THE LONG HARD LOOK
With Mike Wilson

 

That magical time of year is upon us once again. The smell of a brand new season excites Rugby League fans from all over the globe, as we prepare to watch our teams do battle in the best Rugby League competition in the world.

For those of us who enjoy a punt, it’s time to make our choices as to which team will defeat 15 others in their quest for premiership glory come the Grand Final in October. It seems like a lifetime away but as the old cliché goes: ‘We’re just taking it one game at a time.’

So let us not waste any more time and begin finding some value for the 2014 NRL Season.

Enjoy!

-Mike

 

2014 Gains: Ben Barba (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2016), Marmin Barba (Gold Coast Titans, 2015), Martin Kennedy (Sydney Roosters, 2016), Todd Lowrie (New Zealand Warriors, 2015), Stewart Mills (Cronulla Sharks, 2014), Daniel Vidot (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2015)
2014 Losses: Scott Anderson (Wakefield Wildcats), Kurt Baptiste (Canberra Raiders), Delroy Berryman (Manly Sea Eagles), Joe Bond (Mounties), Luke Capewell (Penrith Panthers), Luke Dalziel-Don (retired), Denan Kemp (Thirroul), Dunamis Lui (Manly Sea Eagles), Corey Norman (Parramatta Eels), Scott Prince (retired), Nick Slyney (London Broncos), Lama Tasi (Salford Red Devils), Caleb Timu (Mormon Mission), Peter Wallace (Penrith Panthers)
Re-Signed: Matt Gillett (2016), Jake Granville (2014), Ben Hunt (2015), Jack Reed (2017), Ashley Taylor (2016)
Off Contract 2013: Liam Georgetown, Brendon Gibb, Aaron Whitchurch, Chris McLean
2014 Coach: Anthony Griffin

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

The rumour going around is that Coach Anthony Griffin has been given 10 games to prove to club bosses that he should remain in charge of the Brisbane Broncos for the entirety of 2014. Will Ben Barba be the saviour that Griffin needs? Personally, I don’t know. Not the answer you’re looking for? Let’s look at it this way: Ben Barba in 2012 had the world at the feet and was practically in a class of his own. 2013 rolls around and off field issues put Barba in a dark place and as a result his football suffers. Now in 2014 Barba is where he asked to be, in Brisbane and the former Dally M medal winner will most definitely be in a better frame of mind than he was last year. There’s no reason why he can’t get back to near his best form if he is at peace. But I’m just a betting writer not a psychiatrist so it doesn’t pain me to admit that I’ll be giving Barba a few games before I make an official assessment on him.

A more reliable source of talent for Griffin will stem from the Broncos’ massive forward pack. Youngsters like McGuire and Gillett have more than come into their own and have taken ownership and responsibility for their positions in the squad. Veterans such as Parker and Thaiday will resume their usual places in the forwards and I’m expecting a slight improvement from Slammin’ Sam now that he has relinquished the captaincy to Parker and Hodges. Add new recruit Martin Kennedy to the fray and their forward pack gets a 5-star rating.

However a good forward pack is nothing without a good distributor and 23 year old Ben Hunt will be the man donning the number 7 jersey. Hunt, who has racked up over 80 games with the Broncos since 2009, will be able to fire at his full potential with the help of Ben Barba’s roaming style play just behind the advantage line. Who will be partnering Hunt in the halves is yet to be 100% confirmed but Griffin has hinted it could be Jordan Kahu.

So there is certainly plenty of doubt as to what the Broncos may, or may not achieve in 2014 and they are not a side I have any interest in betting-wise.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Reliable forward pack that possesses plenty of ‘go forward’ and lateral ability in defence.
Weaknesses – Underperforming coach sometimes plays his men out of position to the detriment of combinations.

Premiership Best Odds – $21 (Betfair)

2014 Gains: Kayne Brennan (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2014), Damien Cook (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2015), Reni Maitua (Parramatta Eels, 2014), Tom Murphy (2014), Pat O’Hanlon (Parramatta Eels, 2015), Tyrone Phillips (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2015), Chase Stanley (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2015), Pat Templeman (2014)
2014 Losses: Ben Barba (Brisbane Broncos), Paul Carter (Gold Coast Titans), Danny Galea (Widnes Vikings), Dene Halatau (Wests Tigers), Kris Keating (Hull Kingston Rovers), Leilani Latu (Penrith Panthers), Jack Littlejohn (Manly Sea Eagles), Joel Romelo (Melbourne Storm), Martin Taupau (Wests Tigers), Steve Turner (Retired)
Re-Signed: Greg Eastwood (2016), Dale Finucane (2016), Trent Hodkinson (2015), Josh Jackson (2016), David Klemmer (2016), Frank Pritchard (2016), Josh Reynolds (2017), Aiden Tolman (2017)
Off Contract 2013: Junior Palau
2014 Coach: Des Hasler

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

Ben Barba has departed so it’s back to business for the Bulldogs which means trying to pick up from where they left off at the end of 2012.

Barba was a huge contributing factor towards the derailing of the Bulldogs 2013 campaign thanks to his off field controversies that lost him the respect of many a teammate. When a team fails to work as a single unit then times can be bad enough, but when it’s because of one of your key players it can spell disaster as demonstrated by last year’s struggle by the Bulldogs to claw their way into the finals. Barba knew he wasn’t 100% respected within the walls of the Canterbury Bulldogs’ club walls and as a result he went from being a happy go lucky lad, with the world at his feet in 2012, to an angry, underperforming grump in 2013.

Even coach Des Hasler had appeared to have resigned himself to a wasted year as was evident by his lack of post match animation which we have come to expect from him.

Hasler knows it’s time to start again and he won’t accept anything worse than last year’s somehow acquired 6th place.

Hasler’s main hurdles this time include replacing Barba with someone of the same pedigree of the Ben Barba circa 2012 and getting the maximum out of his halves.

In the fullback stakes it is likely we will see Sam Perrett get the nod to pull on the no. 1 jersey. Perrett has plenty of experience and will likely reach 200 first games and 20 representative appearances in 2014, but that won’t equate to a winger turning into a fullback superstar. Perrett is a no bull type of player who gets his job done and should be able to hold his own at the back.

