Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 87.25 units
Units Won = 95 units
Profit/Loss = +7.75 units (8.9% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Total match score under 163.5 points in St Kilda v Brisbane game @ 1.88
Kieran Jack most disposals in Group 2 of the Melbourne v Sydney game @ 4.25
Total match score over 183.5 points in Port Adelaide v Geelong game @ 1.88
1 unit @ combined odds of 15.02 (Sportsbet)
Friday 25 April
Collingwood v Essendon
2:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Essendon
The biggest day on the home and away calendar is upon us and two of the league’s traditional rivals will take to the field in front of over 90,000 spectators for the 20th consecutive ANZAC Day game. For the the nostalgic footy fans out there, check out the excellent video below that recaps the amazing inaugural clash back in 1995.
The MCG is expected to be bathed in glorious sunshine for the afternoon fixture, which will make for a perfect setting as Collingwood (3-2) and Essendon (2-3) battle for a spot in the top 8 come the end of the round. The Magpies have won 8 of their past 9 meetings against the Bombers, although the one loss came in this fixture last year.
Collingwood have named an unchanged line-up for the second successive week, while Essendon have recalled pacy duo Courtney Dempsey and Jason Winderlich, with tagger Heath Hocking and big-kicking wingman David Myers both out through injury. The injury to Hocking means the Bombers are without their best shutdown midfielder, which is not good timing considering Magpies midfield comprises three of the best ball winners in the league – Scott Pendlebury, Dayne Beams and Dane Swan.
As long as Collingwood’s inexperienced defensive unit continues to hold up, the Magpies appear to be playing a more settled brand of football and have the big stars to outgun to the Bombers.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win @ 1.60 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Heritier Lumumba to score more Super Coach points than Alex Fasolo @ 1.95 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Scott Pendlebury to win the ANZAC Day medal @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
St Kilda v Brisbane
5:45 PM AEST, Westpac Stadium, Wellington
View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Brisbane
For the second successive year, St Kilda lead the AFL’s charge into New Zealand for an overseas ANZAC Day match. Brisbane have been paired with the Saints for the match this season, with both teams making the journey across the ditch into relatively unfamiliar AFL territory. St Kilda will have travelled in good spirits after outplaying Essendon last week to secure their third win of the season, leaving Alan Richardson’s team within touching distance of the top 8. Brisbane, meanwhile, have had an awful start to their campaign, losing all five of their matches and winning only one quarter for the whole season.
St Kilda’s surprising early season success is amost all to do with the stunning form of high-flying and hard-running Nick Riewoldt. The recognisable blond star has been tearing the competition a new one so far during 2014, producing best-on-ground performances in all three of the Saints wins.
As delighted as he would be with the form and leadership of Riewoldt, Richardson would be acutely aware of how reliant his side is on the output of their skipper, which is demonstrated by the fact that Riewoldt has kicked 33% of his team’s goals so far this year. If the opposition are able to defend Riewoldt, or limit the ball supply that comes to him, they are already most of the way down the path to victory.
Given Brisbane’s start to the season, I think it is fairly safe to assume the Saints will be able to direct a fair bit of ball in Riewoldt’s direction this Friday night, although the Brisbane backline will be strengthened by the return from suspension of key position defender Daniel Merrett, while flashy wingman Pearce Hanley and experienced tagger Andrew Raines will also improve the Lions team.
The total match score in Wellington last year was only 142 points, and with showers forecast for most of the day over there, the unders look like a strong option in the total match score market. I think the Saints will win, but it is likely to be very close, so I am not going to bet in the head to head or margin markets.
Andy’s Bet: 1.25 units on Total Match Score under 163.5 points @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Nick Riewoldt to kick the most goals @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Fremantle v North Melbourne
8:45 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v North Melbourne
The third and final ANZAC Day game will be played in Perth between Fremantle and North Melbourne. Both sides lost last week to slip to 3-2 after the first five rounds, making this a crucial match to win for these teams that harbour aspirations of a top 4 place at the end of the season.
The venue for this fixture is Patersons Stadium and that shapes as the defining factor in the outcome. Fremantle’s record on home turf is exceptional and is beginning to rival what Geelong have been doing down at Simonds Stadium. The Dockers have won their past 13 matches at Patersons, with the 12 most recent being won by at least 22 points. Given the line for this match is at 23.5 points, I think that is good value for the Dockers.
Fremantle are without their two most dangerous small forwards after Hayden Ballantyne was suspended last weekend, joining long-term injury victim Michael Walters on the sidelines, while ball magnet Michael Barlow is still absent from the midfield. The news is just as bad at North Melbourne with silky smooth midfielder Daniel Wells out with a foot injury, while key defender Scott Thompson misses through suspension.
