Formula 1 – British Grand Prix Preview

The 2012 Formula 1 season is nearing the halfway mark as it heads to the British Grand Prix at Silverstone. This article provides a race preview and betting tips.

It took eight rounds but at long last we’ve had a driver win more than one race in 2012. Fernando Alonso was nothing short of brilliant in Valencia when he took race victory from 11th on the grid two weeks ago. The Ferrari driver was also victorious in Malaysia in round two. Alonso’s win in Valencia was all the more remarkable for the fact that no driver had previously won from outside the front row on the grid at the circuit.

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date. We have now had seven different race winners in eight races.

Driver and Constructor standings

Alonso’s win in Valencia has propelled him to the top of the table. Webber’s 4th place was enough to see him move up to 2nd. Button and Massa continue to be dominated by their teammates.

1 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) 111
2 Mark Webber (Red Bull) 91
3 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) 88
4 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) 85
5 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) 75
6 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus)73
7 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) 53
8 Jenson Button (McLaren) 49
9 Sergio Perez (Sauber) 39
10 Pastor Maldonado (Williams) 29
11 Paul di Resta (Force India) 27
12 Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber) 21
13 Michael Schumacher (Mercedes) 17
14 Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) 17
15 Bruno Senna (Williams) 16
16 Felipe Massa (Ferrari) 11

In the constructor standings Red Bull have extended their lead over McLaren while Ferrari have closed the gap on Lotus. All but 11 of Ferrari’s 122 points have been scored by Alonso.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault 176
2 McLaren-Mercedes 137
3 Lotus-Renault 126
4 Ferrari 122
5 Mercedes 92
6 Sauber-Ferrari 60
7 Williams-Renault 45
8 Force India-Mercedes 44
9 STR-Ferrari 6

Silverstone Circuit History

The Silverstone Circuit was built on the site of a World War II air force base in 1947. The original circuit used the runways and service roads of the original airfield. Silverstone first hosted the British Grand Prix in 1948 and has been part of the Formula One World Championship on and off since 1950. It has been on the F1 calendar every year since 1987.

The circuit has undergone numerous reconfigurations, with the most recent change made in 2010 to the new “Arena” layout. The Arena loop was added, with drivers bypassing the old Abbey, Bridge and Priory corners before re-joining at Brooklands. This layout added 759 metres over the previous design, making Silverstone one of the longest circuits on the Formula 1 calendar. In 2011 – and with a new 17-year deal in place – Silverstone unveiled a new pits and paddock complex that is made up of hospitality suites, media centre, a new spectator area, garages, race control building and podium.

Recent history suggests you need to be in the front two rows on the grid to win. In the last eleven years the race winner had qualified in the following positions:

1st on the grid – 3 times
2nd on the grid – 3 times
3rd on the grid – 2 times
4th on the grid – 3 times

Below are the most recent Silverstone results.

Last Year

In a rain-affected qualifying session Webber qualified on pole, 0.032 seconds ahead of Vettel with Alonso third.

On race day every driver started on intermediate tyres, with parts of the circuit fully wet and other sections virtually dry. In the first lap Vettel beat Webber to the first corner to take the race lead. The drivers nursed their cars around the varied track conditions, with everyone reluctant to pit too early for dry tyres. Vettel built a comfortable lead over Webber and led the race until a pit lane error by the Red Bull mechanics, which resulted in him conceding the race lead to Alonso. Vettel emerged in third position and was held up by Hamilton while Alonso built a race lead. Vettel eventually pitted a third time to run in clear air. With less than ten laps to go Hamilton was ordered to conserve fuel. He slowed to an extent that enabled Vettel and Webber to pass. In the final two laps Webber was close enough to challenge Vettel and despite team orders he attempted to overtake his teammate. Webber was unsuccessful, and the race finished with Alonso first, Vettel second and Webber third.