The current halves’ pairing of Hodkinson and Reynolds is a solid one but relies a lot on the creative output of Reynolds. Plus, if Reynolds gets chosen for Origin duties there is a lack of depth in these positions however new signing Chase Stanley could be the surprise stand in.

Expect improvement from this side who are a good roughie bet to finish in the top 4.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Barba gone, now Hasler can take control of his team once more.
Weaknesses – Forwards that sometimes refuse to bring their ‘A’ game.

Premiership Best Odds – $15.50 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: John Asiata (Sydney Roosters, 2015), Lachlan Coote (Penrith Panthers, 2016), Cameron King (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2015), Hezron Murgha (2015)
2014 Losses: Matt Bowen (Wigan Warriors), Kalifa Faifai Loa (Gold Coast Titans), Ashley Graham (retired), Clint Greenshields (retired), Chris Grevsmuhl (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Jayden Hodges (Manly Sea Eagles), Dallas Johnson (retired), Felise Kaufusi (Melbourne Storm), Blake Leary (Northern Pride), Tyson Martin (Mackay Cutters), Scott Moore (London Broncos)
Re-Signed: Scott Bolton (2015), Javid Bowen (2016), Glenn Hall (2014), Patrick Kaufusi (2016), Kane Linnett (2016), Ethan Lowe (2015), Robert Lui (2014), Anthony Mitchell (2014), Michael Morgan (2015), Joel Riethmuller (2015), Zac Santo (2015), Matt Scott (2017), Brent Tate (2014), Johnathan Thurston (2017)
Off Contract 2013: Wayne Ulugia
2014 Coach: Paul Green

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

It was a long and winding road for the Cowboys in 2013. They patched up a slow start to the season by making the most of their home games and scraped their way into the finals thanks to a 6 game winning streak. They then travelled to Sydney where they were unceremoniously knocked out of the finals by the Sharks in controversial fashion and suddenly the dream was over.

For this reason many will deem the Johnathan Thurston lead Cowboys to have been unlucky. And whilst I agree, I instead put it down to the close games they lost during the regular season and not the one final game that resulted in their elimination.

The Nth Qld side lost six games by six points or less and winning just one of those would have cemented them a home game in week 1 of the finals series. Who knows where they could have gone from there?

Making the finals in such a way will certainly give the side a certain confidence that they can carry into the new season and should see them contesting the finals series once more.

A big boost to the team was replacing the departing Matt Bowen with Lachlan Coote in the off season. However that recruitment coup was quickly smashed when poor old Coote’s knee exploded during the Auckland Nines, putting him out of action for up to 6 months.

Another player I’ll be keeping an eye on is young backrower Jason Taumalolo. The 20 year old New Zealander has had plenty of big wraps put on him by pundits and now with over 30 NRL games under his belt, I expect him to have a breakout season under new coach Paul Green.

If you’re a Cowboys supporter, I feel confident for you that you’ll have your beloved Cowboys still alive when the finals series kicks off.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Halfback is Golden Boot winner Johnathan Thurston. Play about a try better when at home.
Weaknesses – Poor when playing interstate matches.

Premiership Best Odds – $16.50 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: Josh Ailaomai (Sydney Roosters, 2014), Mike Cooper (Warrington Wolves, 2015), Dylan Farrell (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2016), Matt Groat (Wests Tigers, 2014), Peter Mata’utia (Newcastle Knights, 2015), Joel Thompson (Canberra Raiders, 2016), Gareth Widdop (Melbourne Storm, 2017), Sam Williams (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Michael Witt (London Broncos, 2014)
2014 Losses: Kayne Brennan (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Damien Cook (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Matt Cooper (retired), Evander Cummins (Parramatta Eels), Nathan Fien (retired), Jackson Hastings (Sydney Roosters), Cameron King (North Queensland Cowboys), Jacob Ling (Easts Tigers), Matt Prior (Cronulla Sharks), Kem Seru (Sydney Roosters), Jamie Soward (Penrith Panthers), Chase Stanley (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Daniel Vidot (Brisbane Broncos), Michael Weyman (Hull Kingston Rovers)
Re-Signed: Leeson Ah Mau (2015), Ben Creagh (2016), Josh Dugan (2017), Craig Garvey (2015), Will Matthews (2014), Adam Quinlan (2015), Mitch Rein (2016)
Off Contract 2013: Harry Siejka, Junior Vaivai, Shannon Wakeman, Todd Ryan, Atelea Vea, Bronx Goodwin, Blake Phillips
2014 Coach: Steve Price

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

Whether you love him or loathe him, Josh Dugan could turn out to be the great white hope for the St. George-Illawarra Dragons. Dugan’s impact from just 10 games for his new side in 2013 was clearly a positive one and when you speak of positivity you can be sure his new found mental state will be mentioned in the same breath. Now add to the mix an organisational playmaker in the halves and the new combination could prove to be one that generates points. The playmaker I’m referring to is Sam Williams; the man who struggled to get a run in the Raiders side when Campese and McCrone got the nod ahead of him. I expect good things to come from Williams, especially being partnered in the halves by Gareth Widdop. Widdop brings 70 games worth of invaluable experience from none other than the Melbourne Storm and with his direct brand of play being executed side by side with Williams, one can expect some enterprising attacking raids.

The Dragons’ defence is where the main question marks lie. With losses that include Matt Cooper, Michael Weyman and Nathan Fien, the average age of the squad drops from 26 to 23. The modern age of Rugby League requires coaches and assistant coaches alike to be able to tap into what it is that can make a particular player bring their best performances to games every week. Without such abilities sides will generally suffer in defence before any other element of their game takes a beating. I don’t rate Coach Steve Price as the man capable of getting the best out of a good portion of his squad now that it is a much younger unit.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Much stronger halves combination to be backed up by a state representative fullback.
Weaknesses – Coach Steve Price has yet to prove himself. Another poor start to the season will see him in the line at Centrelink having a long hard look at himself before July.

