Sydney and St Kilda in recent weeks. This will be an absolute beauty and I’m backing Geelong to edge it. James Kelly looks a bet for the most disposals in his group. He is the best ball winner of those listed.

TIP: Geelong by 15 points

ANDY’S BET: Geelong to win by 1-39 @ 2.34 (Centrebet)

ANDY’S BET: James Kelly most disposals in Group B @ 3.25 (TAB Sportsbet)

SATURDAY AFTERNOON

ST KILDA v MELBOURNE – ETIHAD STADIUM (2.10pm AEST)

PREVIEW: The Saints kicked the first five against a powerful Hawthorn team. The match was at the mercy when some of Hawthorn’s tall timber started going down with injuries. Unfortunately for the Saints, they were the ones who ran out of steam, culminating in another disappointing defeat, which leaves their season teetering on the edge. The Saints are really only missing Hayes from the team that took them to the business end of last season, so they will be bouncing back soon. I think it will be this weekend against a Melbourne team that is struggling to cover the loss of ruckman Mark Jamar and talented youngsters Jack Grimes, Jack Trengove and Tom Scully. The Saints aren’t in good enough form to blow sides away, so I’ve stuck with a conservative margin.

TIP: St Kilda to win by 17 points

ANDY’S BET: St Kilda to win by 1-39 @ 2.30 (Centrebet)

 

PORT ADELAIDE v FREMANTLE – AAMI STADIUM (2.40pm AEST)

PREVIEW: Until Port start to win games consistently I am going to back against them and accumulate some money. Fremantle have been horrible the last two weeks. Surely they can’t go three weeks in a row in this form. Port Adelaide have got a decent looking forward line with Jay Schulz, Daniel Motlop, Robbie Gray, Justin Westhoff and Brett Ebert all dangerous around the big sticks. However, Fremantle’s defence held up really well in spite of consistent West Coast pressure last weekend, and should be too strong for the Power to breach.

TIP: Fremantle to win by 24 points

ANDY’S BET: Fremantle to win by 11 points or more @ 2.00 (Readbet)

 

SATURDAY NIGHT

BRISBANE v NORTH MELBOURNE – GABBA (7.40pm AEST)

PREVIEW: I’m keeping things simple this week. The big man is back at Brisbane, and I’m tipping he will get them across the line. Jonathan Brown equals a Brisbane win. North Melbourne have struggled to contain the power forwards this season and will struggle even more now that key defender Nathan Grima has been ruled out with a hand injury. Brisbane have been competitive this year without cracking it for a win…until now.

TIP: Brisbane to win by 20 points

ANDY’S BET: Brisbane to win @ 1.95 (Multiple Sites)

 

RICHMOND v ESSENDON – MCG (7.40pm AEST)

PREVIEW: Dreamtime at the ‘G. It is an excellent concept that is growing every year. This time both teams are in good form and the match will take on greater importance on the field. The Bombers would be firm favourites for the win under normal circumstances, but there is a big question over their midfield without injured skipper Jobe Watson and tagger Heath Hocking. The midfield has already been depleted by injuries to running players earlier this season, so I give the Tigers a real chance of causing a big upset. The young cubs are a different proposition this year and are always a chance of an upset with a full forward like Jack Riewoldt and midfielders like Trent Cotchin and Dustin Martin. Essendon will probably too experienced in a tense final quarter, but boy will it be close. The other thing in their favour is the rucking situation. Richmond’s sole ruckman Angus Graham is out of action, and the Bombers three pronged ruck division will have a field day.

TIP: Essendon to win by 6 points

ANDY’S BET: Richmond +16.5 @ 1.93 (Readbet)

 

SUNDAY AFTERNOON

COLLINGWOOD v ADELAIDE – ETIHAD STADIUM (1.10pm AEST)

PREVIEW: I am very interested to see what kind of response we get from Collingwood after their first loss of the season last weekend. Will the defending champions get back to full force, or will the small weaknesses identified by Geelong be exposed as bigger deficiencies. I’m tipping the former. Adelaide are the visitors to Etihad Stadium and have an injury list as long as an A4 piece of paper. Talented forward Taylor Walker has been recalled to an extended bench for this Sunday match, and coach Neil Craig needs to select him on matchday if the Crows want to kick enough goals to challenge the Magpies. Collingwood hasn’t made many statements this year, cruising along playing, as coach Mick Malthouse calls it, ‘April-May football.’ It might be time to step it up a notch.

TIP: Collingwood to win by 60 points

ANDY’S BET: Collingwood to win by 49 points or more @ 2.00 (Readbet)

 

SYDNEY v HAWTHORN – SCG (2.10pm AEST)

PREVIEW: The Hawks have been decimated by injuries down back and will struggle against Sydney on the postage stamp sized SCG. The Swans have a tough midfield group and ruckman Shane Mumford will give them first hands on the footy. Hawthorn have had a couple of tough wins recently, this interstate trip could just stretch that bit too far.

TIP: Sydney to win by 10 points

ANDY’S BET: Sydney to win by 1-39 @ 2.59 (Centrebet)

 

WEST COAST v WESTERN BULLDOGS – PATERSONS STADIUM (4.40pm AEST)

PREVIEW: A really interesting game finishes the round. The Dogs are back in form after a resounding win last weekend, while the Eagles are playing some superb forward pressing football. West Coat might be a bit tired after using up a lot of energy to hassle and harry the Fremantle players last week. The Doggies will be boosted by the return of key men Tom Williams, Barry Hall and Shaun Higgins. Even though they lose Adam Cooney to niggling knee injury, I’m on the Bulldogs to pull off a surprise win in the west.

TIP: Western Bulldogs to win by 12 points

ANDY’S BET: Western Bulldogs to win @ 2.10 (Multiple Sites)