Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 277.00 units
Units Won = 273.90 units
Profit/Loss = -3.10 units (1.1% loss)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Lance Franklin most goals in the Hawthorn v Sydney game @ 4.00
Scott Pendlebury to score more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Dayne Beams @ 1.88
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit @ combined odds of 7.52 (Sportsbet)
Friday 25 July
West Coast v Richmond
8:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for West Coast v Richmond
These teams are very evenly matched as they enter this game. West Coast and Richmond were tipped to be likely finalists this year, but both have performed below expectations and the Eagles are perched in 11th spot on the ladder, immediately above the 12th placed Tigers.
Despite being two games outside the top 8, West Coast are still masters of their own destiny to a large extent. In their remaining six fixtures, the Eagles play the four teams immediately above them on the ladder (7th-10th) as well as Richmond (12th) and Melbourne (16th). Win five of those games and the Eagles will land in the top 8. It’s a big task though.
Both West Coast and Richmond have been found out against any sort of decent opposition this year. West Coast are 6-0 against teams in the bottom 5, but a horrible 1-9 against clubs ranked 13th or better. Based on those numbers the Eagles can have no complaints about their current ladder position. Richmond fare just as badly in the ‘flat-track bully’ stakes, enjoying a 5-1 record against the bottom six and a 1-9 record against the top twelve.
Historically, the norm in these type of match-ups that appear to be fairly even, has been to side with the home team. The Eagles in Perth is not the sure thing it used to be, but it’s really all I have to go on! The Sportsebt money back promo if your team loses by 20 points or less is still on this weekend, and it has sucked me in for all four games!
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on West Coast to win @ 1.56 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.25 units on Mark Hutchings most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 10.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 26 July
Brisbane Lions v Gold Coast
4:40 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane
View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v Gold Coast
This is a massive game. Not only will it involve a state rivalry (the Q-clash), but it will also be the most important match in Gold Coast’s four year history. The Suns are currently 9th on the ladder and need a win in this match to keep in the hunt for a maiden finals berth. The good news for Gold Coast is that four of their remaining six fixtures are against sides below them on the ladder. If they are good enough, they will be playing finals.
The negative for Gold Coast is the season-ending injury to captain and standout midfielder Gary Ablett. In their first full game after Ablett’s injury, the Suns were comprehensively beaten by the 14th placed Western Bulldogs. Ablett also won the best on ground medal when the Suns and Lions met earlier this season, underlining his importance to the franchise club.
Brisbane have really surprised me with their resilience in the three games they have played since former skipper and champion centre-half forward Jonathan Brown announced his retirement. In that three week stretch the Lions have beaten North Melbourne and suffered close losses to Richmond and West Coast.
With prolific ball winning midfielder Tom Rockliff back for Brisbane, I can’t see the Lions getting blown away, so will take them with the extra security of the Sportsbet promo.
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Brisbane to win @ 2.80 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Pearce Hanley to have over 24.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Ryan Harwood most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Daniel Merrett most goals @ 12.00 (Sportsbet)
Hawthorn v Sydney
7:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Sydney
This Saturday night showdown is the most anticipated game of the season so far. Sydney top the table and have won their past 12 matches, while Hawthorn are the reigning Premiers and sit 3rd on the ladder. To add an extra layer of excitement, Lance Franklin was a former glamour forward at the Hawks, but is now in sensational form as a Swan.
When these teams met in Round 8 in Sydney, the undermanned Hawks put up a very brave fight before being outgunned in the final quarter as the Swans won by 19 points. Hawthorn midfield generals Sam Mitchell and Luke Hodge weren’t on the field for that battle, so their availability will make a big difference for the brown and golds in this return bout.
Key Hawthorn defender Josh Gibson returns from a two month injury layoff for the Hawks, but his inclusion is countered by Sydney, who have recalled their beanpole full forward Kurt Tippett.
Sydney have only played at the MCG twice this season and were less than impressive both times. Beating lowly Melbourne by 31 points earlier in the year, before stuttering to an 11 point win here over Richmond four weeks ago. Hawthorn play this ground better than anyone (except arguably Geelong), so I think they might sneak across the line as underdogs.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win @ 2.10 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Shaun Burgoyne most dispsoals in Gr2 @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 27 July
Collingwood v Adelaide
4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Adelaide
Following on from Saturday’s important matches, Sunday will bring this crunch game between Collingwood (8th) and Adelaide (10th). The Magpies had a firm grip on a finals position until mid-June, but that grip has loosened considerably as they have lost four of their past 5 games. Adelaide have gradually recovered from a woeful start to the year and are within sight of the top 8, although a loss in this game would be a big blow, leaving the Crows two wins outside the finals places with only five rounds to play.
Collingwood have been battling injuries to key players all season, so it came as no surprise when 2011 Brownlow Medallist Dane Swan was ruled out for the next month with a range of persistent niggling injuries. Grunt midfielder Luke Ball will also miss this game through injury, leaving the Magpies exposed in the middle of the park. And given the Pies haven’t played for a fortnight, this will also be the first game the club have played since the retirement of former skipper Nick Maxwell.
One glimmer of hope for the Magpies is the recall of utility player Ben Reid for his first game of the campaign after a serious calf injury derailed two-thirds of his season. Reid can play as a key forward or defender, and although he has been named in the forward line, I think Reid should play in the backline because the Pies lack experience and leadership qualities in that area of the ground after Maxwell’s retirement.
Adelaide’s tall forward line got the better of Collingwood when these teams played earlier in the season. Josh Jenkins was the matchwinner with 4 goals in a low-scoring game that the Crows won by 23 points. That win injected some hope into Adelaide’s stuttering campaign and was the beginning of a 4-game winning streak at home against sides in the top 8. The Crows travelling form has not been as good though, and apart from a routine win over GWS in Round 16, Adelaide have not won on the road since Round 6.
Given Collingwood’s absentees, I have no idea why Adelaide aren’t strong favourites.
Andy’s Bet: 2.5 units on Adelaide to win @ 2.08 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
9 |
9.15 |
140.8% |
|
2-leg Multi |
12 |
5.30 |
44.2% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
10 |
3.38 |
56.3% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
5 |
3.21 |
64.2% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
3 |
2.05 |
45.4% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
2 |
1.19 |
95.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
1 |
0.83 |
110.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
9 |
0.80 |
6.8% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
8 |
0.72 |
7.6% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
4 |
0.64 |
12.8% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
H2H |
21 |
-0.06 |
-0.2% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Second Half Line |
6 |
-0.53 |
-5.8% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
39 |
-0.82 |
-2.2% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Goals |
20 |
-1.00 |
-6.3% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
6 |
-1.97 |
-23.2% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
16 |
-2.25 |
-23.7% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
11 |
-2.31 |
-17.4% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
10 |
-3.95 |
-51.0% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
4 |
-4.82 |
-74.2% |
|
3-leg multi |
6 |
-6.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Line |
34 |
-7.20 |
-17.5% |