Premiership Best Odds – $50 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: Evander Cummins (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2014), Toby Evans (Penrith Panthers, 2014), Bureta Faraimo (2015), Liam Foran (Salford Red Devils, 2014), David Gower (Manly Sea Eagles, 2014), Will Hopoate (2015), Justin Hunt (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2016), Ben Jones (2014), Lee Mossop (Wigan Warriors, 2016), Corey Norman (Brisbane Broncos, 2016), Nathan Peats (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2016), Brenden Santi (Wests Tigers, 2015)
2014 Losses: Cheyse Blair (Manly Sea Eagles), Matt Keating (Burleigh Bears), Reni Maitua (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Jake Mullaney (Salford Red Devils), Pat O’Hanlon (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Ben Roberts (Melbourne Storm), Matt Ryan (Wakefield Wildcats), Taulima Tautai (Wakefield Wildcats)
Re-Signed: Mitchell Allgood (2015), Zach Dockar-Clay (2015), Ken Edwards (2015), Jarryd Hayne (2015), Jacob Loko (2015), Ryan Morgan (2015), Pauli Pauli (2015), Junior Paulo (2016), Kaysa Pritchard (2015), Semi Radradra (2015), Kelepi Tanginoa (2015), Peni Terepo (2015), Willie Tonga (2015)
Off Contract 2013: Daniel Penese, Nathan Smith, Taniela Lasalo
2014 Coach: Brad Arthur

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

We will start with Brad Arthur, the new coach of Parramatta as he would be the no. 1 addition to the club ahead of a list of new recruits to the playing roster. The 2013 Sea Eagles assistant coach brings plenty of experience to the club despite having only coached 6 NRL games when he was appointed caretaker of the club after Steve Kearney’s demise in 2012. (For the record, Arthur coached the team to 2 wins in those 6 matches where Kearney managed just 4 from the other 18 games.)

Arthur’s best asset should be his previous experience with youngsters after becoming the Melbourne Storm NYC coach in 2008 before leading that side to a Grand Final victory in 2009. That particular success saw him appointed as co-assistant to Craig Bellamy for 2010. The Eels’ 2014 squad has plenty of youngsters in the ranks and Arthur will have no problem getting on their level in order to help develop each player’s game on the field. Arthur has stated that he will try to achieve this by setting individual goals for each player while he focuses on the team structure(s). One player I’m expecting will thrive under Arthur is former Bronco Corey Norman. Norman played under Anthony Griffin at the Broncos and his game was never allowed to move to the next level and he became a talent wasted. The word out of the club in preseason is that Norman has fit in comfortably and already has the respect of teammates.

Other preseason whispers are that new hooker Nathan Peats has grabbed his dummy half role by the scruff of the neck and is shaping to be future captaincy material. If Peats can ease the pressure on his halves, particularly the fragile Chris Sandow, then he will most definitely be helping the club in the right direction. But in saying that, it is hotly tipped that Luke Kelly could end up being the first choice halfback and not Sandow.

Overall I don’t expect Parramatta to finish 2014 with another wooden spoon in the canteen drawer thanks to some good recruitment on and off the field. We have to remember that in 2011, ’12 and ’13 the club has had substandard coaches and to this day I can’t understand why the archaic mentality of the Eels’ boardroom allowed former Coach Daniel Anderson to depart after taking the side to a Grand Final. But at least now with a smarter coach in charge of the roster, the Eels can start their ‘rebuilding phase’ for real.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Strong 5/8th and dummy half recruitment will ease pressure on Sandow. New coach Brad Arthur is a major upgrade from pretenders Ricky Stuart and Steven Kearny.
Weaknesses – Chris Sandow very inconsistent for a halfback, 34 year old Moi Moi’s best footy is past him, boardroom still living in the 80’s.

Premiership Best Odds – $101 (Ladbrokes)

 

2014 Gains: Michael Dobson (Hull Kingston Rovers, 2014), Matt Minto (2014), Clint Newton (Penrith Panthers, 2014)
2014 Losses: Danny Buderus (retired), Neville Costigan (Hull Kingston Rovers), Adrian Davis (Redcliffe Dolphins), Craig Gower (retired), Siuatonga Likiliki (Gold Coast Titans), Peter Mata’utia (St George Illawarra Dragons), Kevin Naiqama (Penrith Panthers), Anthony Quinn (retired), Will Smith (Penrith Panthers)
Re-Signed: Adam Clydsdale (2016), David Fa’alogo (2014), Dane Gagai (2015), Matt Hilder (2014), Josh Mantellato (2014), Chanel Mata’utia (2014), Pat Mata’utia (2015), Sione Mata’utia (2015), James McManus (2016), Robbie Rochow (2016), Korbin Sims (2015), Timana Tahu (2014), Zane Tetevano (2015), Akuila Uate (2017)
Off Contract 2013: Mitchell Frei, Rodney Mason, Ryan Stig, Nathan Ross
2014 Coach: Wayne Bennett

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

The Knight’s 2013 season was one riddled with inconsistency; a trait Coach Wayne Bennett will not fall victim to for two years running. Despite the up and down season, Novocastrians watched their team fight doggedly through the finals only to be downed by eventual premiers the Roosters. The thrills of finals success will be fresh in the player’s minds as they look to go one better and compete in the Grand Final of 2014.

For some Knights players, the hard work is well and truly underway and this rings true for none more so than club stalwart Kurt Gidley who is currently rehabilitating himself after a shoulder reconstruction and injuries to both feet. Gidley will be the likely starting hooker for the Knights now that Buderus has retired and if he can stay in handy shape for the majority of the season, he will play an integral role in steering the Knights to a Grand Final appearance.

The decision to move Gidley to no. 9 means that young Tyrone Roberts will make the no. 7 jumper his own. More importantly, it will give Roberts a full preseason to work on combinations with halves partner. Unfortunately that halves partner was Jarrod Mullen who has since been ruled out for a lengthy period with injury. Roberts has just 3 weeks to prepare with his new five eighth which could be Michael Dobson. Experience is obviously crucial to any NRL player, but it can be especially fruitful for the instinctive playmakers such as Roberts who is good at the seemingly lost art of ‘playing what is in front of you’.

