Formula 1 – European Grand Prix Preview

Formula 1 returns to Spain for the European Grand Prix in Valencia. Hamilton became the seventh winner in seven races when he took the chequered flag in Canada. We couldn’t possibly have an eighth winner this weekend, could we?

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date. In the seven races thus far we’ve had seven different race winners and seven different second place finishers.

Driver and Constructor standings

The driver and constructor standings remain very open. Only nine points separate the top four drivers. In contrast, by this stage of the championship last year Vettel had accumulated 161 points – 60 more than second placed Button.

1 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) 88
2 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) 86
3 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) 85
4 Mark Webber (Red Bull) 79
5 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) 67
6 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus) 55
7 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) 53
8 Jenson Button (McLaren) 45
9 Sergio Perez (Sauber) 37
10 Pastor Maldonado (Williams) 29

In the constructor standings McLaren have closed the gap slightly on Red Bull. All but 11 of Ferrari’s points have been scored by Alonso, who continues to dominate his teammate Massa.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault 164
2 McLaren-Mercedes 133
3 Lotus-Renault 108
4 Ferrari 97
5 Mercedes 69
6 Sauber-Ferrari 58
7 Williams-Renault 44
8 Force India-Mercedes 28

Valencia Circuit History

The European Grand Prix was run as an honorary designation from 1923 to 1977 and as a standalone event from 1978 onwards. It has been hosted at various venues across Europe, most recently at Nürburgring from 1999 to 2007 and Valencia from 2008 onwards.

Valencia is a street circuit that utilizes the roads skirting around the city’s harbour and America’s Cup port. While Valencia is not as tight as Monaco, overtaking opportunities are minimal. This is in part due to the lack of straight line areas and dust off the racing line. The circuit has been criticised for this reason. Since 2008 there have only been four recorded overtakes, with none in 2009.

Below are the European Grand Prix results in Valencia. Hamilton has finished second three times in the circuit’s four year history. The pole winner has won three of the four races and has never finished worse than second.

Last Year

Vettel secured his seventh pole in eight races, with Webber second, Hamilton third and Alonso fourth.

On a hot race day Vettel led comfortably from pole. Hamilton slipped from third to fifth at the start. Alonso pressed Webber for second while Vettel built a solid lead. Alonso eventually overtook Webber in the DRS zone but Webber regained his position after the first round of pit stops. Alonso later took second place back during the second round of pits. The rather uneventful race finished with Vettel 1st, Alonso 2nd and Webber 3rd.

Impressions from the 2012 season thus far, plus other titbits

Ferrari driver Fernando Alonso says he has no regrets over the one stop strategy in Canada that saw him drop from first to fifth in the closing laps. Alonso led the race with 20 laps to go, but lost ground as his tyres wore out. “I’m proud of the team, I’m happy with the decision… We went for victory. We put a coin in the air and waited to see the result. It didn’t work but at least we tried.”

When asked about the Valencia circuit, Force India driver Paul di Resta has said “the track is very smooth but it’s tricky to get on top of the set-up and if you don’t find the sweet spot it can make quite a big difference to your lap time across such a long lap… There are some big braking zones too followed by big traction zones, so the degradation rate is quite high, which is why it’s hard to manage the rear tyres through the race.”

Lotus driver Kimi Räikkönen has said “Valencia is a street circuit, but the layout is not like Albert Park, Monaco or Montreal. It’s definitely the fastest track of these four. It’s likely to be hot and we seem to go well in warm conditions so that’s what we’ll be hoping for. Qualifying is going to be very, very important again here.”

The soft and medium compound tyres will be made available for this race.

Canadian Grand Prix Preview

Based on the historical results at Valencia it is clear that qualifying is extremely important at this circuit. Overtaking opportunities are few so the best way to improve track position is through pit stops. No pole winner has finished worse than second in this race.

Canadian Grand Prix Betting

Below are the latest race odds (subject to change):

I fancy Red Bull’s chances here. They’ve taken pole position in the last two races (Webber in Monaco, Vettel in Canada), and track position is extremely important in Valencia. If you fancy the chances of an eighth winner in eight races, then Grosjean and Räikkönen are the most competitive of those without a race win this season.

Due to the importance of qualifying you may want to hold off on race betting until the qualifying results are in. No driver outside the front row on the grid has won in Valencia, so the fastest two qualifiers are the most likely to take race victory. The only caveat is that this has been an unpredictable season, where tyre management has been of particular importance. If there’s ever a season that can break previous trends, it is this one.