Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 259.00 units
Units Won = 256.41 units
Profit/Loss = -2.59 units (1.0% loss)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Jack Darling to kick 3 or more goals in the Brisbane v West Coast game @ 3.00
Lance Franklin most goals in the Sydney v Carlton game @ 2.75
1 unit @ combined odds of 8.25 (Sportsbet)
Friday 11 July
Adelaide v Hawthorn
7:50 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Adelaide v Hawthorn
The Friday night spotlight will shine on Adelaide and Hawthorn as these teams clash in a critically important fixture. The match takes on such great significance because this season is about to head down the homestretch and the Hawks top 4 place is in jeopardy, while the Crows are one win from climbing into the top 8 for the first time this season.
Ahead of this match it might be worth chucking a sneaky couple of dollars on Adelaide to make the top 8 at the end of the year. Adelaide follow this game with a match at the MCG against Collingwood, but the Crows then close the season with five games against teams currently in the bottom 8.
Key Hawthorn defender Brian Lake copped a 4-week suspension from the tribunal following a nasty wrestling incident with North Melbourne’s Drew Petrie last week. Lake joins fellow big-bodied defender Josh Gibson on the sidelines and some of the Hawks undersized backmen could be exposed by Adelaide’s array of marking talent in the forward line.
Adelaide’s last four matches at the Adelaide Oval have been against teams in the top 8. The Crows have won each of those games by more than 20 points, so I am pretty happy to take them as underdogs in the head to head market here. Note that Sportsbet are running a promotion on the head to head markets of all AFL games this round. If your head to head bet loses by 20 points or less, your bet will be refunded.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Adelaide to win @ 2.25 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Matthew Wright most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 12 July
Melbourne v Geelong
1:45 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Geelong
This match-up has been one of the most lopsided in modern times as Geelong have beaten Melbourne nine games in a row, with the seven most recent clashes decided in the Cats favour by more than 40 points. Geelong thrashing Melbourne has been about as reliable as a Swiss watch.
The Cats sit in 5th position and have won four of their past 5 games, but Chris Scott’s team is actually in a bit of a flat spot and has been lucky to scrape through for three recent wins against much lower ranked opposition. Melbourne have also experienced a dip in form during the past month, with three of their four biggest losses for the season coming since the start of June, beginning with their 33 point defeat to Collingwood on Queen’s Birthday and also including a 41 point loss to North Melbourne and last week’s 63 point reverse against Fremantle.
The Cats have added a bit of toughness to their midfield by recalling James Kelly and I think they should be too strong for a Melbourne team that struggles to score goals.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong to win by 25 points or more @ 1.51 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Steve Johnson to have over 26.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Steven Motlop to kick 3 or more goals @ 5.20 (Sportsbet)
North Melbourne v St Kilda
2:10 PM AEST, Blundstone Arena, Hobart
View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v St Kilda
Predicting North Melbourne’s matches has been particularly troubling for me all season. I have tipped them to win with a 44% success rate and tipped them to lose with only a 17% success rate, so it might be best not to read too much into this particular preview. You have been warned!
The Kangaroos made me look foolish again last week, upsetting the formbook with a rousing third quarter burst to open up a match-winning lead against Hawthorn. St Kilda are North Melbourne’s opponents this week and the Saints would love to have some of the Kangaroos inconsistency problems because Alan Richardson’s side has been consistently poor for the past couple of months. Last Sunday’s 85 point loss against Carlton was St Kilda’s 10th loss in a row, which is made even worse when you consider they have lost each of their past nine games by more than 30 points.
St Kilda is likely to produce a better effort this week after they laid only 52 tackles against Carlton. That tackle tally was very low considering the Blues dominated possession in that game, however it should be boosted by the return of veteran Saints star Lenny Hayes for this game, while ruckman Tom Hickey is back after missing a few games through injury and smart defender Sam Fisher will play his first game since round 10 last year after battling persistent injuries.
Despite the expected increase in intensity from St Kilda, this still looks like being a percentage booster for North Melbourne in front of their Tasmanian fans.