Other players I’m expecting huge improvements from are Robbie Rochow and Joey Leilua. Rochow, the fresh faced second rower knows now exactly what it takes to gets results and the Knight’s forward pack will be bolstered by familiarity despite losing over 400 games of experience following the departures of Buderus and Costigan.

Leilua was coming on so strong at the end of last season and with some applied grit and enthusiasm, he suddenly realised the rewards of hard work. Wayne Bennett will get the best out of Leilua.

The short quick look:

Strengths – The value of a shot at finals footy will equate to marked improvement from less experienced players this time around.
Weaknesses – Prone to inconsistency and lazy performances when playing away from Newcastle. Mullen’s lengthy omission due to injury cuts into halve’s depth.

Premiership Best Odds – $19 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: Luke Capewell (Mid Season: Brisbane Broncos, 2014), Jamal Idris (Gold Coast Titans, 2016), Brent Kite (Manly Sea Eagles, 2015), Leilani Latu (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2015), Kevin Naiqama (Newcastle Knights, 2015), Tyrone Peachey (Cronulla Sharks, 2015), Will Smith (Newcastle Knights, 2015), Jamie Soward (London Broncos, 2017), Shaun Spence (Wests Tigers, 2015), Elijah Taylor (New Zealand Warriors, 2016), Peter Wallace (Brisbane Broncos, 2016)
2014 Losses: Blake Austin (Wests Tigers), Cameron Ciraldo (retired), Lachlan Coote (North Queensland Cowboys), Toby Evans (Parramatta Eels), Danny Galea (Widnes Vikings), Mose Masoe (St Helens RLFC), Clint Newton (Newcastle Knights), Kyle O’Donnell (Canberra Raiders), Mosese Pangai (Canberra Raiders), Travis Robinson (Melbourne Storm), Brad Tighe (Gold Coast Titans), Luke Walsh (St Helens RLFC), Dayne Weston (Melbourne Storm)
Re-Signed: Adam Docker (2015), Isaac John (2015), Kevin Kingston (2014), Josh Mansour (2014), Matt Moylan (2015), Eto Nabuli (2014), Nigel Plum (2015), James Roberts (2015), James Segeyaro (2016), David Simmons (2015), Ryan Simpkins (2015), Nathan Smith (2014)
Off Contract 2013: Neccrom Areaiiti, Kane Morgan, Geoff Daniela
2014 Coach: Ivan Cleary

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

A plethora of personnel changes is the key theme to the Panthers’ 2014 campaign and I’m impressed by the purchases the club has made. It appears on paper that the club has acquired more value than it has lost. You just have to look at the amount of experience amongst just some of the new batch of recruits which include Soward, Wallace, Idris and Kite. All four of these players have played for NSW and Panthers boss and former coach Phil Gould knows full well the positive impact that players with such invaluable experience can have on the younger members of the squad.

Having a completely new 6 and 7 combo means the team as a whole may not function smoothly immediately but halves Soward and Wallace have been getting along like a house on fire off the field, yielding promising signs for the club. The new additions also mean that Luke Walsh has departed and I think this is a big plus as Walsh was simply never up to NRL standard.

The aforementioned Brent Kite brings nearly 300 games of NRL experience to the forwards, not to mention over 30 games’ experience in representative games.

Jamal Idris clearly has an abundance of talent but question marks over his weight and diet always hang over him. I’m not sure if Coach Ivan Cleary has any plans to change the way Idris approaches the season in Panthers’ colours but personally I think the club might be better served with Idris in the second row if he maintains his current size.

It’s Coach Cleary’s 3rd season in charge of Penrith but if his troops fail to make the finals for a 4th consecutive year, I don’t think he’ll have too much to worry about just yet from his boss Phil Gould, the same man he played under for 4 years of his career. Therefore he’ll have no pressure on him to help this new batch of players gel together and strive towards a top 8 position. On paper, there is no reason why this side can’t make the top 8 this year but I can’t rate them above certain other teams in the race to win the Grand Final.

The short quick look:

Strengths – An abundance of experience all under a coach that has been to a Grand Final in the past (2011)
Weaknesses – Portions of the squad lack finals experience. Capable of making the finals but will find it difficult to progress from there.

Premiership Best Odds – $26 (Ladbrokes)

 

2014 Gains: Kirisome Auva’a (Melbourne Storm, 2014), Chris Grevsmuhl (North Queensland Cowboys, 2015), Nathaniel Neale (2014), Joe Picker (Canberra Raiders, 2014), Joel Reddy (Wests Tigers, 2015)
2014 Losses: Roy Asotasi (Warrington Wolves), Mitchell Buckett (Wynnum Manly), Michael Crocker (retired), Andrew Everingham (Japanese rugby), Dylan Farrell (St George Illawarra Dragons), Christian Hazard (Gold Coast Titans), Justin Hunt (Parramatta Eels), Matt King (retired), Jeff Lima (Catalan Dragons), Nathan Peats (Parramatta Eels), Tyrone Phillips (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Daniel Smith (Wakefield Wildcats), Josh Starling (Manly Sea Eagles), Fetuli Talanoa (Hull FC)
Re-Signed: George Burgess (2016), Luke Burgess (2015), Thomas Burgess (2015), Bryson Goodwin (2015), Luke Keary (2015), Cameron McInnes (2015), Chris McQueen (2015), John Sutton (2017), Kyle Turner (2015), Dave Tyrrell (2015), Dylan Walker (2016)
Off Contract 2013: Shaune Corrigan, Chris Centrone, Greg Waddell
2014 Coach: Michael Maguire

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

So close yet so far; those five words form the summation of the disappointing season the Rabbitohs had in 2013. There were a plethora of positives to take away from the season but there was definitely a feeling amongst fans that 2013 should have been their year.

This year could be one of the last good chances the Rabbitohs get at making the Grand Final before finding themselves further down the ladder as the current salary cap generally dictates.
Recruitment and losses in the South Sydney ranks probably won’t have much of an impact on the team this time around as a lot of the players who are leaving are the older campaigners that had little impact in 2013 anyway.