Impressions from the 2012 season thus far, plus other titbits

Toro Rosso driver Jean-Eric Vergne has been hit with a 10-place gird penalty for the British Grand Prix. He was also hit with a €25,000 fine for causing an avoidable accident during the European Grand Prix two weeks ago.

Sauber driver Kamui Kobayashi has received a five-place grid penalty for his collision with Felipe Massa in Valencia.

Paul Hembery, Pirelli motorsport director, has said “Silverstone is a very high-energy circuit that can see some unpredictable weather conditions, so a strong performance from the tyres and an effective strategy are vital ingredients in a successful race outcome.”

Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen has said “It’s always windy at Silverstone and often it rains, too. The track conditions change very quickly, which makes the car more tricky to set up. It’s part of the fun racing in England; at least it’s the same for everybody.”

Martin Whitmarsh, McLaren team principal, has said “The races so far this season have been very difficult to read, and while that may be frustrating for some, it also creates opportunities. It has also made for some incredibly exciting races and challenged many preconceptions – as we saw last time out at Valencia, a circuit at which established wisdom tells you there are very few opportunities to overtake… The team that best manages the performance delta of the tyres is the one best placed to win, and to do that you have to take every opportunity to gather data and learn from it quickly and effectively. Today, Grands Prix are no longer sprint races that are won or lost on the first lap.”

Norbert Haug, Vice-President of Mercedes-Benz Motorsport, has said “Silverstone is one of the most challenging circuits of the year, with average qualifying lap speeds of over 220 km/h and seven of the 18 corners taken at over 250 km/h. It is a complete test of both car and driver.”

HRT driver Pedro de la Rosa, has said “Silverstone is a beautiful and classic circuit; it’s a quick, high-downforce track with a lot of quick corners linked together. It’s very demanding on the tyres, so the logical thing is to go for three stops.”

British Grand Prix Preview

Based on previous race history the drivers will be aiming for a top four spot in qualifying. Interestingly, the driver’s position within the top four has had little impact on his odds of winning the race. In the last fifteen years there have been four winners from pole position, four winners from second on the grid, three winners from third on the grid, and four winners from fourth on the grid. The last time a driver won from outside the first two rows on the grid was in 1995 when Johnny Herbert won from fifth after the two race leaders (Hill and Schumacher) collided.

Drivers have a good opportunity to make up places into the first corner so you can expect a frenetic first lap. Last year Hamilton made up four positions on the first lap from tenth on the grid.

The forecast is for rain throughout the weekend, which can significantly impact both qualifying and racing. Tyre management will be key because it’s not uncommon for some parts of the track to bet wet while other parts remain dry. The weather will bound to add more uncertainty to an already unpredictable season.

British Grand Prix Betting

Vettel’s back-to-back pole positions in Canada and Valencia see him start the weekend as the 2.50 favourite to take pole. Red Bull have been on pole at Silverstone (Vettel twice, Webber once) for the past three years so you have to fancy Vettel’s chances. Once again, 2012 has been an unpredictable year, so you should view the practice session results before wagering on qualifying.

Recent history suggests that the race winner will come from the front two rows of the grid, although interestingly the driver’s position within the top four hasn’t impacted his chances of winning. For this reason you may get good value on the second row qualifiers. Without knowing anything else about the race, based on historical results the fair odds for the pole position driver to win the race are about 3.67.

If Vettel is on pole then he’d be a solid bet to win given his prowess at leading from the front. He was unlucky not to win from pole in Valencia, having to retire with a mechanical issue. Up to that point he had completely dominated the field.

Alonso showed in Valencia that you can never rule him out. He complained about lack of pace all weekend in that event but managed to take race victory from 11th on the grid. Ferrari have been consistently more competitive in racing than in qualifying. This is reflected in Alonso’s 9.75 odds to qualify on pole compared to 5.75 odds to take race victory.

Due to the forecasted rain I recommend refraining from race betting until the qualifying results are in.