Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 228.75 units
Units Won = 234.17 units
Profit/Loss = +5.42 units (2.4% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Cyril Rioli to kick 3 or more goals in the Hawthorn v Gold Coast game @ 3.50
Sydney to win by 43 points or more @ 1.92
1 unit @ combined odds of 6.72 (Sportsbet)
Friday 27 June
Geelong v Essendon
7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Geelong v Essendon
Geelong’s travelling roadshow of past stars continues this week with ex-Cat Paul Chapman lining up against his former teammates for the first time since being discarded by the club where he was an instrumental figure in three Premierships. Also worth adding to that list is former Geelong coaching great Mark Thompson who will coach against the Cats for the first time as well. Chapman and Thompson vs Geelong follows last weekend’s showdown between Gary Ablett – another former Cats great – and his previous employers, with Ablett and his up and coming Gold Coast squad taking the points and demoting Geelong from the top 4. The Cats now lie in 5th, while Chapman and Thompson’s Essendon sit 9th, but the Bombers can fly into the top 8 with a win in this match.
Essendon surprised me with a blistering first quarter last week against Adelaide to open up a 5 goal lead, before grimly holding on to win by 9 points as the Crows mounted a second half comeback. Geelong’s number one ruckman Hamish McIntosh has been sidelined by an ankle injury and will miss this match, which has allowed the Bombers to leave out their back-up ruckman Tom Bellchambers in favour of including an extra runner. In a further blow to the Cats, in-form ball winner Matthew Stokes is also out with an ankle injury.
Geelong haven’t been in great form recently, going 4-4 since opening their season with a five game winning streak. The ASADA investigation is a continued unknown for Essendon, so I am only going to make a small bet on this game, but I think there is value with the Bombers who are well equipped to deal with the threat posed by Geelong spearhead Tom Hawkins. Also note that I am taking Essendon as part of the Sportsbet promotion that will see you get your money back if your team leads at the end of any change and loses the game.
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Essendon to win @ 3.25 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Brent Stanton most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 28 June
Hawthorn v Gold Coast
1:45 PM AEST, Aurora Stadium, Launceston
View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Gold Coast
When these teams met near the start of the season, Hawthorn hammered Gold Coast by 99 points, but the Suns responded well and won their next five games to entrench themselves in the top 8. That lofty ladder position was in jeopardy last week as the Suns entertained Geelong after three consecutive losses, but an inspired 6 goal performance by Harley Bennell propelled Gold Coast to a landmark first win over Geelong.
Hawthorn also put together a tidy performance last Saturday afternoon as they outscored Collingwood in every quarter en-route to a reasonably comfortable 29 point win. That win kept the Hawks in second spot on the ladder and with a shrinking injury list they are looking quite menacing as we near the business end of the season.
The Hawks are nearly unbeatable at Aurora Stadium, enjoying a 16-1 winning record at their home away from home since the midway point of 2010. Because of this I think they can manage a decent win against Gold Coast. I also plan to put a small outlay on Hawthorn forward Jarryd Roughead to kick the most goals. Roughead has managed this feat both times Hawthorn have played at this ground during 2014.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 25 points or more @ 1.62 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jarryd Roughead most goals @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
St Kilda v Richmond
2:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Richmond
Three clubs languish at the foot of the ladder with only three wins for the season and two of them will take to the Etihad Stadium turf this Saturday afternoon attempting to pick up some points and regain some pride. The result of this basement battle between bottom placed St Kilda and third from bottom Richmond will allow the winner some respite from the wooden spoon race.
St Kilda put in a much better showing last Sunday against West Coast, limiting the margin of defeat to 33 points, which was the first time since Round 9 they had been beaten by less than 70 points. Richmond, meanwhile, have put themselves in winning positions for the last three weeks against top 8 teams, however the Tigers have lapsed for 15-20 minutes each time, with dire consequences.
Prolific midfielder Leigh Montagna is back for the Saints after illness kept him out of last week’s match, while the Tigers have lost underrated marking target Aaron Edwards.
