Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 214.25 units
Units Won = 218.45 units
Profit/Loss = +4.20 units (2.0% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Adelaide to win by 25 points or more @ 3.10
Carlton to win by 25 points or more @ 2.25
1 unit @ combined odds of 6.98 (Sportsbet)
Friday 20 June
Richmond v Sydney
7:50 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Sydney
When the fixture makers pencilled in this clash for a prime time Friday night slot they would have been anticipating two top 8 teams locking horns in a tantalising encounter. Unfortunately, Richmond have performed below expectations this season and sit in a lowly 15th position, only above the bottom three teams by percentage. Sydney still remain a major draw card and the Swans are in 3rd place on the ladder, just a win off ladder leading Port Adelaide, who were beaten by the red and whites last week.
That significant win over the Power was Sydney’s 8th in a row and their sluggish start to the year is now a distant memory. The Swans winning form is contrasted by their opponents, with Richmond’s only win since Easter coming against an inexperienced GWS side. The Tigers have bolstered their squad ahead of this match by smartly adding two in-and-under specialists – Reece Conca and Matt Thomas – to combat Sydney’s prowess at the stoppages. The Swans chances have been dented by the loss of very good midfielder Dan Hennebery to an ankle injury.
Despite Hannebery’s injury, and forward Kurt Tippett’s continued absence, the Swans should be too good for the Tigers.
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Sydney to win by 39 points or less @ 2.25 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Trent Cotchin most dispsoals in Gr1 @ 8.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 21 June
Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
1:45 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Port Adelaide are the top of the table and the Western Bulldogs are well down the list in 13th spot but, ironically, the Bulldogs enter this match with winning form and the Power don’t. The Bulldogs secured a magnificent victory over Collingwood last weekend thanks to a splendid four quarter performance, while the Power battled bravely against the Swans in Sydney, although Ken Hinkley’s side ultimately came up a few points short.
The team news slightly favours the Bulldogs, who replace the very good Adam Cooney with the excellent Matthew Boyd, while the Power lose midfielders Hamish Hartlett and Dom Cassisi to injury, although speedster Jared Polec is back.
The Bulldogs strength is their work in close at the stoppages, which was exemplified last week when they won the clearance count 51-34 against the Magpies last Sunday. This brings outside runners like the ridiculously talented teenager Jack Macrae into the game, and the kid hurts the opposition with nearly all of his disposals.
If Port Adelaide can match or beat the Bulldogs in the clearances, then the Power will have too much pace and skill on the outside. This should be best demonstrated in the second half when the game will open up.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Port Adelaide at the second half line (-23.5) @ 1.85 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Angus Monfries most goals @ 14.00 (Sportsbet)
Hawthorn v Collingwood
2:10 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Collingwood
It doesn’t get much better than this pending winter clash to warm the footy soul. Two league heavyweights will do battle at the MCG in the traditional Saturday afternoon timeslot in front of a crowd in excess of 70,000. Hawthorn lie second on the table and are clinging to that position and the prospect of a home Qualifying Final with all their might, while Collingwood’s shock defeat to the Bulldogs last Sunday dropped the Magpies to 6th on the ladder, which means that this game is nearly a must-win for the Pies if they want a finals double chance come September.
Hawthorn have dominated this fixture in recent years, winning 10 of the 13 matches played between the clubs since the beginning of 2007, including all five matches since the start of 2012 by an average of 39 points. A significant part of the Hawks dominance was the output of key forward Lance Franklin, who seemed to enjoy filling his boots against the Magpies. With Franklin now a Swan, the gap between the teams narrows and this Saturday’s contest should be closer.
Hawthorn regain a key forward and backman for this clash, with Jack Gunstan and Brian Lake two marquee inclusions, while Collingwood recall A-grade midfielder Dayne Beams after resting him last week due to a little niggle. These inclusions mean that Hawthorn are now only missing Sam Mitchell, Josh Gibson and Brendan Whitecross from their best 22, while Collingwood are actually the more inconvenienced team as Nick Maxwell, Steele Sidebottom, Ben Reid, Nathan Brown, Alex Fasolo and Tyson Goldsack are all sidelined.
