AFL Round 11 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 167.75 units
Units Won = 172.22 units
Profit/Loss = +4.47 units (2.7% profit)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.

 

Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Carlton at the line (-16.5) @ 1.92

Fremantle at the line (-34.5) @ 1.92

West Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20

1 unit @ combined odds of 8.11 (Sportsbet)

 

Friday 30 May

St Kilda v Collingwood

7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Collingwood

Collingwood produced a gutsy display last week to defeat West Coast by 8 points despite having both key position defenders injured and out of the game before half time. That win was the Magpies fifth from their past six matches, lifting them to 6^th on the ladder and only percentage from the top 4. St Kilda had the bye last week, which came at an important time for the developing group that was running out of steam and had lost four on the trot to fall to 16^th on the ladder after an impressive first five weeks.

In my preview for the Collingwood game last week, I mentioned that the Magpies managed to maintain contact with Adelaide on the scoreboard a fortnight ago despite being smashed in most of the key statistical indicators. The same thing happened last week against West Coast as the Eagles had significantly more kicks and inside 50s, but this time the Pies produced a big final quarter to bag the victory after they hung on through the first three terms.

Collingwood defender Nathan Brown has been ruled out for the rest of the season due to a shoulder injury and has been replaced by the inexperienced Lachie Keeffe. The Magpies will be hoping that youngster Jack Frost recovers from his concussion last weekend, because without him, Keeffe will have to go to Nick Riewoldt, who is St Kilda’s lone hope in attack. I would be tipping Riewoldt to get the better of Keeffe due to superior agility and fitness, so the St Kilda ace could be in for a bag of goals even if his team gets well beaten.

Wheter or not Riewoldt has a night out, Collingwood should have too many other winners across the ground and I expect the Magpies will post their biggest win of the year.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win by 40 points or more @ 1.67 (Sportingbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Nick Riewoldt to score 3 or more goals @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)

 

Saturday 31 May

Melbourne v Port Adelaide

1:40 PM AEST, Traeger Park, Alice Springs

View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Port Adelaide

The AFL has branded this round Indigenous Round and Melbourne is hosting an interstate match in Alice Springs to mark the occasion. Traeger Park is the venue for the match and the local surrounds should provide a stunning backdrop, while the surface is apparently well maintained.

Melbourne are developing into a tough opponent under new coach Paul Roos, which is exemplified by the fact that they are conceding an average of only 80 points per game this season, compared with 122 last year and 106 in 2012. This extra defensive emphasis has come at a cost, with scoring output reducing, but the Demons have found a better balance in recent weeks, kicking scores of 70, 83 and 91 points. However, they will struggle in attack this week without the physical presence of Chris Dawes, who was been suspended during their last game.

Despite the optimism for Melbourne, it needs to be mentioned that the Demons two most recent wins were somewhat fortunately gained through inaccurate goal kicking by their opponents, with Adelaide managing 7 more shots at goal despite losing by 3 points in Round 7, and Richmond having 8 more scoring shots even though they lost by 17 points in Round 9. And Carlton had more scoring shots in their Round 4 matchup with Melbourne, which was the Demons only other win this year.

Unless Port Adelaide have a bad case of the goal kicking yips, this should be a comfortable Power victory.

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Port Adelaide to win by 40 points or more @ 2.06 (Palmerbet)

 

Brisbane Lions v Carlton

4:40 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane

View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v Carlton

Rewind to the end of Round 4 and Carlton was a club in crisis. The Blues had lost their first four matches, including a thrashing by bitter rival Essendon and an ignominious defeat against Melbourne before we realised the Demons are actually not that bad under new coach Paul Roos. Five matches on and Carlton coach Mick Malthouse has guided his team back into finals contentions with four wins, punctuated by a gritty 5 point win against an in-form Adelaide team last Sunday. Brisbane have no such finals aspirations and rookie coach Justin Leppitsch’s main goal for the rest of the season will be to avoid the wooden spoon, which will require an improvement given the Lions are currently in last place and a win plus percentage behind their next rival.

Brisbane have been boosted at selection by the return of their best midfielder (Tom Rockliff) and best defender (Joel Patfull), so I expect a better showing from the Lions than their 87 point loss to North Melbourne last time out. Carlton’s rebounding defender Andrew Walker will miss with a knee injury, but there is some good news for the Blues with veteran tagger Andrew Carrazzo returning along with hard-nut half-forward Mitch Robinson.

Even with Rockliff and Patfull back, I expect the Lions will struggle and given 7 of their 8 losses this year have been by 25 points or more, Carlton look excellent value at the line of 15.5 points.

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Carlton at the line (-15.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Brock McLean most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Essendon v Richmond

7:45 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Essendon v Richmond

The annual Dreamtime at the ‘G match takes place this Saturday night between Essendon and Richmond. This year will be the 10th time these clubs have played on this occasion and the Bombers lead the head to head count 5-4. Despite there being few close battles, this fixture rarely results in a blow-out, with the biggest winning margin only 40 points.

Both teams have only won 2 of their past 6 matches, although Richmond did manage a big win over GWS last week, so at least the Tigers bring winning form into this match, whereas Essendon have not won since Round 8. But I wouldn’t read too much into Richmond’s mauling of GWS though, because the Giants are at a low ebb at the moment and are getting demolished by everyone.

Perhaps a decisive factor is that this game is being played at the MCG and Essendon appear to play the ground better than Richmond. The Tigers have lost their last 4 matches here, while the Bombers thrashed Carlton and were very competitive against Collingwood in their only two visits to the venue so far in 2104.

