Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 277.00 units
Units Won = 273.90 units
Profit/Loss = -3.10 units (1.1% loss)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Kade Simpson to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Ed Curnow @ 1.88
Michael Barlow to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Nat Fyfe @ 1.90
1 unit @ combined odds of 3.57 (Sportsbet)
Friday 18 July
Carlton v North Melbourne
7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Carlton v North Melbourne
At 9pm in Sydney last Saturday night, Hurricane Lance struck Carlton with a violent force. Of course, the Lance we are referring to is Sydney power forward Lance Franklin. Hurricane Lance made contact early in the third quarter against the Blues by kicking his first goal of the night. It was the first of five in a devastating half hour whirlwind display that obliterated Carlton and inspired Sydney to storm to a 70 point three quarter time lead after the Swans only held a narrow 7 point lead at the main break.
Despite being blown away by the Category 5 Hurricane Lance last week, Carlton have actually been playing pretty good football during the past month and a bit. And the Blues have been especially proficient at Etihad Stadium, winning 4 from 6 under the roof this season, which is a massive improvement on their 1 from 10 record elsewhere.
It is hard to be critical of North Melbourne’s form in the lead-up to this match after they dispatched Hawthorn a fortnight ago at this venue, then followed that up with a clinical display against St Kilda last Saturday down in Tasmania. The big knock on North Melbourne this season has been their inconsistency, with bright patches of form never lasting more than a couple of weeks.
After being blown away by Buddy, the Blues will welcome playing under the protection of the roof this week. I think they are a good outside chance to snatch a win here, and the Sportsbet promotion of a refund if your team loses by 20 points or less makes a bet on Carlton too good for me to refuse.
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Carlton to win @ 4.25 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Marc Murphy to have over 26.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Chris Judd most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.25 units on Dale Thomas to kick 3 or more goals @ 16.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 19 July
St Kilda v Fremantle
4:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for St Kilda v Fremantle
For St Kilda, last weekend was a different opponent but the same result. For the last 10 weeks, the Saints have lost by more than 30 points each time, with the margin of those defeats averaging nearly 70 points. Alan Richardson’s men return to home turf this week, but even Etihad Stadium has not been a sanctuary, with the Saints losing by more than 80 points in two of their last three games under the roof.
Fremantle get quite a lot of stick in the media about their defensive style of play that is perceived to be detrimental to the viewing spectacle. I think a lot of the criticism is unfair. Beyond the ageing Matthew Pavlich and little goalsneak Hayden Ballantyne (who is suspended for this game), the Dockers don’t have too many players I would class as gifted forwards, however Dockers coach Ross Lyon has managed to craft his team into being the 5th most potent attacking force this season in terms of points scored. This hasn’t come at the expense of their defensive disciplines as Freo are still the number 1 ranked side for least points conceded.
The Dockers are on a blinding run of form, winning 8 games in a row to surge to second spot on the ladder. Given less than 3% separates Fremantle from Hawthorn on the ladder, the Dockers will be going all out for a big win to maintain their advantage over the Hawks.
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Fremantle at the line (-56.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Lenny Hayes over 92.5 AFL Fantasy Dream Team points @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Greater Western Sydney v Geelong
7:40 PM AEST, Spotless Stadium, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for GWS v Geelong
Geelong has been a hard team to read over recent weeks. Following a 100 point loss to Sydney, the Cats have played six games that were predominantly against teams outside the top 8. Of those matches, there were a couple of huge wins over St Kilda and Melbourne, but also some very narrow triumphs over Carlton, Essedon and Western Bulldogs, as well as a 40 point loss to Gold Coast. With that in mind, it is difficult to know how much the Cats will win by against Greater Western Sydney.
I think it’s fairly safe to assume the Cats will win. The Giants have slumped during the past three weeks, losing by more than 40 points each time. So, rather than looking at Geelong’s form for guidance, the clue appears to be available from what GWS have been doing.