Coach MacGuire has still retained a skilled and powerful squad and anything but another top 4 finish can be considered a failure.

With the aforementioned prediction of another consistent year from the Rabbitohs coupled with my expectation of a Roosters tumble, this could be the side that takes out the Minor Premiership.

It’s unlikely the Bunnies will suffer too many losses during the State of Period, other than Greg Inglis who will miss 3 games prior to all Origin clashes. Teo and McQueen could join Inglis in the QLD side but I’m confident the Rabbitohs to have the necessary depth to replace both of them in the forwards.

Personally I won’t back this team to win the Minor Premiership, but that particular bet sounds like a great suggestion for Rabbitohs supporters.

My best however is the Bunnies to make the Top 4 once more. This is virtually the same team that won 18 games and lost just 6 in 2013. If they can win just 15 matches in 2014 it will all but ensure a top 4 finish which looks enticing currently paying $1.80 with some bookmakers.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Good player retention with limited losses expected during the State of Origin period.
Weaknesses – Interstate travel seems to rob this side of a few more points than normal.

Premiership Best Odds – $7.20 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: Kurt Baptiste (Brisbane Broncos, 2014), Kyle O’Donnell (Penrith Panthers, 2014), Mosese Pangai (Mid Season: Penrith Panthers, 2014), Lagi Setu (Melbourne Storm, 2015), Bill Tupou (Mid Season: New Zealand Warriors, 2015)
2014 Losses: Shaun Berrigan (retired), Hayden Crockett (Mackay Cutters), Josh Dugan (St George Illawarra Dragons), Sandor Earl (French rugby), Dimitri Pelo (Burleigh Bears), Joe Picker (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Michael Picker (retired), Jonathon Reuben (Sydney Roosters), Joel Thompson (St George Illawarra Dragons), Sam Williams (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Re-Signed: Jack Ahearn (2015), Glen Buttriss (2015), Jarrod Croker (2015), Mitchell Cronin (2015), Jeremy Hawkins (2015), Jarrad Kennedy (2015), Brenko Lee (2016), Edrick Lee (2017), Jeff Lynch (2015), Matt McIlwrick (2015), Mark Nicholls (2015), Tahakilu Pangai (2016), Tevita Pangai (2016), Josh Papalii (2016), Paul Vaughan (2015), Brett White (2014), Jack Wighton (2016)
Off Contract 2013: Sami Sauiluma, Blake Ferguson, Trevor Thurling, Haydon Hodge, Scott Jones
2014 Coach: Ricky Stuart

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

The Raiders have signed Ricky Stuart as their new coach on a multiple year contract and I can’t understand why. Stuart first began his career as a first grade coach in 2002 when he walked into an already established side which was lead by future hall-of-famer Brad Fittler. When Fittler retired in 2004, Stuart’s inability to raise an NRL team became apparent. From there Stuart’s teams have finished poorly (except ’08) as the yearly ladder rankings show: Roosters 2005 (9th), 2006 (14th). Sharks 2007 – 2010 (11th, 3rd, 15th & 14th). Eels 2013 (16th and last).

Even if Stuart was the best coach in the world, he is going to be lumped with a squad that has suffered a number of high quality losses. The likes of Dugan, Ferguson, and Thompson will be hard to replace and I was always a big fan of Sam Williams. Coach Stuart couldn’t do a single thing with the youngsters of last year’s Eels’ side and I don’t see him taking the youngsters of the Raiders anywhere. But in fairness it should be mentioned that any coach would find this team difficult to handle.

The side still has plenty of big men in the forwards that include Shillington, Leahroyd-Lahrs and Tilse who have been under the hammer in pre season and you can expect them to be very lean come Round 1.

Another major point factor in my prediction of Canberra’s downfall, (and it’s been the case for years now) is their poor record in away games. With the finals system the way it is now, your team has to finish top 6 or else try and win 4 away games (unless your home ground happens to be either Allianz or AAMI Stadium) to win the Grand Final. Canberra won 2 away games in the entire season last year and for that reason I can’t see them lifting the trophy in 2014.

Not many positives to take out of this package and they will need plenty of luck just to finish 10th.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Plenty of size and experience in the forwards. Always play well at home.
Weaknesses – Poor recruitment. Poor coach. Struggle to win on the road.

Premiership Best Odds – $51 (Sportsbet)

 

2014 Gains: Remi Casty (Catalan Dragons, 2015), Jackson Hastings (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2016), Heath L’Estrange (Bradford Bulls, 2014), Curtis Naughton (Bradford Bulls, 2014), Jonathon Reuben (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Kem Seru (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2014), Sio Siua Taukeiaho (New Zealand Warriors, 2015)
2014 Losses: Josh Ailaomai (St George Illawarra Dragons), Tinirau Arona (Cronulla Sharks), John Asiata (North Queensland Cowboys), Jack Bosden (Wests Illawarra), Adam Henry (Bradford Bulls), Martin Kennedy (Brisbane Broncos), Luke O’Donnell (retired), Michael Oldfield (Catalan Dragons), Nafe Seluini (Burleigh Bears), Henare Wells (Burleigh Bears)
Re-Signed: Mitchell Aubusson (2016), Anthony Minichiello (2014), Daniel Mortimer (2015), Frank-Paul Nuuausala (2015), Mitchell Pearce (2017), Daniel Tupou (2015), Sonny Bill Williams (2014)
Off Contract 2013: Dean Blackman, Brandon Tago
2014 Coach: Trent Robinson

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

The Roosters know that history will be against them in 2014 as no side has won back to back premierships in the NRL since the Broncos achieved the feat in 1992 and 1993. With this in mind it seems like madness to take the $5.00 on offer for them to win two premierships in a row; a price which seems like raging unders. That’s not to say they don’t have the capacity to take down the 2014 premiership but I’d rate them about an $8 or $9 prospect at best and therefore I’ll be laying them for sure.

The modern day game of NRL requires players to stand up and deliver huge defensive efforts at a frenetic pace each week and being able to prepare one’s self mentally is the key. When a premiership winning team enters a new season they face 15 opponents that possess a burning desire to take that trophy from them. The premiers, having already won tend to lose a bit of that hunger; some players get caught resting on their laurels whilst others simply expect to cruise their way into another Grand Final.