Both teams have wheeled out the big guns for this clash, with Essendon recalling elite half forward Paul Chapman from suspension and the underrated Jason Winderlich from injury, while big Richmond ruckman Ivan Maric comes in for his first game of the year after an injury interrupted pre-season.

Richmond’s poor MCG record means I am going to be on Essendon in this one.

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Essendon to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Paul Chapman most goals @ 6.50 (Sportsbet)

 

Sunday 1 June

Adelaide v Gold Coast

1:10 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v Adelaide

Gold Coast enter this match sitting pretty in 3rd on the ladder and boasting a 5-game winning run, while their hosts, Adelaide, have won 4 of their past 6, with the two defeats both less than a goal. Based on that information, this should be a high quality match between two teams in good form.

With all the hype surrounding Gold Coast at the moment, I am going to the play the role of party pooper and suggest that they still haven’t proved very much other than they have clearly elevated themselves out of the bottom six and should challenge for one of the last few spots in the top 8 at the end of the season. The reason I say this is that the Suns are 6-0 against the bottom six teams so far this year, but only 1-2 against teams in the top 12. Over the next six weeks Guy McKenna’s side will play a team in the top 10 each week, and I think hopes of a top 4 berth will be gone once that tough stretch of fixtures has been completed.

Talented Gold Coast midfielder Harley Bennell misses this match with a calf injury, which is the only main team news heading into the contest. I am going to tip Adelaide for the win because I think Gold Coast is a touch overrated at this stage of the season. But I am prepared to eat humble pie if I am wrong!

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Adelaide to win @ 1.68 (Sportsbet)

 

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

3:20 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Western Bulldogs v Fremantle

This clash between Western Bulldogs and Fremantle will be one of the more low key matches of the round, with most people expecting a professional Dockers victory obtained via a minimum of fuss against an opponent that hasn’t threatened to win these types of games for the past few years.

The Bulldogs ladder position of 14th isn’t a horrible result for a club that is early in its rebuild under coach Brendan McCartney, but I fear that position is going to get worse over the next two months as the Doggies pay the price for squandering a very soft draw to this point of their campaign. After 9 matches, the Bulldogs haven’t played a team ranked higher than 8th placed North Melbourne, so they still have the top 7 teams to play, which begins with this visit from a Fremantle team that has performed below expectations so far this year, occupying only 7th spot on the ladder despite featuring in last year’s Grand Final.

Luke McPharlin is a great inclusion for Fremantle at full back, while Garrick Ibbotson might return after a lengthy injury layoff as he has been named on the extended bench alongside ex-Melbourne man Colin Sylvia.

My bet for this game is for Fremantle’s mean defence to restrict the Dogs to a very low total.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Western Bulldogs total score to be under 68.5 points @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)

 

Hawthorn v Greater Western Sydney

4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v GWS

Unusually, the main injury news in the lead up to this clash surrounds one of the coaches, with Hawthorn boss Alastair Clarkson sidelined from the coaches box due to a serious back injury (Guillain-Barre sydnrome). The injury means that Clarkson will certainly miss the next few weeks, and maybe the rest of the season. Clarkson’s injury continues the rotten run of bad luck that has dogged the Hawks this year, with the team losing multiple key players to lengthy injury layoffs already in 2014.

Even though their injury list keeps growing, the Hawks are still clinging to a place in the top 4 and will welcome this match against a hopelessly out of form GWS side that has lost its last two games by over 100 points.

These two teams average the highest scoring games so far this year, with GWS games averaging 199 points and Hawthorn games averaging 196 points. This is too close to the total match points line of 195.5, so I am not going to make a play in this market, but I am making a note of it because it should be a good high-scoring match to watch.

With Sam Mitchell out injured, Shaun Burgoyne is playing more minutes in the center square and he should see enough of the ball to get more dream team points than Isaac Smith, who will flash in and out of the game from his wing.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Shaun Burgoyne to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Isaac Smith @ 1.88 (Sportsbet)

 

West Coast v North Melbourne

7:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth

View a detailed form guide for West Coast v North Melbourne

Another ridiculous Sunday night match has been scheduled to round the week out, but at least the match will be played in the twilight timeslot for the locals in Perth. For the second weekend in a row West Coast enter the round in 9th and play a Victorian team just one win higher on the ladder, and after losing to Collingwood last week, the Eagles will be desperate for a victory over North Melbourne this weekend. It is a big game, because a West Coast win would see North Melbourne tumble out of the top 8, while a Kangaroos triumph would catapult them two wins ahead of the Eagles.

I’m going to introduce you to a new statistic this week, which I have coined the ‘Mark LeCras factor’ after West Coast’s dangerous small forward. LeCras missed last week’s loss through suspension and was also sidelined for a few games earlier in the year due to injury. I noticed the Eagles seemed to struggle in his absence, so I did some research and found out that West Coast are 4-0 when LeCras has played this season and are 0-5 when he hasn’t. Now, there are a whole bunch of other factors that can explain these results, notably the quality of the opposition when he has or hasn’t played, but it is a very interesting statistic nonetheless. So I kept digging. Since the start of the 2011 season, LeCras has had an unfortunate run with injury and has missed nearly as many matches as he has played. During that time he has played 41 games and West Coast has won 68% of those, which is a big improvement on the 49% of games the team has won from the 39 matches he has missed. You can loosely take from that the Eagles are 20% more likely to win when LeCras is in the team.

I am not going to blur my thinking with anything else. LeCras returns from suspension this week and I am banking on the ‘Mark LeCras factor’ to deliver a West Coast win.

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on West Coast to win @ 1.64 (Sportingbet)

 

 

Betting Summary

 

Round by Round Summary