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on North Melbourne at the line (-58.5) @ 1.92 (Sportsbet)
Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast
4:40 PM AEST, Cazaly’s Stadium, Cairns
View a detailed form guide for Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast
This Saturday’s match between Western Bulldogs and Gold Coast is perhaps the most intriguing of the season. Gold Coast skipper Gary Ablett suffered a season-ending shoulder injury during the club’s heroic 5 point victory over Collingwood last week. That victory was particularly meritorious given the Suns had no fit players to rotate from the bench during a tense last quarter. The injury to Ablett was the main talking point during the week, but now it has been confirmed that he will miss the rest of the campaign the focus turns to how his young and talented teammates will handle the club’s push for an inaugural finals qualification.
The Bulldogs generally opt to tag two opposition players each week, so it will be interesting to see who coach Brendan McCartney decides to target with Ablett out of the picture. Gold Coast midfielders David Swallow, Dion Prestia and Jaeger O’Meara need to be prepared to receive greater opposition attention.
This promises to be a tight match. Only a handful of games have been played at this venue in Cairns during the past few years and the matches have been consistently low scoring. Of the three games played at this venue involving the Gold Coast during the past three years, the total match score has been 155, 178 and 97. Given the Bulldogs are a low-scoring team, the line of 175.5 for the total match score looks a bit high to me.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Total Match Score under 175.5 @ 1.91 (Bet365)
Brisbane v West Coast
7:40 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane
View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v West Coast
Brisbane (17th) host West Coast (11th) in this Saturday night game that doesn’t have me overly excited, unfortunately. Brisbane’s main aim for the rest of the season will be to continue getting games and experience into their younger players, with the odd win here or there a bonus. Too many wins wouldn’t be good for the Lions though, considering that better draft picks and an easier fixture for next season are given to the teams at the bottom of this year’s ladder.
After last week’s loss to Sydney, West Coast are now 3 wins outside the top 8, but even though finals seem like a longshot, the Eagles still have two winnable games in the next fortnight and follow that up with a run of three matches against teams they will be competing with for one of the last available places in the top 8. If West Coast get on a run, they can still play a part in September.
Brisbane have been dealt a huge blow ahead of this match as standout midfielder Tom Rockliff has been suspended for one match. I expect the Lions to really struggle in the middle without the influential Rockliff and West Coast should win this match comfortably even though their leading goal scorer Josh Kennedy has also been suspended.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on West Coast at the line (-12.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Pearce Hanley to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Stefan Martin @ 1.95 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Mark Hutchings most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)
Sydney v Carlton
7:40 PM AEST, SCG, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for Sydney v Carlton
This game between table topping Sydney and struggling Carlton is likely to be where I will devote most of my Saturday night attention. Sydney outlasted West Coast in wet conditions over in Perth last Sunday afternoon to win their 11th match in a row, while Carlton thrashed St Kilda by 85 points on the same afternoon to snap a 5 game losing streak.
Despite languishing in 13th place on the ladder, Carlton have actually been a pretty valiant opponent in most games this season and are yet to taste defeat by more than 34 points in five matches against top 8 opposition. With former skipper Chris Judd back to something nearing full power in the midfield to support the classy pairing of Marc Murphy and Bryce Gibbs, suddenly the Blues look like they have the firepower to cause some damage in that part of the ground.
Sydney have no real weaknesses in their team and they possess plenty of match winning forwards, while the Blues are without dangerous small forward Troy Menzel due to injury. I think the Swans will take the points, but I’m tipping the Blues might make this more of a contest than most people expect.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 39 points or less @ 2.40 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Lance Franklin most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 13 July
Richmond v Port Adelaide
1:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Richmond v Port Adelaide
Two wins on the trot has boosted both Richmond’s ladder position and their morale. The Tigers have risen from 16th to 12th in the past fortnight after wins over St Kilda and Brisbane, but it should be noted that those two teams occupy the two bottom rungs on the ladder. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, have lost three of their past four matches to surrender top spot and slip to 3rd.
The five wins Richmond have had this season have all come against teams in the bottom 6 and the Tigers are 0-7 against teams in the top 8. I think the bookies are putting too much emphasis on Richmond’s past two wins and can’t believe Port Adelaide’s head to head price is out to over $1.50.
