Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 299.25 units
Units Won = 299.94 units
Profit/Loss = +0.69 units (0.2% profit)
Thursday 31 July
Fremantle v Carlton
8:10 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Carlton
Thursday night footy returns this week for the first time since May, and thankfully it will be the last time we see football in this timeslot during 2014. Despite the mickey-mouse timeslot, the game actually has a lot riding on it for Fremantle, because the Dockers currently cling to a top 4 spot over Port Adelaide by just 0.8%, while a strong finish to the season could even net the purple haze a top 2 position.
Each match is significant for Fremantle at the moment, so it was a big shock to see them produce such a hideous performance and suffer a big loss against bottom club St Kilda last round. The Dockers were expected to win that game win by about 60 points, but ended up losing by nearly that amount.
Carlton have been out of the finals race for some time now after the Blues suffered a horror opening to the season when they lost four games in a row. Since that time Mick Malthouse’s mob have gone 6-7 and generally been quite competitive, which was best demonstrated by an impressive win over 6th placed North Melbourne last time out.
Carlton have actually enjoyed the trip across to Perth in recent years, winning 6 of the 9 games they have played their against Fremantle or West Coast since the beginning of 2008. And of the three games the Blues lost, the margin of defeat was never greater than 10 points. So perhaps Fremantle’s home ground advantage won’t be as significant as it normally is. Unfortunately for the Blues, I think the previous positive statistic is balanced out by another statistic that shows Carlton are 1-9 when they have played away from Etihad Stadium this year.
Fremantle big-hitters Aaron Sandilands, Stephen Hill and Hayden Ballantyne are all back after injury or suspension prevented them from taking the field last round, and their inclusions this week give me confidence that Fremantle can grab an important victory. There is no value for the Dockers in the head to head market, so I am going to take them to win by 25 points or more. Surely Freo have enough incentive to do that given how important percentage is to them.
For a more exotic bet, I think there is value to be found in Sportsbet’s Most Possessions Gr1 market. Fremantle’s Nat Fyfe is the favourite in that market but Carlton have plenty of defensive midfielders, so I think Fyfe will cop a hard tag that should limit his ouput. Similarly, Fremantle stopper Ryan Crowley will probably get the shutdown job on Blues midfielder Marc Murphy. Because of those match-ups, I am leaning towards Dockers ‘magnet man’ Michael Barlow in this market.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win by 25 points or more @ 1.60 (Sportingbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Michael Barlow most dispsoals in Gr1 @ 6.50 (Sportsbet)