Tournament winner odds (bet365)
Roger Federer: 1.36
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga: 5.50
Tomas Berdych: 8.50
David Ferrer: 15.00
The Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London has reached the semi-finals stage. Group A winner Berdych will play Tsonga, while Group B winner Federer will play Ferrer. You can follow all of the action from the official website here.
Below are the final group standings, with each player’s win-loss record in brackets.
Group A:
1. Berdych (2-1)
2. Ferrer (2-1)
3. Djokovic (1-2)
4. Tipsarevic (1-1 – replaced Murray in the tournament)
5. Murray (0-1 – withdrawn from tournament)
Group B:
1. Federer (3-0)
2. Tsonga (2-1)
3. Nadal (1-2)
4. Fish (0-3)
In reaction to him playing Ferrer in the semi-finals, Federer’s odds of winning the tournament have shortened from 1.50 to 1.36. Despite his fantastic winning streak, those odds make it marginal whether it is worth backing him.
November 26th (local time) head to heads
Federer vs Ferrer
Ferrer is a surprise inclusion in the semi-finals after he defeated Djokovic and Murray. The Spaniard is in great form, but will be disappointed by his loss to Berdych yesterday, which has set up his semi-final against Federer. Federer is in sublime form, winning his two most recent tournaments before seeing off Tsonga, Nadal and Fish to remain the only undefeated player in the tournament. Federer enjoys a 12-0 record against Ferrer, but he will have to work hard to make it 13-0 tonight. In five of their twelve meetings Ferrer has taken a set off Federer.
I certainly back Federer to come out on top, but the 1.10 odds are painfully low. The odds of Federer winning two sets to one are 4.50, which is decent value.
Berdych vs Tsonga
This should be a great game. Tsonga has been in impressive form, with his only losses of late coming against Federer, while Berdych has done well to overcome the in-form Ferrer last night. Interestingly, the two have only played each other three times. The first was in 2004 while the second was a walkover after Berdych withdrew, so the only previous match that is of relevance is Berdych’s 6-4 4-6 6-1 win in Beijing this year.
I agree with the bookmakers for installing Tsonga as the favourite, although the 1.61 odds may be a touch low. The 2.10 odds for over 2.5 sets is appealing given the high number of three setters played this week.