Formula 1 – Brazilian Grand Prix – Preview and Tips

The 2012 Formula 1 season concludes this weekend with the Brazilian Grand Prix. Unfortunately for Australian racing fans, the race starts at 3 AM AEDT on Monday. Red Bull have wrapped up the Constructors’ Championship but the Drivers’ Championship remains in the balance, with Vettel holding a 13 point lead over Alonso.

This article previews the Brazilian Grand Prix and looks at the race and Drivers’ Championship odds.

2012 Season Results

Below are the 2012 season results to date.

Driver and Constructor standings

Vettel’s 2nd place finish in Austin extended his lead over Alonso to 13 points. With 25 points going to the race winner, the title still remains in the balance.

1 Sebastian Vettel (Red Bull) – 273
2 Fernando Alonso (Ferrari) – 260
3 Kimi Räikkönen (Lotus) – 206
4 Lewis Hamilton (McLaren) – 190
5 Mark Webber (Red Bull) – 167
6 Jenson Button (McLaren) – 163
7 Felipe Massa (Ferrari) – 107
8 Romain Grosjean (Lotus) – 96
9 Nico Rosberg (Mercedes) – 93
10 Sergio Perez (Sauber-Ferrari) – 66

Red Bull have wrapped up the Constructors’ Championship with Ferrari and McLaren still fighting for second.

1 Red Bull Racing-Renault – 440
2 Ferrari – 367
3 McLaren-Mercedes – 353
4 Lotus-Renault – 302
5 Mercedes – 136
6 Sauber-Ferrari – 124
7 Force India-Mercedes – 99
8 Williams-Renault – 76
9 STR-Ferrari – 22
10 Marussia-Cosworth – 0
11 Caterham-Renault – 0
12 HRT-Cosworth – 0

Autódromo José Carlos Pace Circuit

The Autódromo José Carlos Pace, formerly known as Interlagos, is located in the Interlagos district of São Paulo.

The venue was built in 1940 and hosted its first Formula 1 race in 1972. Due to safety concerns the event shifted away from Interlagos to Jacarepaguá from 1981 to 1989. Interlago won back the hosting rights in 1990 after it was reconfigured from an 8km circuit to a 4.9km design. The circuit underwent another major upgrade in 2007, with the existing asphalt replaced and the pit lane entrance redesigned to improve safety.

The circuit goes in an anti-clockwise direction, which is tough on drivers who are more accustomed to hard right hand turns. Unlike most circuits, which are built on flat terrain, the circuit follows the undulations of the ground on which it was constructed. The numerous inclines are physically demanding on both the cars and the drivers, although the circuit is not as bumpy as it used to be.

A key feature of Interlagos is the fact that it’s at 800m in altitude. Remi Taffin, head of Renault Sport F1 track operations, has said their engines “produce around 8 percent less power than at a sea-level race such as Korea. For these reasons we generally use engines with a higher mileage on their third race as power sensitivity is not so critical.”

Below are the most recent results in Brazil.

2012 News and Titbits

For safety reasons, Formula 1 will ban the free use of the DRS in practice and qualifying from 2013. There have been numerous incidents this year of drivers losing control when testing the limits of when they can use the DRS during those sessions.

Sauber driver Sergio Perez is under pressure to improve after failing to score a point in the last five races since his McLaren deal was announced. McLaren team boss Martin Whitmarsh has said “He has got a lot to learn and we’ve got a hard winter ahead with him.” Perez’s recent slump in form has led many to wonder if McLaren have any regrets over their decision.

Ferrari are unrepentant about their decision in Austin to deliberately give Felipe Massa a grid penalty to assist in Fernando Alonso’s title challenge. Ferrari deliberately broke the seal on the Brazilian’s gearbox, a move that carries a mandatory five-place grid penalty. The decision was made because the even-numbered side of the grid was very short of grip. Ferrari predicted that drivers on that side of the grid would lose two places at the start, so they sought to shift Alonso to the favourable side.

With a 13 point lead over Alonso, Sebastian Vettel knows that a fourth place finish or better will be enough to win the Drivers’ Championship, so recent form suggests that only a retirement should stop him. Apart from a race incident, Vettel’s primary concern will be his car’s reliability, in particular an alternator failure. Red Bull have suffered three such failures this season – the most recent of which was on Webber’s car at the US Grand Prix.

Brazilian Grand Prix Betting

Below are the latest betting odds (subject to change). Click here to compare live Brazilian Grand Prix odds across a range of Australian and international bookmakers.

Drivers’ Championship

Vettel holds a 13 point lead over Alonso and would beat Alonso in a tie-breaker should they end on equal points. If there is a tie, the driver with the most race wins is named the champion and Vettel has five race wins to Alonso’s three. This means that if Alonso finishes first to collect 25 points, Vettel would only need to finish 4th or better to be crowned champion. Looking at previous form, Vettel has finished on the podium in nine of the last eleven races, including the last six. When you add in the fact that Alonso hasn’t won a race since July, the numbers suggest that the 1.22 odds on Vettel to retain his crown are good value.

Race Odds

It is interesting to note that Webber and Massa have much longer race winner odds compared to pole betting. Bookmakers feel that Red Bull and Ferrari will sacrifice the chances of Webber and Massa, respectively, if it would benefit their team-mates’ title chances. Ferrari’s deliberate action to impose a grid penalty on Massa in Austin highlights how far teams are willing to go to benefit their leading drivers.

I fancy Hamilton more than I do Vettel in the race betting. Vettel will be looking to just get his car around the track while Hamilton would love to finish the season and his tenure with McLaren on a high. Hamilton has actually said that the key to his US Grand Prix win was that he wanted victory more than Vettel. Another factor is that the pole winner hasn’t gone on to win in Brazil since 2008. For Vettel I would be more comfortable backing him in the podium market.