AFL Round 13 Preview and Betting Tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 199.25 units
Units Won = 194.52 units
Profit/Loss = -4.73 units (2.4% loss)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.

 

Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Brad Ebert to kick a goal at anytime in the Sydney v Port Adelaide game @ 1.76

Heath Shaw most disposals in Gr2 of the Brisbane v GWS match @ 5,50

1 unit @ combined odds of 9.68 (Sportsbet)

 

Friday 13 June

Carlton v Hawthorn

7:50 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Carlton v Hawthorn

Hawthorn have dominated this fixture during the past decade. The Hawks have beaten Carlton the last ten times the clubs have met, with the last Blues win coming back in April 2005. The winning run has continued despite Carlton having their chances in more recent meetings, with three of their past five clashes decided by 15 points or less.

The bookies are confident Hawthorn will be able to extend the streak to 11 in a row over Carlton, which would keep the high flying Hawks in second spot on the ladder. The Blues are far less prominent in the league table, languishing down in 12^th place and on track for their worst season since 2007.

Much of Carlton’s woes this year have been attributed to the absence of superstar midfielder Chris Judd who has played just 6 minutes of game time this campaign due to a range of significant injuries. Judd completed a VFL match last week and has been deemed fit to return to the starting line-up this week. His presence in the Carlton midfield should inspire his teammates to build on a positive display against Geelong last week.

While Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson has been sidelined from the coaches box with a back injury, his deputy Brendan Bolton has been infectiously enthusiastic during his first two weeks in the caretaker role. Bolton is most definitely the good cop to Clarkson’s bad cop. Contrast Bolton’s post match press conference from last week to some of Clarkson’s older work.

This is Carlton boss Mick Malthouse’s 700th game as a senior coach at AFL level, although he is a relative newcomer to the Blues in only his second season at the club. Perhaps Malthouse’s biggest failing since taking charge at Carlton is his inability to tighten up their defence, which is usually a hallmark of Malthouse coached sides. So far this year, Carlton have the 4^th worst defensive record for points scored against. Given that Hawthorn have the best points for record, I am on the Hawks to record another comfortable win.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 25 points or more @ 1.58 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Bryce Gibbs most dispsoals in Gr1  @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Saturday 14 June

Richmond v Fremantle

1:45 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Fremantle

In the category of teams that have underperformed against pre-season expectations, Richmond would be a very strong mid-season leader. The Tigers were tipped by most to finish in the top 8, and I thought I was possibly being a touch conservative in my March predictions to have them only in 8th spot. However, at the midway point of the season Richmond have only spluttered to 3-8 and 13th on the ladder, leaving them four wins and percentage outside the top 8.

Fremantle were also performing below expectations until a few weeks ago, but the Dockers have hit form to win three in a row and climb to 6th with a win-loss record of 7-4. Given Freo’s favourable draw over the next few months, I expect them to move into the top 4 by the end of the season.

I think Richmond have made some good moves at selection, bringing in Shaun Hampson for Ben Griffiths in the back-up ruck role, while key defender Dylan Grimes will add some strength to the backline and Aaron Edwards will be a valuable marking target up forward to take the pressure off Jack Riewoldt.  Things are not so good at Fremantle, with the Dockers forced to leave out key position defenders Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson due to injury. It will be worth watching ex-Melbourne forward flanker Colin Sylvia who is debuting for Freo. If Sylvia hits form, then Fremantle could have another dimension during the finals.

With a bit of rain expected in Melbourne on Saturday and the Dockers missing some key defenders, I don’t think Fremantle will be able to run away with this one and Richmond should give them a scare.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win by 39 points or less @ 2.05 (Multiple Sites)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Hayden Ballantyne to kick 3 or more goals @ 3.30 (Sportsbet)

 

Sydney v Port Adelaide

2:10 PM AEST, SCG, Sydney

View a detailed form guide for Sydney v Port Adelaide

This is the undisputed match of the round and it might also be the match of the season so far because the form-lines are as mouth-watering as a cold beer on a warm summer day. Sydney enter the match on a 7 match winning streak, but that run is eclipsed by Port Adelaide’s 8 victories in a row.

Port Adelaide are two games clear on top of the ladder ahead of a group of teams including Sydney, but there is still one question mark on the Power. The concern is that Port haven’t beaten a top 8 team interstate, with their only visit to a potential finalist resulting in a 7 point defeat to North Melbourne back in Round 3. A victory against the Swans in Sydney would complete their résumé ahead of the finals later this year.

Beanpole Sydney forward Kurt Tippett injured his knee during the Swans match last Sunday and will miss the next 3-4 weeks. In his four matches so far this year Tippett had averaged three goals per game, and his absence will be compounded by the knock-on effect it will have on key position teammate Lance Franklin who has averaged 1.5 more goals per game when Tippett has played alongside him this year. So Tippett’s absence is effectively costing the Swans an average of 4.5 goals per game.

