Formula 1 – Belgian Grand Prix – Preview and Tips

After the August summer break the Formula 1 season resumes this weekend with the Belgian Grand Prix at Spa-Francorchamps. This article previews the Grand Prix and discusses the betting odds.

With 11 races down and 9 to go, teams’ fortunes have ebbed and flowed this season, with McLaren coming back into form prior to the mid-season break. Alonso continues to dominate his teammate Massa while Lotus are still looking for their first victory.

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date.

Driver and Constructor standings

Hamilton’s win in Hungary sees him move up to 4th. Alonso has extended his lead over Webber after the Australian could only manage 8th at the Hungaroring.

1 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) – 164
2 Mark Webber (Red Bull) – 124
3 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) – 122
4 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) – 117
5 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus) – 116
6 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) – 77
7 Jenson Button (McLaren) – 76
8 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) – 76
9 Sergio Perez (Sauber) – 47
10 Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber) – 33
11 Pastor Maldonado (Williams) – 29
12 Michael Schumacher (Mercedes) – 29
13 Paul di Resta (Force India) – 27
14 Felipe Massa (Ferrari) – 25
15 Bruno Senna (Williams) – 24
16 Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) – 19

In the constructor standings Ferrari have dropped from 2nd to 4th after McLaren’s and Lotus’ strong showings in Hungary.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault – 246
2 McLaren-Mercedes – 193
3 Lotus-Renault – 192
4 Ferrari – 189
5 Mercedes – 106
6 Sauber-Ferrari – 80
7 Williams-Renault – 53
8 Force India-Mercedes – 46
9 STR-Ferrari – 6
10 Caterham-Renault – 0
11 Marussia-Cosworth – 0
12 HRT-Cosworth – 0

Spa-Francorchamps

The Circuit de Spa-Francorchamps was built in 1921 but only hosted motorcycle racing until 1924. Due to the circuit not meeting required safety specifications the Belgian Grand Prix was moved in 1972 to be rotated between Circuit Zolder and a circuit at Nivelles-Baulers. In 1979 Spa-Francorchamps was modified and shortened from 14 km to 7 km. In 1985 the Belgian Grand Prix returned to Spa-Francorchamps where it has remained ever since.

Spa-Francorchamps has a reputation for its unpredictable weather. At one stage in its history it had rained at the Belgian Grand Prix for twenty years in a row. Drivers are often confronted with one part of the course being clear and bright while another stretch is rainy and slippery.

Spa-Francorchamps arguably emphasises driver skill more than any other circuit on the F1 calendar. This is largely due to the Eau Rouge and Blanchimont corners, both which need to be taken flat out to achieve a fast run onto the straights after them, which aids a driver in both a fast lap time and with overtaking.

Below are the most recent results in Belgium.

Last Year

In a wet qualifying period Vettel secured pole position, ahead of Hamilton and Webber. In changing conditions Button only managed to qualify 13th.

On race day Rosberg had a fantastic start to take the race lead from 5th on the grid. Button suffered early wing damage caused by debris from another incident. He pitted early and changed from primes to soft tyres. On the faster compound he started to make his way through the pack. Once DRS was activated on lap 3 Rosberg began to slip back down the field.

Drivers opted for early pit stops, coming in around lap 5. On lap 13 the safety car was deployed due to Hamilton crashing out after making contact with Kobayashi. This prompted the leaders to make a second round of pit stops. After the safety car came in Vettel went about building his lead over Alonso and Webber. Button continued to make his way through the field and led the race briefly before having to pit again. He emerged in 4th, behind Alonso, but managed to overtake Alonso for 3rd after Alonso had lost 2nd position to Webber.

Vettel went on to win the race, with Webber 2nd and Button 3rd.

2012 News and Titbits

Following the mandatory factory shutdowns, teams have had two weeks to prepare ahead of the Belgian Grand Prix.

McLaren Driver Lewis Hamilton has said “Given the unpredictability of the sport, I think it’s still difficult to predict accurately who’ll win the next grand prix, but I reckon the coming few weeks ought to give us a much clearer idea of the destination of the world title.”

McLaren team boss Martin Whitmarsh says Lewis Hamilton wants to sign a new contract with the team. “Lewis and I have spoken two or three times at length. I think we are closer than we have ever been.”

It seems likely that Ferrari will drop Massa for 2013. Ferrari are aiming to finalise their driver line-up by the end of September. The favourites to partner Alonso are di Resta (Force India), Hulkenberg (Force India) or Sauber’s Perez (Sauber). Ferrari are interested in Button, but a possible deal is complicated by the fact that he is under contract with McLaren to the end of 2013.

Belgian Grand Prix Preview

Pirelli motorsport director Paul Hembery has said “From a tyre perspective, it’s certainly one of the most demanding circuits that we face all year, because of the high speeds and extreme forces involved, which are often acting on the tyres in more than one dimension. The nomination of the hard and the medium tyres will allow drivers to push hard from start to finish.”

Lotus driver Kimi Raikkonen has said “As we’ve seen so many times this year, a good grid position is extremely important and it could be decisive at Spa too. Recent history supports this. In the last 10 races 8 winners had qualified on the front row of the grid. The pole winner and second fastest qualifier have won four races apiece.

Lotus are confident they will be competitive if conditions are dry at Spa. Raikkonen is a four-time winner in Belgium, while Romain Grosjean feels the circuit suits the E20 very well. With the pace they had in Hungary, Lotus feel they could have won in Budapest had overtaking been easier, and Spa is a good circuit for overtaking. James Allison, Lotus technical director, has said “If it’s a dry weekend Spa fits the category of circuit at which we are most confident, so all of us are excited to be going there… We would prefer a dry weekend, but we should be competitive whatever the weather.” Lotus, like many teams, are introducing a number of new upgrades in Belgium.

Belgian Grand Prix Betting

Below are the latest odds, subject to change. Keep a close eye on the weather forecasts because we often get rain at Spa-Francorchamps over the course of the weekend. At the time of writing rain is forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday, so the trend looks likely to continue.

Given Hamtilton’s win from pole position in Hungary, it’s of no surprise to see him as the odds on favourite for pole and the race. Alonso has qualified on pole in two of the last three races so at 7.75 odds he’s certainly one to keep an eye on.

In the last ten races 80% of the race winners had qualified on the front row of the grid so if conditions are dry on Sunday then the top two qualifiers will be worth a look for the race win. The pole winner has finished on the podium in each of the last five races, so a ‘Top 3’ wager is also worth considering if conditions are dry.

Teams will be introducing more upgrades in Belgium, so this should be another unpredictable race. I wouldn’t touch race betting until I’ve seen the qualifying results and Sunday weather forecast. I won’t touch the qualifying betting until I’ve seen the practice session times and know what the weather will be doing on Saturday. For this reason there isn’t too much else I can add at this stage. Between the excellent circuit design, unpredictable season and weather uncertainty, the Belgium Grand Prix should be an excellent spectacle this year. If you’re a selective F1 viewer, the Belgium Grand Prix is definitely a race to add to your viewing calendar.

Be sure to check out our new Formula 1 odds comparison tool. Championship and race odds are compared across Australia’s leading bookmakers.