This should be mighty close, but the Hawks have the healthier list, so I am going to side with them.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Liam Shiels most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)
Gold Coast v Geelong
4:40 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast
View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v Geelong
Gold Coast are in the middle of a daunting run of fixtures that has seen them defeated in each of their last three games to lose their place in the top 4. Another reverse this week against Geelong would almost certainly see the Suns fall out of the top 8, with the 9th and 10th placed teams meeting each other on Saturday night. The Cats thrashed St Kilda by 96 points last week, but don’t read too much into that because everyone has been demolishing the Saints recently, although the win was noteworthy because it did lift the Cats back into the top 4.
When Gold Coast plays Geelong everyone looks forward to former Cats star Gary Ablett playing against his former team. At Geelong, Ablett was a dual Premiership player, Brownlow Medallist and number 1 fan-favourite, so it is fascinating to see how the Cats try to curtail him. Cam Guthrie has been a success story this season as a tagger for Geelong and fresh from a big win over St Kilda’s Jack Steven last week, Guthrie will most likely be assigned to Ablett this Saturday. I think he can limit the great man’s effectiveness.
Gold Coast have recalled high rated youngster Jack Martin for his first game since seriously injuring his shoulder early in his debut game in Round 1. Geelong have also made some serious selection news by making 6 changes, most notably the inclusion of elite midfielder Steve Johnson, ruckman Hamish McIntosh and skillful flanker Allen Christensen, while the Cats have lost key defender Harry Taylor to a knee injury.
Even thought the Suns are improving year on year and have closed the gap, Ablett’s former team is still better than his current one.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong at the line (-13.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Steven Motlop to kick 3 or more goals @ 6.80 (Sportsbet)
Essendon v Adelaide
7:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Essendon v Adelaide
Gold Coast are expected to lose to Geelong earlier in the day, so the winner of this match between Essendon and Adelaide will likely finish the round in the top 8. That’s a little glimmer of hope for the Bombers after a week of turmoil following the show-cause notices from ASADA last Thursday and a heartbreaking 1-point loss to Melbourne on Sunday. Adelaide’s position on the ladder may be a true reflection of their form over the whole season so far, but given the Crows started the season 0-3, their recent form has been that of a top 4 contender, with a record of since 6-3 since those early losses and some big wins over top 8 teams Collingwood, Gold Coast and North Melbourne.
Essendon are still without talismanic skipper Jobe Watson and are still struggling to find a consistent source of goals in the forward line, only scoring more than 11 goals once in a game since a big win over Carlton in Round 3. The Bombers have rested veteran flanker Paul Chapman, which is a further negative against their goal threat given ‘Chappy’ has kicked the second most six-pointers of any Essendon player so far this season.
Adelaide’s forward line is functioning much better and has many goal threats. The signs point to an Adelaide win.
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Adelaide to win @ 1.69 (Pinnacle)
Fremantle v Brisbane Lions
7:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Brisbane
The Dockers have improved to 5th on the ladder and are closing in on the top 4 after four straight wins, and with a cushy run of fixtures to come for the next 6 weeks, I think Fremantle are nearly certainties to earn a finals double chance. Their next victim is expected to be Brisbane, who make the longest road trip in the league from the north-east of the country to the south-west.
Brisbane had a great fortnight crossing over from May into June with wins over Carlton and Western Bulldogs, but the run came to an end against GWS last week, extinguishing the positivity that was beginning to slowly build within the Lions camp. The positive vibe was also damaged by another nasty head injury to injury-prone veteran Jonathan Brown, who is still the only player that can be relied upon to take a contested mark inside forward 50.
Fremantle are a settled, balanced line-up, while the Lions are still doing some major shuffles to their pack, with Brown out due to his concussion and rising star nominee James Aish rested.
Percentage is going to be crucial to determining ladder positions at the pointy end of the season, so the Dockers won’t let their foot off the accelerator pedal at any stage of this game and should record a monster victory.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win by 60 points or more @ 2.10 (Centrebet)
Sunday 22 June
Greater Western Sydney v Carlton
1:10 PM AEST, Spotless Stadium, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for GWS v Carlton
The early Sunday fare is a very intriguing match-up between a young GWS team in decent form with nothing to lose and a Carlton side that has already fallen to defeats against Melbourne and Brisbane, which crippled the Blues season and left finals action a mile away. Despite putting a negative spin on the Blues season, Mick Malthouse’s men have performed admirably against Geelong and Hawthorn during the past fortnight, even though they were unable able to sneak a win that their performances perhaps deserved.
