AFL Round 12 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 183.75 units
Units Won = 183.55 units
Profit/Loss = -0.20 units (0.1% loss)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.

 

Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Western Bulldogs to win by 20 points or more @ 1.92

Essendon to win by 40 points or more @ 1.92

Total Match Score under 162.5 in Fremantle v Adelaide match @ 1.88

1 unit @ combined odds of 6.93 (Sportsbet)

 

Friday 6 June

Geelong v Carlton

7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Geelong v Carlton

Geelong were humiliated by Sydney at the SCG last Thursday night, with Chris Scott’s team losing by 110 points, which was their first 100 point reverse since 2006. As a result of that big loss the Cats slipped from 2^nd to 6^th on the ladder and they now have the worst percentage of any side in the top 11 ladder positions. Round 11 was also a painful one for Carlton as the Blues lost against bottom placed Brisbane despite leading by 16 points halfway through the last quarter. That defeat left the Blues two wins and significant percentage outside the top 8.

Matches between these clubs have been quite exciting in recent seasons, and even though Geelong has won all three games played since 2010, the margin has never been more than 16 points. After last weekend’s result Carlton must have been hoping gun midfielder Chris Judd would have been fit enough to return from his hamstring injury for this game, but Judd will again be absent when the Blues run out this week. In better news, rebounding defender Andrew Walker is back from his one week injury.

Geelong’s defenders were outclassed against Sydney last week, but the Cats will be much stronger in that part of the ground on Friday night, with experienced duo Tom Lonergan and Corey Enright returning after a week on the sidelines. The extra coolness down back should ensure Geelong manage a comfortable win and bounce straight back from their horror show in Sydney last round.

And even though Marc Murphy dominated against Brisbane last week, he is likely to cop the Cam Guthrie tag in this game and that should limit his output, therefore I think Kade Simpson is good value in the head to head AFL Fantasy Dream Team market with Murphy.

Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Geelong to win by 16 points or more @ 1.48 (Bookmaker)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Kade Simpson to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Marc Murphy  @ 2.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Saturday 7 June

Hawthorn v West Coast

1:40 PM AEST, Aurora Stadium, Launceston

View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v West Coast

Hawthorn have been cursed by a succession of injuries to key players this season and even club coach Alastair Clarkson is currently sidelined by a serious back ailment, but despite all the bad luck, Hawthorn’s unconvincing win over GWS last Sunday lifted the club into second position on the ladder. It is the opposite story for West Coast as the Eagles were comprehensively outplayed by North Melbourne on home turf last Sunday night.

That loss by West Coast continued their pattern of defeats against the better teams. The Eagles are 4-0 this season against clubs in the bottom six, but are worryingly 0-6 against teams ranked in the top 12. So even though Hawthorn are depleted by a large injury list, the Eagles are still strong underdogs heading into this match. Another statistic that points to a Hawthorn victory is the Hawks winning record when playing in Tasmania. At their home away from home, the brown and gold are 15-1 since the midway point of 2010.

There is finally some good injury news for the Hawks with Cyril Rioli back from a hamstring injury to provide some x-factor on the half forward line and grunt midfielder Jordan Lewis returns from a little niggle that kept him out of last week’s clash with the Giants. For West Coast, leading goalkicker Josh Kennedy is out with a fractured cheekbone, which means that his Socceroo striking namesake isn’t the only Josh Kennedy to be struck down by injury this week.

I think Hawthorn will win but they are still missing plenty of key players, so the margin shouldn’t blow out too far.

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Hawthorn to win by 39 points or less @ 2.36 (Palmerbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Jarryd Roughead most goals @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Port Adelaide v St Kilda

4:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v St Kilda

The league leaders entertain one of the cellar dwellers in this Saturday twilight match from Adelaide’s new football home. Port Adelaide were well below their best against Melbourne last Saturday, but Ken Hinkley’s mob still did enough to pocket their 7^th win in a row and build a two game buffer at the top of the ladder. St Kilda’s formline is a complete contrast to Port Adelaide’s, with the Saints falling to their fifth defeat in a row last Friday night against Collingwood. The Saints were beaten by 86 points, which was the third time this season they have lost by more than 80 points and further illustrates how much work rookie coach Alan Richardson has in front of him.

