2012 Brownlow Medal Preview

The Brownlow Medal is one of the rare sporting markets that you can bet on after a sporting event has happened, making it a unique chance to do some extra research to try and get one over the bookies!

The bookies took a pounding in 2010, mostly from multibets placed on the most votes per team markets. Last year they were more cautious, not offering multies until just before the count, and at significantly reduced odds to the previous year.

This article will include my own my phantom count, preview the big overall chances, include a club-by-club breakdown and finish with an overview for betting strategies and insights for who to consider in your team multies.

 

Andy’s 2012 Phantom Brownlow Medal Count

My phantom count is not as scientific as some others you may find on the web, but I have gone through each individual game and assigned the 3-2-1’s. I have only tallied the votes at the end of R23, so I had no prejudice in deciding votes at the end of the season based on which players were at the top of the count.

My method for assigning votes for each match is based on a combination of my own thoughts from matches I’ve watched, reading match reports of matches I haven’t watched and, obviously, looking at all the statistics from each game.

FINAL LEADERBOARD

1st – Jobe Watson (32 Votes)

2nd equal – Gary Ablett (26 Votes)

2nd equal – Dane Swan (26 Votes)

4th equal – Scott Thompson (25 Votes)

4th equal – Patrick Dangerfield (25 Votes)

6th equal – Dayne Beams (22 Votes)

6th equal – Brett Deledio (22 Votes)

8th – Joel Selwood (21 Votes)

9th – Matthew Pavlich (20 Votes)

10th – Trent Cotchin (19 Votes)

 

To give you a chance to compare against your own counts, or to further analyse what I’ve done, here are the vote breakdown’s for each of the top 10.

 

Jobe Watson

3’s – R2, R10, R11, R14, R16

2’s – R3, R6, R7, R8, R13, R19, R20

1’s – R1, R4, R9

 

Gary Ablett

3’s – R3, R12, R16, R17, R18, R21

2’s – R1, R10

1’s – R2, R15, R20, R23

 

Dane Swan

3’s – R5, R7, R11, R14, R18

2’s – R4, R13, R17, R19, R23

1’s – R16

 

Scott Thompson

3’s – R1, R2, R6, R7, R12, R14

2’s – R16, R23

1’s – R5, R15, R21

 

P Dangerfield

3’s – R5, R8, R17, R18, R19, R23

2’s – R10, R20, R21

1’s – R22

 

Dayne Beams

3’s – R9, R13, R16, R20

2’s – R11, R18

1’s – R5, R6, R7, R10, R17, R21

 

Brett Deledio

3’s – R12, R19, R22

2’s – R2, R6, R9, R10, R15

1’s – R3, R14, R16

 

Joel Selwood

3’s – R4, R11, R14, R23

2’s – R8, R13, R15

1’s – R7, R18, R19

 

Matthew Pavlich

3’s – R7, R11, R15, R17, R19

2’s – R6

1’s – R13, R14, R16

 

Trent Cotchin

3’s – R5, R20, R23

2’s – R16, R18

1’s – R1, R8, R9, R15, R21, R22

 

CLUB LEADERBOARDS

Adelaide:

25 – S Thompson

25 – P Dangerfield

10 – R Sloane

7 – K Tippett

5 – T Walker

5 – B Vince

4 – S Jacobs

3 – M Wright

2 – J Porplyzia

2 – N van Berlo

2 – R Henderson

 

Brisbane:

12 – T Rockliff

11 – J Redden

6 – S Black

6 – P Hanley

5 – J Brown

3 – D Zorko

3 – D Merrett

3 – D Rich

3 – J Drummond

1 – J Adcock

1 – A McGrath

 

Carlton:

16 – M Murphy

13 – C Judd

9 – K Simpson

9 – B McLean

6 – H Scotland

5 – B Gibbs

5 – M Robinson

4 – J Waite

3 – A Carrazzo

2 – C Yarran

1 – D Ellard

1 – P Bower

1 – J Garlett

 

Collingwood:

26 – D Swan

22 – D Beams

18 – S Pendlebury

7 – S Sidebottom

6 – T Cloke

4 – D Thomas

3 – D Jolly

2 – J Blair

1 – A Fasolo

1 – N Maxwell

 

Essendon:

32 – J Watson

17 – B Stanton

5 – M Hurley

4 – D Zaharakis

2 – T Bellchambers

2 – P Ryder

2 – B Howlett

2 – S Crameri

1 – D Fletcher

1 – H Hocking

1 – D Heppell

1 – C Dempsey

 

Fremantle:

20 – M Pavlich

12 – C Pearce

11 – A Sandilands

11 – D Mundy

6 – N Fyfe

3 – L McPharlin

2 – P Duffield

2 – C Mayne

2 – T Mzungu

2 – M de Boer

2 – H Ballantyne

1 – M Barlow

1 – G Ibbotson

 

Gold Coast:

26 – G Ablett

6 – H Bennell

3 – T Lynch

3 – D Stanley

 

Geelong:

21 – J Selwood

14 – T Hawkins

12 – P Chapman

11 – S Johnson

6 – J Bartel

4 – M Duncan

4 – J Kelly

3 – C Enright

3 – H Taylor

1 – A Christensen

1 – A Mackie

 

Greater Western Sydney:

7 – J Giles

5 – T Greene

3 – A Treloar

3 – C Ward

2 – C Cornes

1 – S Coniglio

1 – J Cameron

 

Hawthorn:

17 – S Mitchell

17 – L Franklin

8 – C Rioli

7 – B Sewell

6 – G Birchall

6 – J Lewis

5 – S Burgoyne

5 – J Gibson

4 – B Whitecross

4 – M Suckling

3 – C Young

3 – J Roughead

2 – D Hale

2 – L Shiels

2 – L Hodge

1 – L Bruest

1 – P Puopolo

 

Melbourne:

7 – N Jones

3 – J Howe

2 – M Bate

2 – S Martin

2 – J Grimes

2 – C Sylvia

1 – B Green

1 – C Garland

1 – M Clark

1 – J Rivers

 

North Melbourne:

14 – B Harvey

9 – A Swallow

8 – R Bastinac

8 – D Petrie

6 – D Wells

5 – S Gibson

5 – L Adams

3 – H McIntosh

3 – D Cox

3 – T Goldstein

3 – S Thompson

3 – B Cunnington

3 – J Ziebell

2 – L Anthony

 

Port Adelaide:

6 – Brad Ebert

5 – K Cornes

4 – H Hartlett

4 – D Pearce

4 – J Schulz

3 – P Stewart

3 – T Boak

2 – M Broadbent

1 – Brett Ebert

1 – J McCarthy

1 – D Cassisi

1 – J Westhoff

 

Richmond:

22 – B Deledio

19 – T Cotching

13 – S Tuck

11 – I Maric

8 – S Grigg

5 – J Riewoldt

2 – A Rance

2 – D Martin

1 – R Conca

1 – S Edwards

1 – N Foley

 

St Kilda:

14 – L Hayes

11 – N Dal Santo

10 – N Riewoldt

9 – L Montagna

9 – B Goddard

3 – B Wilkes

3 – F Ray

2 – J Gram

2 – S Milne

2 – D Armitage

2 – J Blake

1 – S Dempster

1 – J Steven

 

Sydney:

18 – J Kennedy

16 – K Jack

15 – R O’Keefe

11 – J McVeigh

11 – D Hannebery

7 – A Goodes

4 – L Jetta

4 – J Bolton

3 – L Parker

2 – S Reid

1 – C Bird

 

Western Bulldogs:

18 – M Boyd

13 – R Griffen

4 – B Lake

3 – A Cooney

2 – R Murphy

2 – L Dahlhaus

1 – D Giansiracusa

1 – R Hargrave

 

West Coast:

14 – S  Selwood

12 – D Cox

10 – L Shuey

10 – N Naitanui

7 – M Priddis

6 – D Kerr

6 – C Masten

3 – M Rosa

3 – S Hurn

3 – A Gaff

3 – J Kennedy

2 – J Darling

2 – B Waters

1 – J Hill

 

BETTING OPTIONS

The following are my betting plays for this year’s count.

OVERALL

2 units on Jobe Watson to win @ 6.00 (Multiple Sites)

3 units on Jobe Watson to place (top 3) @ 2.25 (TAB Sportsbet)

2 units on Gary Ablett to place (top 3) @ 2.00 (Betstar)

1 unit on Dane Swan to place (top 3) @ 4.00 (TAB Sportsbet)

2 units on Dane Swan to place (top 5) @ 2.35 (Betstar)

 

SPECIALIST MARKETS

2 units on Jason Blake to poll at least 1 vote @ 2.12 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Brent Stanton H2H with Matt Priddis @ 1.78 (Sportsbet)

2 units on Ryan Griffen H2H with Stephen Hill @ 1.47 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Dane Swan H2H with Scott Thompson @ 2.35 (Betstar)

1 unit on Paul Chapman H2H with Harley Bennell @ 1.85 (Betstar)

1 unit on Jack Redden H2H with Simon Black @ 1.75 (Betstar)

1 unit on Jobe Watson H2H with Patrick Dangerfield @ 1.62 (Betstar)

2 units on Jobe Watson H2H with Trent Cotchin @ 1.90 (Centrebet)

1 unit on Brent Stanton to win Group 2 @ 3.75 (Centrebet)

 

TEAM MARKETS

1 unit on Jonathan Giles to win GWS most votes @ 3.60 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Scott Selwood to win West Coast most votes @ 2.75 (TAB Sportsbet)

1 unit on Brent Harvey to win North Melbourne most votes @ 2.15 (Sportsbet)

1 unit on Brad Ebert to win Port Adelaide most votes @ 3.50 (Centrebet, Sportsbet)

 

MULTIES

At the time of writing, Betstar is the only bookie offering multies. Sportsbet is rumoured to be offering multies from September 17, while TAB Sportsbet will probably opening up their multi markets on the day of the count.

My method for doing multies will revolve around picking 4 or 5 players I am very confident of winning their team counts and adding in 4 or 5 players at better than $2 odds. I will then take all possible combinations of those players between 4 and 8. That makes 163 possible combinations (e.g. 8 choose 4 + 8 choose 5 + 8 choose 6 + 8 choose 7 + 8 choose 8).

The players I’ll be taking are (in order of confidence) M Boyd, D Swan, B Harvey, T Rockliff, J Giles, S Selwood, B Ebert, B Deledio.

Good luck!