North Melbourne regularly rely on the spark of veteran Brent Harvey to help win matches, but Harvey is likely to cop a heavy tag from Ryan Crowley this week. Crowley won that personal duel last year and I reckon he can do so again this year, which will go a long way to securing Fremantle the win.
Note that the line bet is 2.00 odds. This is with Palmerbet and is part of their promotion that runs form 4pm to 7pm each Friday.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle at the line (-23.5) @ 2.00 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Ben Cunnington to score more Super Coach points than Brent Harvey @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 26 April
Gold Coast v Greater Western Sydney
1:40 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast
View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v GWS
The early Saturday afternoon match is the latest installment of our biannual chance to measure the progress of the two expansion clubs against each other. During the first 5 rounds both Gold Coast and GWS have made pleasing improvements on their 2013 form, with the Suns threatening the finals places and the Giants already bagging more wins this campaign than they managed for the whole of last season.
Since losing the first meeting between these clubs back in 2012, Gold Coast have bounced back strongly to win the past three encounters by an average margin of 52 points. I think that will gave the Suns the mental edge heading into this match.
Experienced rebounding defender Heath Shaw returns from injury for GWS, but the Giants have lost two promising youngsters. Third-year player Toby Greene will miss through suspension, while exciting first-year midfielder Josh Kelly has been ruled out due to a hamstring injury.
Gold Coast should win, but the head to head and line markets seem to be well set, so I will head elsewhere in my quest to find good value. Michael Rischitelli is having his best season at the Suns and has had at least 20 possessions in four of his five games this year to be the standout option in the second tier most disposals group. My money will be on Rischitelli in this one.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Michael Rischitelli most disposals in Group 2 @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)
Carlton v West Coast
4:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Carlton v West Coast
After a week of intense media scrutiny, Carlton picked themselves up off the canvas to play some exhilarating football last Sunday against the Western Bulldogs and post their first win of the season. Things weren’t so rosy for West Coast as the Eagles succumbed at home to Port Adelaide. Despite that loss the Eagles still sit in the top 4, although the middle of the ladder is tightly bunched and only percentage separates them from 9th placed St Kilda.
Last week’s win did come at a cost for the Blues, with inspirational midfielder Chris Judd significantly injuring his hamstring less than 10 minutes after coming on as the substitute in his first appearance of the season. Judd is joined on the sidelines by fellow injured midfielders Ed Curnow and Tom Bell. Their injuries allow for recalls for experienced players Brock McLean and Mitch Robinson, while key position defender Michael Jamison returns from injury just in time for the matchup against the Eagles dangerous tall forward-line. West Coast have lost key backman Darren Glass, with Will Schofield promoted to replace him.
Carlton’s performance last week was in keeping with what I was expecting from them this year. If their season is to be salvaged, the Blues must win this game to get some momentum going. Unfortunately for Carlton fans, I think West Coast are the stronger team and will be just as desperate for a win to keep their spot in the top 4. This should be an exciting game nonetheless.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on West Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.40 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Scott Selwood most disposals in Group 2 @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)
Melbourne v Sydney
7:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Sydney
The AFL clubs from Australia’s two most populated cities meet this Saturday night at Australia’s premier sporting facility. On paper that shapes as a juicy and high-profile contest, but in reality there is likely to be less than 30,000 fans turning up to engage in this match. Melbourne and Sydney may be rivals in many contexts, but AFL is certainly not one of them.
The team from the harbour city will travel south for this meeting, bringing their confidence with them after a comprehensive win against highly-rated Fremantle last weekend. Melbourne generally kept pace with Gold Coast in their match last Sunday, however that was largely due to the horrible inaccuracy of the Suns, who booted 11.20 to win by only 8 points despite having 8 more scoring shots.
Sydney’s win over Fremantle last weekend was the second time this season the Swans have played the tough, contested brand of football we expect to see from them. Perhaps this time they will be able to back it up two weeks in a row after some previous hiccups. The defensive side of Sydney’s game still hasn’t been that bad because John Longmire’s team is still yet to conceded more than 100 points in a single game this year. Given Melbourne have only averaged less than 60 points per game so far this year, I fear another low total is coming from them.
And let’s hope Lance Franklin can kick a football straighter than he can drive a car.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney at the line (-42.5) @ 2.00 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Melbourne’s total score to be under 62.5 points @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Lance Franklin most goals @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 27 April
Western Bulldogs v Adelaide
1:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
If the AFL released the ladder each week in the style of a music charts program, Adelaide would be listed as 12th this week. 12th with a bullet! The Crows are flying high at the moment after playing themselves into form with massive wins over St Kilda and GWS in the past fortnight to soar off the bottom of the ladder. The Bulldogs have generally disappointed me this season, with a great first half against Richmond and stunning final quarter against GWS enough to propel them to two wins, but the Doggies have not produced much in the other 17 quarters they have played. Last weekend’s loss against Carlton was especially disappointing considering the Blues were running out of fit players during the second half and were seemingly there for the taking.