Richmond’s recent good performances indicate they are well placed to comfortably beat a struggling St Kilda team.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Richmond to win by 40 points or more @ 2.20 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jack Newnes most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 10.00 (Sportsbet)
Fremantle v West Coast
4:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v West Coast
The ‘Western Derby’ is the first of four rivalry matches to be played over this spicy weekend. Fremantle hold the edge in this fixture with 21 wins to West Coast’s 18, which represents a considerable comeback considering the more established Eagles won the first 9 clashes. The most recent derby took place in early May and the Dockers triumphed by 19 points to notch their fourth consecutive win over the Eagles.
Fremantle enter this match on a five game winning run that has propelled them into 4th spot on the ladder, while West Coast beat St Kilda last week to climb to 10th place and remain in the hunt for a finals position. That win over the Saints was typical of the Eagles form this year as they have had little trouble beating the bottom teams, but great difficulty against the better sides. West Coast are 1-7 against teams in the top 12 and 5-0 against teams outside the top 12. Those numbers alone suggest a Fremantle win this weekend.
The Dockers are around the $1.25 mark in head to head betting, so there is no value there. The line is set at approximately 25.5 points and given the Dockers have won by at least 32 points in 7 of their 9 wins this year, I am going to take them at the line.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle at the line (-25.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Matt Rosa most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
Brisbane Lions v North Melbourne
7:40 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane
View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v North Melbourne
A fortnight ago Brisbane seemed be on the road to recovery, winning two matches in a row to climb off the bottom of the ladder, but the past 14 days have not been kind as veteran forward and leading goal kicker Jonathan Brown was concussed during a 45 point loss to GWS, with the head knock prompting Brown to retire based on medical advice. Then, with Brown out of the side, the Lions failed to register a single goal in the first half of their match against Fremantle last week, ultimately losing by 83 points.
North Melbourne could be about to inflict some further damage on Brisbane this week. The Kangaroos bounced back into form with a 45 point win over Melbourne that was noteworthy because it is the second biggest defeat handed out to Melbourne all season.
These teams met just six weeks ago and North Melbourne won by a whopping 87 points. The Lions were struck down by the flu that week and were missing a few key players, but I can’t see them being able to reverse the margin by enough to prevent a Kangaroos win by more than 40 points.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on North Melbourne to win by 40 points or more @ 2.12 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Aaron Black to kick 3 or more goals @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Sydney v Greater Western Sydney
7:40 PM AEST, SCG, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for Sydney v GWS
The ‘Battle of the Bridge’ is the second big rivalry game of the weekend. The Giants won this fixture in Round 1, securing their first win over big brother. Big brother will be angry to exact revenge and regain dominance, so I’m tipping the Swans could win big this time around. That loss by the Swans was characteristic of their slow start to the season that saw them drop three of their first four games. Things began to click after that first month and they haven’t tasted defeat since, entering this clash on a 9-match winning run.
The young Giants have beaten Brisbane and Carlton on the past two weekends, which represents the first time they have recorded back to back wins in their three year history. Despite their obvious good form, I am inclined to think the Giants are due for a downer because they have played really well for the last month (dating back to close losses against Hawthorn and Essendon).
Sydney’s tall forward Kurt Tippett returns from injury to reprise his double act with Lance Franklin, while Jeremy Cameron is back in for the Giants and his forward line partnership with Jon Patton will be just as exciting to watch given Cameron and Patton are set be as good as Franklin and Tippett during the next few years.
Sydney should pay GWS back for that shock loss in Round 1.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 40 points or more @ 1.79 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Nick Malceski to score under 103.5 points Super Coach points @ 1.70 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 29 June
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
1:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Western Bulldogs v Melbourne
There are lots of formline similarities between these sides over the past 6 weeks, with both teams heading into this match with winning records of 2-4 during that stretch and suffered heavy defeats last weekend following great wins against higher ranked opposition the week before. Both teams have winning records of 4-9 for the season, but the Doggies ladder position is slightly higher due to a better percentage.
The Bulldogs beat the Demons by 16 points after a tight tussle when these sides met earlier this season in Round 8. That match was played at the MCG, a ground Melbourne have played 9 of their 13 matches at this season. This game is being played at Etihad Stadium and the Dees haven’t played under the roof since a loss to bottom side St Kilda in Round 1. The Doggies have already played eight games at Etihad this campaign and even though their winning record isn’t very good (2-6), an 8 point win here over Collingwood a fortnight ago shows they are improving.
