Formula 1 – Japanese Grand Prix – Preview and Tips

Formula 1 heads from Singapore to Japan for the Japanese Grand Prix at the Suzuka Circuit. This article previews the race and discusses the betting odds. With the race starting at 5:00 PM AEDT as opposed to the usual 10:00 PM, Channel 10 will be airing the race delayed later in the evening. For most states the race will be aired live on One HD.

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date.

Driver and Constructor standings

Hamilton’s costly gearbox failure in Singapore sees him slip from 2nd to 4th on the table. Alonso maintains his lead although Vettel looms large in 2nd.

1 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) – 194
2 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) – 165
3 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus) – 149
4 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) – 142
5 Mark Webber (Red Bull) – 132
6 Jenson Button (McLaren) – 119
7 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) – 93
8 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) – 82
9 Sergio Perez (Sauber) – 66
10 Felipe Massa (Ferrari) – 51
11 Paul di Resta (Force India) – 44
12 Michael Schumacher (Mercedes) – 43
13 Kamui Kobayashi (Sauber) – 35
14 Nico Hulkenberg (Force India) – 31
15 Pastor Maldonado (Williams) – 29
16 Bruno Senna (Williams-Renault) – 25

In constructor’s championship there are no place changes although Red Bull have extended their lead over McLaren.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault – 297
2 McLaren-Mercedes – 261
3 Ferrari – 245
4 Lotus-Renault – 231
5 Mercedes – 136
6 Sauber-Ferrari – 101
7 Force India-Mercedes – 75
8 Williams-Renault – 54
9 STR-Ferrari – 14
10 Marussia-Cosworth – 0
11 Caterham-Renault – 0
12 HRT-Cosworth – 0

Suzuka Circuit

Built in 1962, Suzuka is one of few circuits in the world to have a figure 8 layout, with the back straight passing over the front section through an overpass.

The first Formula 1 Japanese Grand Prix was held at the Fuji Speedway in 1976. After two seasons Japan was removed from the Formula 1 calendar before being reintroduced at the Suzuka Circuit in 1987. Suzuka has hosted Formula 1 racing every year since, with the exceptions of 2007 and 2008, when the Grand Prix was held at the Fuji Speedway. Starting in 2007 the Japanese Grand Prix was planned to alternate between Suzuka and Fuji, however the global economic downturn caused the Fuji Speedway to pull out of Formula 1 hosting.

Half the Suzuka track is made up of straights but there are plenty of corners so teams need to find the right balance between straight line speed and having sufficient downforce for the high-speed corners. The circuit is known for punishing mistakes in terms of lap times. When describing the circuit, Nico Hulkenberg has said “because it’s so technical it’s important to find a good rhythm because if you mess up one corner you can lose the flow of the whole lap.”

Below are the most recent results at Suzuka.

2012 News and Titbits

Michael Schumacher has been given a 10-place grid penalty for the Japanese Grand Prix after crashing into the back of Jean-Eric Vergne in Singapore.

After much speculation, Lewis Hamilton will leave McLaren to drive for Mercedes in 2013. He will partner Nico Rosberg, taking Michael Schumacher’s spot. Hamilton and Rosberg have been teammates previously in Formula A karting. At this stage is unknown whether Schumacher will retire or drive for another team next season. Sauber driver Sergio Perez will replace Hamilton at McLaren. The up-and-coming Mexican had previously been considered a potential replacement for Massa at Ferrari. He is currently in his second season in Formula 1. Sauber have yet to determine a replacement for Perez.

Japanese Grand Prix Preview

Suzuka is one of the toughest circuits on tyres, primarily due to the numerous long, high speed corners. Pirelli have brought the hard and soft compounds to Japan. The full step between the two available compounds will make tyre selection even more important. The full step will make qualifying session 1 in particular intriguing because the top teams may be forced to use a set of softs in Q1 to guarantee progression to Q2. On race day Pirelli are hoping that their tyre offerings will “open up the opportunity for lots of different strategies.”

Vettel has secured pole position in the three previous Japanese Grands Prix, although he has failed to win pole in the last six races in 2012. Hamilton on the other hand doesn’t have a great record in Japan but has been in pole in three of the last four races this season.

In the last ten races at Suzuka the pole winner has won seven races. The three exceptions were Button’s win from 2nd on the grid in 2011, Alonso’s win from 5th on the grid in 2006 and Raikkonen’s remarkable win from 17th on the grid in 2005. Both qualifying and race day were affected by heavy rain that year, and with sunshine forecast for Sunday, it is highly unlikely we will see a driver take the chequered flag from outside the first three rows of the grid this weekend.

Japanese Grand Prix Betting

Below are the latest betting odds (subject to change). Click here to compare live Formula 1 odds across a range of bookmakers.

McLaren have dominated qualifying in recent races, winning pole in the last four races. Hamilton has been on pole in three of the last four races so you would have to be bold to bet against him. The only question mark is the fact that he has never secured pole at Suzuka before. Hamilton’s pole odds opened at 2.10 but have drifted to 2.20 at the time of writing.

Only a mechanical failure could have prevented Hamilton from winning in Singapore two weeks ago, and it was a gearbox failure that was his undoing. No doubt that mechanical issue would have firmed his decision to leave McLaren in 2013. Interestingly, while his pole odds have drifted his race win odds have shortened from 3.10 at open to 3.00 at the time of writing. To take odds as short as those I would wait to see if he secures pole position first.

Given that seven of the last ten winners have won from pole, it is advisable to wait for the qualifying results prior to wagering on race day. In the last five races this season the winning driver has won from pole position. The only exception was Hamilton who had to retire from the front of the race with a gearbox failure in Singapore two weeks ago.