You would have to feel fairly certain that the Roosters will make the finals again thanks to retaining the same big names that spearheaded to 2013 assault, but I just don’t want to roll with them this time around. I’ll be waiting to see how they fare come State of Origin time when they will like lose their halves to the NSW side for 3 games and a reassessment of this team’s chances will be necessary leading into the finals.

A particularly interesting stat is the one that shows the Roosters only losing one close game in 2013. If that kind of luck evens itself out in 2014 the Roosters will be hard up finding themselves a place in the top 4.

There’s no doubting that this squad, including Coach Trent Robinson, deserve all the plaudits they receive and it’s understandable why many are betting on them to go back to back in the NRL, but in 2014, they are not for me.

The short quick look:

Strengths – A plethora of international and state representatives in a side that has retained their premiership winning players.
Weaknesses – Will suffer during State of Origin period after what looks to be a tough draw in the first half of the season.

Premiership Best Odds – $5.10 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: Tyson Andrews (2015), Delroy Berryman (Brisbane Broncos, 2015), Cheyse Blair (Parramatta Eels, 2015), Jayden Hodges (North Queensland Cowboys, 2016), Jack Littlejohn (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2014), Dunamis Lui (Brisbane Broncos, 2014), Mark O’Dare (Gold Coast Titans, 2014), Manaia Rudolph (Wests Tigers, 2015), Josh Starling (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2016)
2014 Losses: Richie Fa’aoso (retired), Jacob Gagan (Cronulla Sharks), Joe Galuvao (retired), David Gower (Parramatta Eels), Brent Kite (Penrith Panthers), George Rose (Melbourne Storm)
Re-Signed: Justin Horo (2015), David Williams (2014)
Off Contract 2013: Dane Chisholm, Jamil Hopoate, Ben Musolino, Jason Seage, Esi Tonga, Ben Farrar, Nick Skinner, Justin Lemalu
2014 Coach: Geoff Toovey

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

If the Sea Eagles make the finals series in 2014, it will be the 10th straight season they have done so. If they make the Grand Final, it will be the 5th appearance in eight seasons. You only have to look at their squad on paper to know they have a team that could very well contest yet another Grand Final and there is no reason why they can’t put together enough wins throughout the year and make it a 10th consecutive year in the finals.

Any team with a 6, 7 and 9 combo of Foran, Cherry-Evans and Ballin is one that will play finals footy. These three men rarely have a bad game let alone a bad season and when your captain is Jamie Lyon, good things happen.

Much like the Storm however, a good portion of the Sea Eagles’ elite players are not getting any younger and 2014 might prove to be one of the last chances to strike while the iron is hot so to speak. Another downside for the squad is the loss of 4 reputable front rowers in Kite, Rose, Galuvao and Fa’aoso. Together the four veterans had over 800 games of first grade experience. Jason King resumes his place in the front row but hasn’t had much game time in the last 3 years due to injury and could get found out this season.

$8.80 is currently available for the Sea Eagles to win the premiership which is just a tad short to be grabbing my attention. Going down to Top 4 betting and the best price of $2.15 also isn’t quite enough to have me reaching for my wallet. I am however more than happy to take the quote of $1.34 for them to make the Top 8 in 2014. It seems like a lock and is far better than bank interest.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Strongest halves combo in the world.
Weaknesses – Lost a lot of experience in the front row with the departures of Kite, Rose, Galuvao and Fa’aoso

Premiership Best Odds – $8.80 (Betfair)

 

2014 Gains: Tinirau Arona (Sydney Roosters, 2014), Blake Ayshford (Wests Tigers, 2015), Jacob Gagan (Manly Sea Eagles, 2014), Eric Grothe (2014), Daniel Holdsworth (Hull FC, 2014), Matt Prior (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2015)
2014 Losses: Jayson Bukuya (New Zealand Warriors), Jon Green (Brisbane Broncos), Stewart Mills (Brisbane Broncos), Tyrone Peachey (Penrith Panthers), Ben Pomeroy (Catalan Dragons), Ben Ross (retired), Mark Taufua (retired), Chad Townsend (New Zealand Warriors)
Re-Signed: Todd Carney (2018), David Fifita (2014), Nathan Gardner (2014), Ricky Leutele (2015), John Morris (2014), Jeff Robson (2015), Nathan Stapleton (2014), Sam Tagataese (2015), Anthony Tupou (2015)
Off Contract 2013: Alipate Ratini, Pat Politoni, Rodney Coates, Daniel Moroko, Matthew Wright
2014 Coach: Peter Sharp

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

Quite a lot of emphasis is on coaches in 2014 but the Sharks find themselves in the unique position of having a caretaker coach in charge before the season has even started. For those who don’t read the papers, former Coach Shane Flanagan was suspended for a year and will resume his coaching position in 2015. So it’s up to Peter Sharp to guide the players towards the finals with the help of some experienced campaigners underneath him. But a coaching record like Peter Sharp’s is just one of the reasons I don’t hold a lot of hope for the Sharks in 2014.

In the recruitment stakes the Sharks have lost a few outside backs but have retained some players full of consistency such as Carney, Robson and Morris. Plus you can expect Andrew Fafita to continue to develop his game over the next 12 months. Some of the new purchases the Sharks have made include Daniel Holdsworth and Eric Grothe jr. Holdsworth has never impressed me as much and Eric Grothe jr. has been playing in a band for the last 3 years so I’m not sure what sort of bargain they saw in him but I’m happy to be proven wrong if he recaptures some of the form that earned him a NSW jersey in the past.

The Sharks got away with some close wins in 2013 and with the ever mounting scrutiny from media and ASADA regarding drugs charges taking their toll, the Sharks are the team I’m predicting will take a downward tumble on the ladder. This season will see about 5 or 6 sides fighting tooth and nail for 7th and 8th positions on the ladder. The Sharks will find it tough to maintain the mental fortitude required in this fight with so much going on around them off the field and I’ll be backing them to miss the top 8.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Paul Gallen plays harder than most and is like an on-field coach as well.
Weaknesses – ASADA.