The Bulldogs are without skipper Ryan Griffen due to a back injury and susbtitute specialist Daniel Giansiracusa misses because of suspension, while the Demons have lost in-form tagger and former Bulldog Daniel Cross to a leg injury.
I think this one is going to be pretty tight and I can’t pick a winner so will take either team to win by 24 points or less.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on either team to win by 24 points or less @ 1.62 (Centrebet)
Adelaide v Port Adelaide
4:10 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Adelaide v Port Adelaide
A late Sunday afternoon ‘Showdown’ between city rivals Adelaide and Port Adelaide seems like the perfect viewing option if you are feeling like a lazy lie down on the couch before another week at work. The Power lead the overall head to head record 20-16 over the Crows, which is boosted by wins in the past three showdowns.
Adelaide Oval has been a vocal place to watch football all season, however things are likely to go up another notch when fans of both teams from the city are packed in together. The atmosphere will be amazing.
Adelaide have rested veteran defender Ben Rutten, perhaps indicating they are worried about the speed of Port Adelaide’s forward line. The Power have played to their strength and included hard runner and classy ball user Hamish Hartlett.
Adelaide are in better form than when Port blasted them out of the water by 55 points earlier in the season, so I think this will be closer and I’ll take the Power to win by 39 points or less.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Port Adelaide to win by 39 points or less @ 2.15 (Sportsbet)
Collingwood v Carlton
7:10 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Carlton
Despite all the rivalries played earlier in the weekend, this one carries the most tradition and is probably the fiercest of the lot. Collingwood and Carlton hate each other and have done so for a great number of years. The rivalry has endured despite the teams not meeting in a final since the 1980’s, although the recent defection to the Blues of former Magpie premiership coach Mick Malthouse before the 2013 season and the subsequent free-agency signing of former Pies fan-favourite Dale Thomas before the start of this campaign have amped the rivalry up another notch.
Collingwood boss Nathan Buckley has taken the points on all three occasions against his former mentor. The odds are suggesting that Buckley will extend that sequence over Malthouse after the Blues let slip a golden opportunity to post a victory against GWS last week. That result was not in keeping with Carlton’s recent from that had seen them run Hawthorn and Geelong very close during the previous fortnight.
If the Blues can repeat the performances they put together against the Hawks and Cats, then the Magpies are there for the taking with an injury list that sees three very important defenders sidelined. With former skipper Chris Judd back to full fitness and current skipper Marc Murphy back in the team after missing last week due to a tight hamstring, Carlton are now only without top-line ruckman Matthew Kreuzer, plus perhaps fringe players like David Ellard and Tom Bell from their best side.
Carlton’s last ten matches have all been decided by 39 points or less, so I doubt this match is going to bust open and will tip Collingwood for a narrow win.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win by 39 points or less @ 2.15 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
7 |
10.40 |
198% |
|
2-leg Multi |
10 |
7.30 |
73% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
2 |
3.05 |
87% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
32 |
1.98 |
7% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
28% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
2 |
1.26 |
63% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
4 |
1.23 |
25% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
2 |
1.19 |
95% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
4 |
1.00 |
33% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
6 |
0.85 |
11% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
1 |
0.83 |
110% |
|
25 points or more |
1 |
0.82 |
82% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
2 |
0.82 |
27% |
|
16 points or more |
1 |
0.68 |
68% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5% |
|
H2H |
18 |
-0.06 |
0% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
3 |
-0.24 |
-6% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100% |
|
Most Goals |
19 |
-0.50 |
-3% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100% |
|
Second Half Line |
6 |
-0.53 |
-6% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
3 |
-1.26 |
-0.252 |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
1 |
-1.50 |
-100% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
4 |
-1.65 |
-66% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
12 |
-1.75 |
-23% |
|
Player Disposals Line |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
10 |
-3.22 |
-26% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
9 |
-3.45 |
-48% |
|
3-leg multi |
5 |
-5.00 |
-100% |
|
Line |
30 |
-6.08 |
-16% |