The Bulldogs have lost patience with tagger Mitch Wallis and key position player Tom Williams, dropping both of them for this weeks match, while the Crows lose running midfielder Richard Douglas to suspension. Wallis’s omission is particularly interesting considering Adelaide’s game breaker Patrick Dangerfield returned to form with 30 possessions and 5 goals last week in a complete individual performance. Without Wallis, I’m not sure who goes to Dangerfield.
There is a lot to like about Adelaide at the moment and travelling interstate to play at Etihad Stadium should hold no fears for them after their 86 point win over St Kilda at this venue a fortnight ago.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Adelaide at the line (-7.5) @ 2.00 (Palmerbet)
Richmond v Hawthorn
3:20 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Hawthorn
This Sunday afternoon will carry the tag of mini MCG blockbuster. It could have been so much more than that but Richmond have struggled through the opening weeks of the season to sit 11th on the ladder with a 2-3 win-loss record. Hawthorn have generally kept their end up the bargain up, with Alastair Clarkson’s defending champions sitting 3rd on the ladder and only suffering the single defeat, which came in last Monday’s high-intensity clash with Geelong. But Hawthorn always lose their home and away matches to Geelong, so the Hawks won’t be panicking after that loss.
Richmond’s two victories this season have come against struggling Carlton and winless Brisbane, and the Tigers have been playing poorly despite a nice set of fixtures that has not seen them play a team from the top 5. Hawthorn are the highest scoring team in the league and should be able to post another big score against a Richmond backline that is still prone to regular defensive lapses that gift easy goals to their opposition.
The Tigers have an excellent recent record against the Hawks, winning both times the clubs have met since the start of the 2012, which is pretty good going considering Hawthorn finished on top of the ladder in both of those years. Despite all that, this game will bust open at some stage, and when it does it is likely that Hawthorn will be the team doing the heavy scoring.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 40 points or more @ 2.34 (Palmerbet)
Port Adelaide v Geelong
4:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Geelong
There is a bit of deja vu as I preview this game. For the second successive week, Geelong will play in the closing game of the week, which will again carry match of the round status and contain the top 2 teams on the ladder. The Cats disposed of Hawthorn last week to become the only unbeaten team after the first five weeks and confirm their status as a genuine Premiership contender. After a big win in the west against the Eagles, Port Adelaide leapfrogged the Hawks to now occupy the second rung on the ladder. That means this meeting comes at a great time for the football public as we will now get to measure the Power against the league leader, which will enable us to find out whether Port is a good team or a really good team.
Geelong thrashed Port Adelaide in the 2007 Grand Final, which was the start of an impressive streak in their head to head history that is still enduring 10 matches on. For Port Adelaide that will present an extra mental challenge for them above the already large task of tackling a league leader.
Each week I talk about Port Adelaide’s running prowess and ability to wear their opposition down over four quarters. Perhaps this week they will meet their match though, with Geelong winning all 5 of their last quarters this year.
This match will be end to end and played at a frenzied pace. The cumulative distance covered by all players will be more than the equivalent of 10 marathons, so the game will definitely be more open the general congested fare served up in many matches this season. I think the Cats are the more skilled team, so they might just sneak the victory in a high scoring game.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong to win by 19 points or less @ 4.10 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Total Match Score over 183.5 points @ 1.88 (Bet365)
Betting Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.625 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.295 |
-36.0% |
| Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
| H2H |
11 |
4.31 |
30% |
| 2-leg Multi |
6 |
4.25 |
71% |
| Supercoach player H2H |
1 |
3 |
75% |
| Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85% |
| Supercoach group |
1 |
2 |
200% |
| Goals Pick Your Own Line |
3 |
1.75 |
78% |
| Dream Team Individual Line |
1 |
1.74 |
87% |
| Second Half Line |
1 |
0.9 |
90% |
| Either Team 15 points or less |
1 |
0.825 |
165% |
| 25 points or more |
1 |
0.82 |
82% |
| 16 points or more |
1 |
0.68 |
68% |
| Line |
12 |
0.4 |
3% |
| Most Disposals in Group B |
4 |
0.25 |
9% |
| Dream Team Group |
1 |
-0.5 |
-100% |
| Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.5 |
-100% |
| Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.5 |
-100% |
| Most Disposals in Group A |
4 |
-0.7 |
-16% |
| Either Team 24 points or less |
2 |
-1.5 |
-100% |
| Win Q4 |
1 |
-2 |
-100% |
| Total Match Score (line) |
6 |
-3.225 |
-40% |
| Most Goals |
7 |
-3.25 |
-59% |
| 39 points or less |
11 |
-3.55 |
-35% |