Port haven’t done anything wrong so far this season, and with skipper Travis Boak back in the side I think they have the goods to take down a Tippett-less Sydney.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Port Adelaide to win by 39 points or less @ 3.40 (Sportsbet)

 

West Coast v Gold Coast

4:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth

View a detailed form guide for West Coast v Gold Coast

It’s the battle of the Coasts as West host Gold for the 4:40pm Saturday timeslot in Perth. Once upon a time playing the Eagles on their home turf would involve a week long build-up of knee-trembling, but the so called ‘House of Pain’ is now a thing of the past and Patersons Stadium is no longer West Coast’s fortress. Port Adelaide and North Melbourne have already secured the points against the Eagles at the venue this year, while St Kilda (yes St Kilda) pushed them to the wire all the way back in April.

Since bouncing out of the blocks to start the year 3-0, the Eagles have gone 1-7 since and now sit at 4-7 and 3 wins behind their 8th placed visitors. Any faint hopes of a late-season charge to the finals require a win this week.

I have been cautious not to get caught up in Gold Coast’s hype as the young Suns have remained poor against most teams in the league despite a relatively lofty league position. The Suns are 1-4 against the top 12 and 6-0 against the bottom 6. The vagaries of the fixture list are catching up with them and they are beginning to descend the ladder.

I have found more reasons for both teams to lose rather than win. This has made finding a suitable betting option difficult, so I will just place a small wager on either team to win by 15 points or less.

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on either team to win by 15 points or less @ 2.65 (Multiple Sites)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Matthew Rosa most dispsoals in Gr2  @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Adelaide v North Melbourne

7:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide

View a detailed form guide for Adelaide v North Melbourne

If the Sydney v Port Adelaide game earlier in the day, this clash is my backup match of the round. Adelaide have been in the inverse of West Coast this year, recovering from a slow start to work their way into finals contention. The Crows are 5-6 and in 10th position, which is within striking distance of a visiting North Melbourne, who lie only three spots ahead on the ladder but enjoy a 7-4 record. If North win this game, one of the few teams Adelaide are trying to depose in the top 8 will be three wins plus percentage up the road.

North’s interstate record has been the highlight of their season, with the Kangaroos enjoying successes on their travels against Sydney, Fremantle and West Coast. The Kangaroos have been strengthened at the selection table by the inclusions of marking target Robbie Tarrant and livewire small forward Lindsay Thomas as they try for a fourth interstate win of the year. Adelaide are also strengthened, adding experienced flankers Matthew Wright and Brent Reilly, so this should be a cracking match.

North were my big smoky at the start of the year, but I have not trusted them for any of their big interstate wins so far this year. I should have had more faith, so I am going to try and learn from my mistakes and trust them as the underdogs this time.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to win @ 2.01 (Pinnacle)

 

Brisbane Lions v Greater Western Sydney

7:40 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane

View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v GWS

A fortnight ago both these clubs were spiralling from one bad result to another, with Brisbane occupying the bottom rung on the ladder and GWS suffering consecutive 100 point defeats. Things have change dramatically in the past 14 days as the Lions have pinched back to back victories against Carlton and Western Bulldogs, while GWS produced industrious displays to run both Hawthorn and Essendon right to the wire.

GWS have stocked their side with some big guns as co-captain Phil Davis returns for his first game since suffering a serious kidney injury in Round 1, while precociously talented forward Jeremey Cameron is recalled after a one week suspension and former Geelong premiership defender Josh Hunt is recalled to add some steel to the backline. Number 2 draft pick Josh Kelly is another handy inclusion.

I have seen enough for GWS in the past fortnight to know they are a massive chance to win this game. Giants ruckman Shane Mumford should dominate Stefan Martin at the stoppages and give his midfielders first use of the ball. If they can keep their composure in attack, I reckon the Giants win this.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on GWS to win @ 3.35 (Bookmaker)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jonathon Patton to kick 3 or more goals @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Pearce Hanley over 23.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)

 

Sunday 15 June

Geelong v St Kilda

1:10 PM AEST, Simonds Stadium, Geelong

View a detailed form guide for Geelong v St Kilda

This match is unlikely to replicate the fantastic battles fought between these sides from the middle of 2009 through until early 2011. Five games were played between the teams during that time and the winning margin was less than 25 points on each occasion, with four of the matches decided by 12 points or less. Some of the stars of those classic contests will be still be running around this Sunday, but Geelong have been much more successful at maintaining a good list during the subsequent seasons and are still a top 4 contender, while St Kilda sit second last on the ladder and look doomed for a bottom four finish.

Geelong have rested ruckman Hamish McIntosh and young defender Jed Bews, promoting Dawson Simpson to first ruck in McIntosh’s absence. Young St Kilda ruckman Billy Longer is probably not quite at the stage of his career to be able to exploit McIntosh’s absence, but the Saints will most likely be strengthened by the return of experienced players David Armitage and James Gwilt, although both men have only been named on an extended bench and are not yet guaranteed a start.