Richardson used to be on Port Adelaide’s coaching staff, so should be well aware of the talent he will have to stop this Saturday, which includes Power skipper Travis Boak and dynamic half forward Chad Wingard, who are both fit to play despite picking up injuries against the Demons last week. In further positive selection news for the Power, silky midfielder Hamish Hartlett and former captain Dom Cassisi are both recalled after injury layoffs. For their part, the Saints have shuffled their pack and made four changes mostly involving fringe players, with only one due to injury as veteran half forward Adam Schneider misses with a foot injury.

The Saints looked really flat last week against Collingwood and were outscored by 59 points in the second half. Surely the league leaders will be able to cover that margin during a whole game.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Port Adelaide at the line (-61.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jared Polec most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Chad Wingard most goals (but wait until final teams are announced 90 mins before the match to ensure Wingard has been passed fit to play) @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Greater Western Sydney v Essendon

7:40 PM AEST, Spotless Stadium, Sydney

View a detailed form guide for GWS v Essendon

After two consecutive horror outings that resulted in 100 point defeats, Greater Western Sydney’s youngsters put in a bold showing against Hawthorn last Sunday and won plenty of respect from the football public even though they didn’t win the game. The Giants lost to the Hawks by 7 points, but the performance showed just how good the young team is when they get into their groove. Essendon enjoyed a good patch of form during May to go 3-1 during the month and climb to 10^th on the ladder, and the Bombers will be going all out for a big win against GWS this weekend to try and boost their percentage, which is inferior to all of the teams above them except Geelong.

Essendon’s good recent form has seen them enter this game with an unchanged line-up, while GWS have made two changes, including the recall of talented midfielder Stephen Coniglio and the loss of suspended key forward Jeremy Cameron.

Essendon are chasing a top 8 spot and are just about at full strength. I think they are going to win handsomely.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Essendon to win by 60 points or more @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Paul Chapman mot goals @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions

7:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Western Bulldogs v Brisbane

After quickly realising that the Bulldogs hadn’t progressed as much as I was expecting during the off-season, I have found them to be one of the easier teams to read during the past couple of months. The Doggies rarely get blown off the park by their opposition, rarely win when they’re not supposed to and regularly get the points on the few occasions they are expected to do so. Brisbane are still bottom of the ladder despite a hard-fought win over Carlton last Saturday, although the Lions are now level on wins with GWS and only one game behind a bunch of teams, including Western Bulldogs.

Even though the Bulldogs have suffered nearly as many defeats as Brisbane this year, the Lions down periods have been far more pronounced, with 6 losses by more than 40 points compared to just two for the Dogs. Away from home the Lions have been particularly poor, with an average losing margin of 75 points, although a three point win over St Kilda in New Zealand was a rare highlight.

Brisbane’s backup ruckman Trent West seriously injured his knee last week and has joined number 1 ruckman Matthew Leuenberger on the sidelines. In their absence, former Melbourne discard Stefan Martin gets his chance, but Martin will be in for a tough evening against formidable Western Bulldogs big man Will Minson.

As I said earlier, the Doggies generally win on the rare occasion they are expected to. This is one of those times.

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Western Bulldogs at the line (-18.5) @ 1.92 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Ryan Griffen most disposals in Gr1 @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Sunday 8 June

Gold Coast v Sydney

3:20 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast

View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v Sydney

Last weekend’s 32 point defeat to Adelaide was a reality check for Guy McKenna’s high-flying Gold Coast squad. The Suns dropped to 5^th on the table after that defeat and it continued their concerning record against the better sides, with the Suns now 1-3 against teams in the top 12. That stat is particularly concerning given Gold Coast’s next five matches will be played against clubs in the top 12. They could be out of the top 8 by the beginning of July.

Sydney have had no such problems and won their sixth match in a row last Thursday night as they smashed Geelong by 110 points. The magnitude of that victory was significant because those type of defeats for the Cats are rarer than an optimistic Socceroos fan ahead of the 2014 World Cup.

As the victory over Geelong shows, the Swans haven’t just been beating teams, they have been smashing them. Their winning margins over this 6 game winning run have been 17, 31, 79, 19, 50 and 110 points. And that stretch includes victories over the three other teams that made it to the Preliminary Finals last year.