Premiership Best Odds – $23 (Sportsbet)

 

2014 Gains: Hymel Hunt (Gold Coast Titans, 2014), Felise Kaufusi (North Queensland Cowboys, 2014), Ben Roberts (Parramatta Eels, 2014), Travis Robinson (Penrith Panthers, 2015), Joel Romelo (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2014), George Rose (Manly Sea Eagles, 2014), Cody Walker (2014), Dayne Weston (Penrith Panthers, 2015)
2014 Losses: Kirisome Auva’a (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Maurice Blair (Gold Coast Titans), Brett Finch (retired), Matt McGahan (rugby union), Jason Ryles (retired), Junior Sa’u (Salford Red Devils), Lagi Setu (Canberra Raiders), Denny Solomona (London Broncos), Siosaia Vave (Cronulla Sharks), Gareth Widdop (St George Illawarra Dragons)
Re-Signed: Kenneath Bromwich (2016), Will Chambers (2017), Matt Duffie (2014), Mahe Fonua (2014), Mitch Garbutt (2015), Slade Griffin (2014), Jordan McLean (2015), Junior Moors (2014), Bryan Norrie (2015), Justin O’Neill (2016), Sisa Waqa (2015), Dayne Weston (2015)
Off Contract 2013:
2014 Coach: Craig Bellamy

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

This will be the 11th season that the Melbourne Storm will field a side containing Cam Smith, Cooper Cronk and Billy Slater. These are the players that will once again form the famous ‘Big 3’ that has played an invaluable part of many finals campaigns. Cronk is likely to miss a few of the early rounds while he overcomes an injury and it will be interesting to see exactly how this changes the dynamic of the team. Billy Slater is still a try scoring machine but his knee injuries have taken a slight edge off his performance over the last year. Coach Craig Bellamy will no doubt have his backup plan ready for the loss of Cronk and potentially Slater during the year; after all he has more than proven himself to be one of the best coaches in the NRL.

On the downside however are the facts that with each passing season the ‘Big 3’ obviously turn up one year older. 2013 was a very long year for Smith, Cronk and Slater who took part in the preseason World Club Challenge, 30 weeks of NRL including State of Origin duties and the post season World Cup in the UK. All three of them are 30 years of age and it’s about now that the arduously long seasons can start taking their toll, ala Slater’s knee. I’m more than confident that the Storm can make the top 8, (not that you’d claim genius status for making that pick) but it’s tough to know if Smith, Slater and Cronk can carry a team on their shoulders all the way to a premiership. I’m not saying they can’t win but rather suggesting that the players around them, particularly the forwards, must share the load. The loss of Widdop at five/eighth will certainly leave a hole and it’s likely a younger, much more inexperienced player like Ben Hampton will fill the void. I was personally looking forward to Matt Duffie returning to the side but the poor bloke has blown his ACL and will sit out another whole season.

Another Top 8 finish can be expected, but we will wait and see how the back half of the season has panned out before making any predictions on the Melbourne Storm’s fate in the Finals Series.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Smith, Cronk and Slater – need I say more?
Weaknesses – No established five/eighth, rep season always takes its toll on this side.

Premiership Best Odds – $9.00 (Sportsbet)

 

2014 Gains: Blake Austin (Penrith Panthers, 2015), Yileen Gordon (2014), Dene Halatau (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2015), Keith Lulia (Bradford Bulls, 2015), Cory Paterson (Hull Kingston Rovers, 2014), Pat Richards (Wigan Warriors, 2015), Martin Taupau (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2016)
2014 Losses: Blake Ayshford (Cronulla Sharks), Matt Bell (Burleigh Bears), Matt Groat (St George Illawarra Dragons), Benji Marshall (rugby union), Jacob Miller (Hull FC), Mosese Pangai (Canberra Raiders), Eddy Pettybourne (Wigan Warriors), Joel Reddy (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Manaia Rudolph (Manly Sea Eagles), Brenden Santi (Parramatta Eels), Shaun Spence (Penrith Panthers)
Re-Signed: Luke Brooks (2017), Nathan Brown (2016), Michael Bullock (2014), Robbie Farah (2017), Jarred Farlow (2014), Andy Fiagatusa (2015), Asipeli Fine (2014), Liam Fulton (2016), Keith Galloway (2016), James Gavet (2014), Kyle Lovett (2015), Joel Luani (2015), Mitchell Moses (2017), Taqele Naiyaravoro (2015), Kurtis Rowe (2015), Ava Seumanufagai (2014), Tim Simona (2015)
Off Contract 2013: Sitaleki Akauola, Rory Brien, Masada Iosefa, Sean Meaney, Matt Utai, Josh Davis, Jy Hitchcox, Seffa Silafau
2014 Coach: Mick Potter

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

It’s time for the Wests Tigers to commence life without Benji Marshall, although I can hear of lot of you exclaiming ‘Who?’

Now that Benji boy has moved on to Ra Ra land he has disappeared from people’s memories quicker than that crazy frog ringtone. Suddenly, 19 year old Luke Brooks, who has played just one single NRL game is being touted as the next big thing. Now I’m not for one minute suggesting Brooks won’t go on to become a star of the game, but I think it’s a bit early to dump premiership hopes on the shoulders of a kid that has played one NRL game, albeit a blinder.

Allow me to digress back to 2008 and remind you of the story of another 19 year old named Chris Sandow. Sandow replaced superstar Craig Wing most of the way through the South Sydney Rabbitohs 2008 season when the club were already out of finals contention. Sandow put in some electric performances and earned himself the fulltime halfback role for 2009. The immense pressure proved too much and to this day, in the 5 subsequent seasons as halfback, Chris Sandow has never steered a side into a final’s series. Tim Smith was 19 in 2005 and was touted as the next Peter Sterling and Andrew Johns. Since the end of 2005, Smith’s football has suffered ever since.

My point in all this is that pressure can corrode a kid’s talent. I hope the pressure of expectation doesn’t chip away at Brook’s skill over the course of 2013 as this is a boy who has been endorsed by Rugby League Immortal, Andrew Johns and if Johns says he’s a talent, then that’s good enough for me.