Carlton looked a much better team last week with the inclusion of veteran midfielder Chris Judd. It appears as though Judd still has his trademark burst of acceleration away from a stoppage and this skill should stand out against a Giants team that is reasonably good at winning the clearances.
Key position players Michael Jamison and Lachie Henderson are important inclusions for Carlton, and if the Blues can match the intensity they have showed against Geelong and Hawthorn in the past fortnight, then a much needed win will be recorded.
The Blues are generally very effective at limiting the output of the opposition’s key midfielders, so I also think GWS midfielder Callan Ward is likely to be kept under his Super Coach points line.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Carlton at the line (-16.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Callan Ward to score under 116.5 points Super Coach points @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
St Kilda v West Coast
3:20 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v West Coast
It has been a horror three week stretch for the Saints since their bye. Alan Richardson’s squad is in rebuild mode so expectations are modest, but even still, the Saints have been thumped by 86, 70 and 96 points in their past three outings. That is not good enough. A home match against a West Coast team that is 11th on the ladder, with only two wins from their past nine matches, represents a chance for St Kilda to put in a better showing and earn back some respect.
The two games that West Coast have won in the past two months have been greatly assisted by the goals of key forward Josh Kennedy. The Eagles sharpshooter booted 11 goals against GWS in Round 8 and backed that up with 7 majors against Gold Coast last week. The Saints key defensive posts are a bit shaky, so Kennedy could threaten for another big haul of goals this Sunday.
The Saints should get more out of key players Nick Riewoldt and Jack Steven in this game after both were very quiet against Geelong. The problem for the Saints is their bottom 5-10 players, who might be exposed by the Eagles experience and better depth. I am counting on the Saints to put in an improved showing in this match to keep the margin under 40 points.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on West Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.56 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Leigh Montagna over 26.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Palmerbet)
Melbourne v North Melbourne
4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v North Melbourne
Melbourne pinched a victory over Essendon in this timeslot last Sunday. The Demons trailed by as much as 33 points early in the second half before staging a daring fightback, with the win lifting them to four wins for the year and 14th spot on the ladder. North Melbourne were very disappointing in their match in Adelaide, barely firing a shot and losing to the Crows by 36 points, which continued their Jekyll and Hyde nature this season.
The fact that Melbourne have managed four wins this season is remarkable considering their opposition have had 2, 7, 8 and 9 more scoring shots in those four games that the Demons have won. In those games Melbourne’s opposition has kicked a combined 35.66, which is an appalling conversion rate.
North Melbourne recalled Robbie Tarrant last week and the Kangaroos forward line looked too slow with the cumbersome trio of Tarrant, Drew Petrie and Aaron Black all playing together. The three big men have all been named again for this week, so I don’t think the Roos will be able to beat Melbourne by a big margin.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to win by 39 points or less @ 2.05 (Multiple Sites)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
2-leg Multi |
9 |
8.30 |
92% |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
6 |
7.50 |
158% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
2 |
3.05 |
87% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
28% |
|
H2H |
17 |
1.94 |
8% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
1 |
1.82 |
91% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
2 |
1.26 |
63% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
4 |
1.23 |
25% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
2 |
1.19 |
95% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
4 |
1.00 |
33% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
6 |
0.85 |
11% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
1 |
0.825 |
1.1 |
|
25 points or more |
1 |
0.82 |
82% |
|
16 points or more |
1 |
0.68 |
68% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20% |
|
Most Goals |
18 |
0.00 |
0% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
3 |
-0.24 |
-6% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
28 |
-0.47 |
-2% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
3 |
-1.26 |
-25% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
1 |
-1.50 |
-100% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
4 |
-1.65 |
-66% |
|
Second Half Line |
5 |
-1.80 |
-24% |
|
Player Disposals Line |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
11 |
-2.25 |
-32% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
8 |
-2.95 |
-44% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
10 |
-3.22 |
-26% |
|
Line |
28 |
-4.08 |
-12% |
|
3-leg multi |
5 |
-5.00 |
-100% |