Formula 1 – Italian Grand Prix – Preview and Tips

Hot on the heels of the eventful Belgian Grand Prix is the Italian Grand Prix at Monza. This is the last race in Europe before Formula 1 heads back to Asia. This article previews the Italian Grand Prix and discusses the betting odds.

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date.

Driver and Constructor standings

Button’s win in Belgium moves him up to 6th and within striking distance of his teammate Hamilton. More importantly, it keeps him in the title hunt. Vettel’s 2nd place finish at Spa sees him leapfrog Webber into 2nd. With eight races to go there are six drivers in genuine contention for the title.

1 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) – 164
2 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) – 140
3 Mark Webber (Red Bull) – 132
4 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus) – 131
5 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) – 117
6 Jenson Button (McLaren) – 101
7 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) – 77
8 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) – 76
9 Sergio Perez (Sauber) – 47
10 Michael Schumacher (Mercedes) – 35
11 Felipe Massa (Ferrari) – 35
12 Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber) – 33
13 Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) – 31
14 Pastor Maldonado (Williams) – 29
15 Paul di Resta (Force India) – 28
16 Bruno Senna (Williams) – 24

In the constructor standings Force India have moved above Williams into 7th, with no order changes elsewhere. Red Bull could only extend their lead over McLaren by one point despite being the only top-four team to avoid losing a driver in the opening lap pile-up at Spa.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault – 272
2 McLaren-Mercedes – 218
3 Lotus-Renault – 207
4 Ferrari – 199
5 Mercedes – 112
6 Sauber-Ferrari – 80
7 Force India-Mercedes – 59
8 Williams-Renault – 53
9 STR-Ferrari – 12
10 Caterham-Renault – 0
11 Marussia-Cosworth – 0
12 HRT-Cosworth – 0

Monza

The Italian Grand Prix is one of the longest running events on the racing calendar, having hosted Grand Prix motor racing since 1921. A number of circuits have been used for the Italian Grand Prix, with Monza dominating the hosting. Since 1961 the Monza Road Circuit has hosted the Italian Grand Prix in every year but one, when the event was held at Imola in 1980.

The Autodromo Nazionale Monza is located near the town of Monza in northern Italy. Due to its long straights and fast corners, drivers are at full throttle for nearly 80% of the lap. Car set ups are focused on maximising performance in the straights as there are only three proper corners on the circuit. This is achieved by using the minimal wing angle, to ensure the lowest level of drag on the straights.

In recent years the Italian Grand Prix has been labelled as a jinx to the winning driver. From 2004-2010 no driver was able to win the Italian Grand Prix and the championship in the same year. In the last twenty years only three drivers have won the Italian Grand Prix and the driver’s championship in the same season.

When asked about the circuit, McLaren driver Lewis Hamilton said “For me, there’s something about Formula One’s older circuits that’s very special; despite each being very different, the newer tracks all seem to have the same character and the same sort of rhythm, but the older circuits are very different. They feel like the land has shaped and influenced them rather than the other way around. I like that – it means you never fall into any particular comfort zone and you’re always pushing the car one way or the other to get the best from any lap. The first laps out of the pits on Friday always feels incredible because we have such little downforce and the ratios are so long. It feels like you never stop accelerating – and then you hit the brakes and the car feels really unstable, because the wings aren’t doing much to keep it settled.”

Below are the most recent results in Italy.

Last Year

Vettel qualified on pole, with Hamilton 2nd, Button 3rd and Alonso 4th.

On the opening lap Alonso jumped from 4th to 1st going into the first corner. The safety car was quickly deployed after an incident further down the field. Soon after the safety car came in Vettel retook the lead from Alonso. Hamilton was caught out by the restart and was overtaken by Schumacher. While Hamilton and Schumacher fought over 3rd place Button was able to overtake the pair of them in quick succession. Vettel went on to win the race comfortably. Button overtook Alonso with ten laps to go to finish 2nd, while Hamilton overtook Schumacher during the pit stops to finish 4th.

2012 News and Titbits

There has been speculation over how much trouble Hamilton has been in with McLaren after posting confidential team information on Twitter. McLaren technical boss Paddy Lowe has played down the incident but his engineers must be furious with Hamilton.

Lotus driver Romain Grosjean has been fined 50,000 euros and given a one-race ban for causing the first corner pile-up at the Belgian Grand Prix. He will not participate this weekend. Belgian driver Jerome D’Ambrosio will race for Lotus in Grosjean’s place.

Williams driver Pastor Maldonado has been given two separate five-place grid penalties as punishment jumping the start and causing an avoidable collision with Glock at the Belgian Grand Prix. Both penalties will apply at Monza for a combined ten-place grid penalty. Maldonado has received more sanctions than any other driver this season.

McLaren driver Jenson Button will be hoping to break his streak of second place finishes at Monza. Button has finished 2nd in the last three Italian Grands Prix. McLaren have found some form again after looking off the pace in earlier races. After a stretch of only winning one in eleven races, McLaren have now won the last two.

Italian Grand Prix Preview

Monza is a high-speed circuit that will suit the teams with high top end speeds. The Mercedes powered cars (McLaren, Mercedes, Force India) should fare well while Red Bull may struggle after displaying poor top speeds at Spa last week. The cars were set up with relatively low downforce configurations in Belgium so those who were competitive last week should be optimistic about this weekend. Hamilton was off the pace compared to Button in qualifying in Spa but he was using an older rear wing.

Pirelli motorsport director Paul Hembery has said “Ambient temperatures can be very high in Italy, which places further demands on the tyres, so we would normally expect two pit stops.” Teams will be given hard and medium compound tyres – the same as in Belgium.

History suggests that the race winner will be determined on Saturday, with the pole winner going on to win nine of the last twelve races. In the three races in which the pole winner didn’t claim the race victory, two failed to complete the race (Hamilton in 2009 and Montoya in 2002) while one finished 2nd (Räikkönen in 2006).

Italian Grand Prix Betting

Below are the latest betting odds (subject to change). Click here to view the latest odds across a range of bookmakers.

Looking at the recent history in Monza, no driver has won from further back than 5th on the grid. Seeing that Maldonado will receive a ten place grid penalty, the 81.00 odds on him to win the race are poor value. At the time of writing the Betfair back odds on Maldonado with are 200.00, which is closer to where they should be.

Hamilton is the rightful favourite for pole. McLaren drivers have been on pole in the last two races and Hamilton was using an older rear wing than Button at Spa – something he was at pains to point out on Twitter! Red Bull don’t have high top speeds so I’m not convinced the 5.00 odds on Vettel and 10.50 odds on Webber represent good value.

Given the history of pole winners taking race victory, I won’t touch the race betting until the qualifying results are in. Based on previous history the fair odds for the pole winner to win the race are 1.33, so anything higher than that is worth considering. In the last three races this season the pole winner has gone on to win the race on Sunday.