There is plenty of talent littered amongst the Wests Tigers squad but they fail to excel in the ‘1 percenters’ and therefore will not be winning a premiership in 2014. They will probably waste more time looking for a new coach for 2015 as I foresee Mick Potter being on a hiding to nothing, when really the Tigers’ hierarchy should simply look at this season as one of those ‘rebuilding phases’ that underperforming coaches usually talk about.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Consistent, 100% efforts and performances from Robbie Farah.
Weaknesses – A potentially very young halves combo with little experience in NRL.

Premiership Best Odds – $67 (Sportingbet)

 

2014 Gains: Maurice Blair (Melbourne Storm, 2015), Paul Carter (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2015), Kalifa Faifai Loa (North Queensland Cowboys, 2015), Christian Hazard (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2015), Siuatonga Likiliki (Newcastle Knights, 2014), Brad Tighe (Penrith Panthers, 2015)
2014 Losses: Marmin Barba (Brisbane Broncos), Hymel Hunt (Melbourne Storm), Jamal Idris (Penrith Panthers), Mark O’Dare (Manly Sea Eagles), Luke O’Dwyer (retired), Jordan Rankin (Hull FC), Matthew Russell (Warrington Wolves)
Re-Signed: Luke Bailey (2014), Greg Bird (2017), Ashley Harrison (2015), Mark Ioane (2015), Albert Kelly (2015)
Off Contract 2013: Jordan Atkins, Shaun Carney, Shane Gray, Jahrome Hughes, Luke Page
2014 Coach: John Cartwright

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

The Titans once again go into another NRL season bubbling with hope and great expectations. And why shouldn’t they with so many big name players in their roster for yet another year? So why have they not made the finals in the last 3 seasons? Injuries and State of Origin periods could be thrown up as an excuse but I’d say the Titans fanatics are sick of hearing them.

The Gold Coast side has many big names amongst their forward pack that boasts plenty of big game experience thanks to the likes of Myles, Bird, Harrison and Taylor and the hope in 2014 for supporters is that the halves pairing of Sezer and Kelly will now have more than enough experience with each other to steer the pack around the field more efficiently. The loss of Jamal Idris would have hurt initially but new recruit Maurice Blair will fill that void in his own unique way. Blair plays on the opposite side of the field to Idris so I think Coach John Cartwright will be better served switching Brad Takairangi to the right. Personally I find Takairangi a weak link in a position where the Titans could use a bit of attacking flair.

Off the field the Titans have done well to recruit a new assistant coach in 2013 Cowboy’s coach Neil Henry. Henry has spent the last 7 years as an NRL coach, not to mention 4 years as the Mal Meninga’s assistant coach of the QLD Origin side.

The biggest bonus Henry brings to the side, besides a fresh point of view, is the experience of being around the world’s best halfback in Johnathan Thurston for the last 5 years at the Cowboys. Henry has already been holding in depth talks with Aidan Sezer on what makes Thurston so good. These lengthy chats have also included video sessions focused solely on Thurston. Expect Sezer to benefit.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Star studded forward pack, more experience in the halves and speed to burn on the wings.
Weaknesses – I can’t say their depth impresses me. Could already be starting the season with their 4th hooker if Matt Keating gets the nod.

Premiership Best Odds – $41 (Sportsbet)

 

2014 Gains: Jayson Bukuya (Cronulla Sharks, 2015), Sam Tomkins (Wigan Warriors, 2016), Chad Townsend (Cronulla Sharks, 2015)
2014 Losses: Pita Godinet (Wakefield Wildcats), Todd Lowrie (Brisbane Broncos), Steve Rapira (Salford Red Devils), Sio Siua Taukeiaho (Sydney Roosters), Elijah Taylor (Penrith Panthers), Bill Tupou (Canberra Raiders)
Re-Signed: Nathan Friend (2014), Charlie Gubb (2014), Ngani Laumape (2015), Sam Lousi (2015), Sione Lousi (2014), Suaia Matagi (2014), Feleti Mateo (2016), Sam Rapira (2015), Jerome Ropati (2014), Manu Vatuvei (2015)
Off Contract 2013: Alehana Mara, Russell Packer, Sebastine Ikahihifo
2014 Coach: Matt Elliott

THE LONG HARD LOOK:

It would take a braver soul than me to be able to back the Warriors to win the 2014 premiership. They are the team with the unenviable reputation of being more inconsistent than the Melbourne weather.

At the head of the team is Coach Matt Elliott which to me is another reason not to put my hard earned anywhere near this side. Elliott holds an unenviable record of his own having coached teams in 7 finals matches and not having won any of them. There is enough talent in Elliott’s playing roster for them to make a run at the finals but he can’t seem to get inside the brains of his players and unlock their full potential.

The result of this was the Warriors winning just 11 games and missing out on the top 8 by 2 points and finishing the season in 11th.

It’s not just inconsistencies across their season results but also in each individual match contested. The Warriors will play like world beaters in 15 minute patches here and there and then drop right off the radar at other moments resulting in close games. The Warriors were involved in 10 games last year that were decided by 6 points or less and only won 5 of them. Contesting close games can have a negative, knock on effect in following weeks and it’s not considered ‘healthy’ to be involved in them every second week. You can put it down to laziness and lack of focus in defence.

One of the big talking points surrounding the Warriors in the off season was the signing of Wigan’s Sam Tomkins. The English international is a veteran of over 150 Super League matches with plenty of talent to boot. Tomkins is likely to play fullback but is adept at playing in the halves if required. Tomkins can seemingly make everyone around him look like they are in slow motion as he unleashes his unteachable repertoire of instinctive plays in attack.

In summary, I couldn’t possibly recommend backing the Warriors in any way, shape or form in futures markets; far too risky.

The short quick look:

Strengths – Big mobile forward pack with good bench rotation.
Weaknesses – Consistently inconsistent. Prone to mental lapses in defence. Matt Elliott.

Premiership Best Odds – $17 (Sportsbet)

Player movements provided by the good people at Zero Tackle.