The Suns struggled to cope with Adelaide’s tall timber last week and Taylor Walker kicked five goals for the Crows. Expect Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett to combine for more than that this Sunday and propel the Swans to a comfortable win.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 25 points or more @ 1.68 (Sportingbet)

 

Fremantle v Adelaide

4:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth

View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Adelaide

Fremantle were one of the premiership fancies at the beginning of the season, however the Dockers are only ranked 7^th heading towards the halfway mark of the season. As someone who jumped on the Freo bandwagon early, I am not going to get off now because this is when Ross Lyon’s team will make its charge. The Dockers early season draw was a shocker and they played 9 of the top 11 teams in their first 9 games before being pitted against the 14^th placed Western Bulldogs for a comfortable victory last week. 9^th placed Adelaide will be Fremantle’s opponent this weekend, meaning the Dockers will have played all 10 other teams from the top 11, leaving them with no matches against a top 8 opponent until they meet Geelong in August.

Adelaide are in decent form for a team outside the top 8, winning 5 of their past 7 games, but the Crows are yet to claim the scalp of a decent team on the road, so I am wary of how they will perform against frugal Fremantle in Perth.

Both teams will go into the match with settled line-ups, although Adelaide ruckman Sam Jacobs was subbed out of the game injured last Sunday and might be a late withdrawal for this one. Even if he plays, Jacobs is likely to be below 100%, so look for Fremantle goliath Aaron Sandilands to dominate. Another matchup to keep an eye on will be Dockers tagger Ryan Crowley up against Adelaide’s explosive midfielder Patrick Dangerfield.

Adelaide have a good hand, but their pocket kings should be beaten by Fremantle’s pocket aces.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win by 39 points or less @ 2.12 (Palmerbet)

 

North Melbourne v Richmond

7:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Richmond

North Melbourne were my top 4 smoky at the start of the year, and although the Kangaroos haven’t taken the competition by storm this year, they still sit in 8^th spot on the ladder and have secured meritorious interstate wins over Sydney, Fremantle and West Coast by the halfway stage of the season. With 10 of their remaining 12 games against teams currently outside the top 8, I expect North Melbourne to climb up the ladder before the end of the campaign. The top 4 is still possible.

It is the opposite at Tigerland as Richmond imploded to another loss last weekend to leave last year’s finalists languishing in a big pack of clubs with a record of 3-7. Finals might still be mathematically possible, but the Tigers have shown nothing to suggest they are going to turn their form around.

Richmond have been forced into at least four changes due to injury, with key quartet Daniel Jackson, Shaun Grigg, Reece Conca and Dylan Grimes all forced onto the sidelines. Given that these two teams have had contrasting experiences during 2014, I’m going to be on the club that is living up to their potential.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to win by 39 points or less @ 2.16 (Palmerbet)

 

Monday 9 June

Melbourne v Collingwood

3:20 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Collingwood

88, 42 and 83. Those are the victory margins by Collingwood over Melbourne in the last three Queen’s Birthday clashes. These teams have been at different ends of the ladder for the last few years and the gulf in class on this day has been as obvious as a ballerina in a mosh pit.

This year might be different though, because new Melbourne coach Paul Roos has instilled a defensive mindset in his troops that has transformed them from easy-beats to tough opponents. To demonstrate this, the Demons have only been beaten by more than 32 points once this season and they return to Melbourne after pushing ladder leaders Port Adelaide right to the line in Alice Springs last week. Despite Melbourne’s improvement, Collingwood will still enter this match as warm favourites due to their great record of six winds from their past seven games, including victories in their last five matches at this venue.

The Magpies have lost reliable ball-winner Steele Sidebottom from their midfield due to suspension, but his absence will be well covered by the return from suspension of an even more prolific midfielder, 2011 Brownlow Medallist Dane Swan. In other selection news, talented young Collingwood ruckman Brodie Grundy is recalled from injury, as is ex-Magpie Chris Dawes, who will play against his old side for the second time.

Melbourne will be up for the fight, but Collingwood look to have more class and should have enough match winners to get the points.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Palmerbet)

 

 

Betting Summary

 

Round by Round Summary

Round	Units Wagered	Net Round Result (Units)	% Profit
1	18.5	13.24	71.6%
2	16.5	1.17	7.1%
3	15.75	-4.63	-29.4%
4	19	4.26	22.4%
5	17.5	-6.30	-36.0%
6	18.5	-3.63	-19.6%
7	20.75	-0.59	-2.9%
8	14.75	7.17	48.6%
9	14	-3.84	-27.4%
10	12.5	-2.38	-19.1%
11	16	-4.67	-29.2%

 

Bet Type Summary