Prolific young GWS midfielder Adam Treloar is a valuable addition to the Giants squad, as is young key position forward Jonathon Patton. Patton has shown a lot of promise this season and has kicked two or more goals in each of the Giants four victories. Geelong have also been boosted at selection, with damaging midfielder Matthew Stokes (who I think it still underrated) returning from injury.
I think the first half will be tight, but the Cats might bust this one open after the main break.
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on GWS at the first half line (+18.5) @ 1.95 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong at the second half line (-21.5) @ 1.95 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Callan Ward to have over 26.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Steve Johnson most dispsoals in Gr1 @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 20 July
Port Adelaide v Melbourne
1:10 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Melbourne
Due to the vagaries of modern fixture lists, we have good recent data for these teams as they played just seven weeks ago, which was a keenly fought game that Port Adelaide won by 20 points in Alice Springs. At that stage of the season, Port were two games plus percentage clear on top of the ladder with only half the campaign to go. Most pundits were getting caught up in the excitement, predicting that a top two finish was a formality and with the benefit of home finals the Power were certainties to make the Grand Final. Since that point though, it seems like the Power have been unplugged and are running low on batteries because they have lost four of their past 5 games to slip all the way down to fifth on the ladder.
As bad as Port Adelaide’s last month has been, Melbourne’s recent form has been worse. The Demons have lost four on the spin and three of those defeats rank amongst their four biggest losses of the season. For all the early to mid season optimism under new coach Paul Roos, Melbourne is the lowest scoring team of the year and only sits above Brisbane and St Kilda on the ladder.
The Demons look like just the sort of opponent that could allow the Power to get back into the groove.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Port Adelaide total match points over 103.5 @ 1.90 (Bet365)
Western Bulldogs v Essendon
4:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Western Bulldogs v Essendon
Two of the competition’s form teams will front up for the Sunday twilight game this week. It took a while to happen, but the Doggies are finally making me feel like I wasn’t an idiot for being so upbeat about their talented youngsters pre-season. During the past five weeks, the Dogs have beaten and outplayed Collingwood and Gold Coast, as well as pinching a narrow win over Melbourne. Most of their talented youngsters have all bobbed up to do amazing things at various stages, but perhaps the best two have been teenagers. Firstly, Marcus Bontempelli manufactured this goal at the death to beat Melbourne, and then Jack Macrae amassed 43 disposals and kicked 2 goals against Gold Coast last Saturday. Teenagers don’t get 43 possessions at senior level. That doesn’t happen!
Essendon have also been motoring along nicely, with their success particularly noteworthy as skipper Jobe Watson has been sidelined for the past month with a hip injury, rebounding defender Michael Hibberd has missed the past two games with an ankle injury and gun utility player Brendan Goddard was suspended last week.
The Bombers only beat the Bulldogs by 8 points when these teams met earlier this season. So, even though Goddard and Hibberd are back for the Dons, Doggies skipper Ryan Griffen returns for the red, white and blue and I think the young pups at the kennel can spring an upset. Again, the Sportsbet promotion is a factor in this decision.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Western Bulldogs to win @ 3.20 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
9 |
9.15 |
140.8% |
|
2-leg Multi |
12 |
5.30 |
44.2% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
10 |
3.38 |
56.3% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
5 |
3.21 |
64.2% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
3 |
2.05 |
45.4% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
2 |
1.19 |
95.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
1 |
0.83 |
110.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
9 |
0.80 |
6.8% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
8 |
0.72 |
7.6% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
4 |
0.64 |
12.8% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
H2H |
21 |
-0.06 |
-0.2% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Second Half Line |
6 |
-0.53 |
-5.8% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
39 |
-0.82 |
-2.2% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Goals |
20 |
-1.00 |
-6.3% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
6 |
-1.97 |
-23.2% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
16 |
-2.25 |
-23.7% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
11 |
-2.31 |
-17.4% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
10 |
-3.95 |
-51.0% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
4 |
-4.82 |
-74.2% |
|
3-leg multi |
6 |
-6.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Line |
34 |
-7.20 |
-17.5% |