The weather is going to be a bit showery and blustery down in Geelong for this game, so I am reluctant to take Geelong at the line of over 60 points even though I think they will win comfortably. Perhaps the Saints will improve their defensive pressure after two lacklustre games and that, combined with the weather, will keep this to a low scoring match.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Total Match Sore 182.5 points or less @ 1.91 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Matthew Stokes to score over 107.5 points Super Coach points @ 1.91 (Sportsbet)

 

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

3:20 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

On paper this game looms as a mismatch. Collingwood are in 4th spot on 8-3 and the Western Bulldogs are in 14th spot on 3-8. Furthermore, the Magpies have taken the points the last 6 times they have played the Bulldogs.

Collingwood centre-half forward and back-up ruckman Jesse White is a very important structure player for Collingwood and his return will be welcomed by a Magpies forward line that only managed 8 goals in his absence last week. White’s inclusion is at the expense of fellow forward Tyson Goldsack who is out with a knee injury, but Goldsack’s tackling pressure and versatility will be missed in his absence.

The Bulldogs have been able to recall veteran ball magnet Matthew Boyd, while unfulfilled key forward Liam Jones has been promoted to the extended bench and should be given a chance to take on an inexperienced Collingwood defence that is still without the marshalling presence of Nick Maxwell.

The Doggies might make this a closer contest than a lot of people are expecting, but the Pies should be too strong.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win by 39 points or less @ 2.45 (Sportsbet)

 

Essendon v Melbourne

4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Essendon v Melbourne

The hypocrisy of some media commentators really annoys me. For most of the year everybody has been saying how well Melbourne have done to tighten up down back and reduce the amount of goals they concede. Last week the Demons were involved in a very low-scoring match against Collingwood and despite coming up short, were heavily criticised by most pundits who claimed the Demons were playing unattractive football. Personally, I thought Melbourne played a very smart game and the match was all the more exciting because the margin on the scoreboard was very close until the final few minutes.

Essendon’s battling win over GWS last Saturday night came at a cost with skipper and best player Jobe Watson suffering a serious hip tendon injury that will keep him out for at least the next two months. The midfield looks a bit thin without Watson. Third year player Dyson Heppell has been excellent this year, but has not yet shown he can bring others along with him the way Watson does, and after Heppell there is just Brent Stanton and Davd Zaharakis as good (but not great) midfielders.

Both teams like to control the ball by chip kicks out of defence and through the middle of the ground, so we could be in for another stop-start game, similar to Monday’s match between Melbourne and Collingwood. A low-scoring contest is on the cards, with Melbourne games averaging total scores of just 141 points, which is lower than any other club. Games involving Essendon aren’t high scoring either, averaging 158 points.

This game promises to be tight and low scoring. I am going to back the Bombers to sneak across the line and maintain their winning form.

EDIT – I have just learned that ASADA have issued show-cause notices to 30 Essendon players based on their supplements program that was carried out during 2012. Find out more here. Because of this, this game is now a no-bet for me.

Andy’s Bet: None

 

 

Betting Summary

Round by Round Summary

Round	Units Wagered	Net Round Result (Units)	% Profit
1	18.5	13.24	71.6%
2	16.5	1.17	7.1%
3	15.75	-4.63	-29.4%
4	19	4.26	22.4%
5	17.5	-6.30	-36.0%
6	18.5	-3.63	-19.6%
7	20.75	-0.59	-2.9%
8	14.75	7.17	48.6%
9	14	-3.84	-27.4%
10	12.5	-2.38	-19.1%
11	16	-4.67	-29.2%
12	15.5	-4.53	-29.2%

 

Bet Type Summary

Bet Type	Bets	Net Result	% Profit
2-leg Multi	8	9.30	116%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line	2	3.05	87%
Goals Pick Your Own Line	4	2.85	88%
Team Goals (line)	1	2.55	85%
Supercoach player H2H	3	1.95	28%
Win by 40 points or more	4	1.23	25%
Win by 24 points or less	2	1.19	95%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group	4	1.00	33%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H	6	0.85	11%
Wire to Wire (any other result)	1	0.83	110%
Either Team 15 points or less	1	0.83	165%
25 points or more	1	0.82	82%
16 points or more	1	0.68	68%
Win by 25 points or more	1	0.68	68%
H2H	15	0.59	3%
Supercoach group	3	0.50	20%
Win by 39 points or less	25	0.48	2%
Most Goals	18	0.00	0%
Team Score (Line)	3	-0.24	-6%
Half Time/Full Time	1	-0.50	-100%
Medal Winner	1	-0.50	-100%
Time First Goal	1	-0.50	-100%
Anytime goalscorer	1	-1.00	-100%
Win by 19 points or less	1	-1.00	-100%
Win by 60 points or more	1	-1.00	-100%
Win by 16 points or more	1	-1.50	-100%
Either Team 24 points or less	4	-1.65	-66%
Most Disposals in Group B	10	-1.75	-27%
Second Half Line	5	-1.80	-24%
Player Disposals Line	1	-2.00	-100%
Win Q4	1	-2.00	-100%
Most Disposals in Group A	7	-2.45	-39%
Individual Player Disposals (Line)	2	-3.00	-100%
Line	28	-4.08	-12%
Total Match Score (line)	9	-4.13	-37%
3-leg multi	5	-5.00	-100%