As mentioned previously, Sportsbet are running a promotion on the head to head markets of all AFL games this round. If your head to head bet loses by 20 points or less, your bet will be refunded. This special, combined with Port Adelaide’s generous head to head price means that I will be loading up on the Power for this game.
Andy’s Bet: 3 units on Port Adelaide to win @ 1.52 (Sportsbet)
Essendon v Collingwood
3:20 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Essendon v Collingwood
Essendon held off a fast-finishing Port Adelaide last Saturday night to record a very important 2 point victory that keeps the Bombers within a win of the top 8. The Bombers are actually within a win of the top 6, considering that this week’s opponents, Collingwood (6th), are only a win and slight poercentage above Essendon. Collingwood let slip a great chance to beat an injury-hit Gold Coast last week when wingman Clinton Young dropped a simple chest mark 30m from goal in the final minutes, when it appeared certain he would give the Magpies the lead.
Essendon’s 2 point win over Port Adelaide last week was the 7th game they have been involved in this season that has been decided by less than 10 points. Collingwood’s matches have generally not been as close, but their battles have still been keenly fought with 13 of the past 14 Magpie games resulting in margins of less than 39 points. A thrashing of bottom placed St Kilda the only exception.
The team news for this match heavily favours Collingwood as gun Essendon midfielder Brendan Goddard misses through suspension, joining skipper Jobe Watson on the sidelines. With Watson and Goddard out, Pies tagger Brent Macaffer is likely to play a negating role on Dons midfielder Dyson Heppell. Macaffer has been very successful in these roles this season and if he can reduce Heppell’s impact, the Bombers are really going to lack a playmaking ability in the midfield.
Collingwood are also boosted by the return of experienced duo Nick Maxwell and Luke Ball, so I am all over the Pies to bounce back after a disappointing loss last week.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win by 39 points or less @ 2.15 (Multiple Sites)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Steele Sidebottom to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Dyson Heppell @ 1.85 (Sportsbet)
Fremantle v Greater Western Sydney
4:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v GWS
The final game of the round is likely to be a fizzer as Fremantle (4th), entering the game on a 7 game winning streak, entertain GWS (15th) at Perth’s Patersons Stadium. The Dockers will be looking for another big win to try and boost their percentage ahead of the other teams in the top 4, which could be crucial when determining who gets to host a Qualifying Final later in the year. The Giants had a relatively impressive patch of form for most of June, but have reverted to their struggling ways in the past fortnight, suffering a 46 point defeat to Sydney and a 68 point thrashing to Adelaide.
Fremantle’s power forward Matthew Pavlich returns and could be in for a big bag of goals against the team with the second most points conceded all year. GWS have mixed things up at selection, forced into leaving out talented onballers Adam Treloar and Stephen Coniglio, the Giants have also dropped Kristian Jaksch and Sam Frost for poor form. Tagger Jacob Townsend returns for the franchise club, while number 1 draft pick Tom Boyd has been named on an extended bench and could play.
Fremantle are probably going to win big, but I have been pretty ordinary at line bets this year, so I will instead make a speculative play at one of the super margin markets.
Andy’s Bet: 0.25 units on Fremantle to win by to win by 70-79 points @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on David Mundy over 101.5 AFL Fantasy Dream Team points @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
8 |
9.65 |
160.8% |
|
2-leg Multi |
11 |
6.30 |
57.3% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
2 |
3.05 |
87.0% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
4 |
2.70 |
67.5% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
8 |
2.13 |
42.5% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165.0% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
2 |
1.19 |
95.0% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
37 |
1.18 |
3.3% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
1 |
0.83 |
110.0% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
8 |
0.72 |
7.6% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
4 |
0.64 |
12.8% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
7 |
0.10 |
1.1% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
H2H |
19 |
-0.06 |
-0.2% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Second Half Line |
6 |
-0.53 |
-5.8% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Goals |
20 |
-1.00 |
-6.3% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
15 |
-1.75 |
-19.4% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
5 |
-2.62 |
-33.8% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
10 |
-3.22 |
-26.2% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
10 |
-3.95 |
-51.0% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
4 |
-4.82 |
-74.2% |
|
3-leg multi |
6 |
-6.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Line |
32 |
-6.16 |
-15.8% |