Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 299.25 units
Units Won = 299.94 units
Profit/Loss = +0.69 units (0.2% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Lance Franklin to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Paul Chapman @ 1.70
Toby Greene to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Devon Smith @ 1.75
Steele Sidebottom to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Dayne Beams @ 2.00
1 unit @ combined odds of 5.95 (Sportsbet)
Friday 1 August
Sydney v Essendon
7:50 PM AEST, SCG, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for Sydney v Essendon
Sydney’s 12-game winning streak came to an end last week as the Swans were pipped by 10 points against Hawthorn in the match of the season so far. Sydney still top the ladder, but last week’s loss now means the Swans are only a win and minor percentage ahead of 5th placed Port Adelaide. There is no room for error at the top!
Essendon are in good form at the moment and should provide stern opposition for Sydney this Friday night. The Bombers have gone 6-2 since their mid-season bye, securing important victories over Adelaide, Port Adelaide and Collingwood during that time. That sequence is especially meritorious when you consider that skipper Jobe Watson has been absent for the past 6 weeks.
Sydney thumped Essendon by 50 points at Etihad Stadium when these teams met earlier this year. Swans forward duo Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett were too good for the Bomber defenders that night, booting 8 goals between. Franklin has been tormenting Essendon for years and averages five goals per game against the red and blacks during his career, which is an astonishing record given how modern day football is played.
Essendon have been up for a while and are due for an emotional downer, which could be disastrous as any drop-off in intensity by the Bombers would expose them to the Swans forward line firepower.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 25 points or more @ 1.82 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Lance Franklin most goals @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 2 August
Adelaide v West Coast
1:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Adelaide v West Coast
Adelaide’s victory over Collingwood in the final match last weekend lifted the Crows into the top 8 for the first time this season. With the teams immediately ahead of the Crows – Essendon and North Melbourne – both underdogs this weekend, it is not inconceivable that a win in this match could lift Adelaide up to 6th spot. Giddy heights indeed!
The Crows don’t have any obvious weaknesses and are solid right across the park, and with plenty of match-winners in the forward half of the ground, coach Brenton Sanderson’s team might just peak in time to be the big finals surprise packet.
West Coast have been one of the biggest disappointments of the season (rivalling Carlton and Richmond for that honour). The Eagles topped the ladder after the first three weeks, but since that point they have been the equal third worst performed side, ahead of only GWS and St Kilda.
As I have been mentioning on a weekly basis, West Coast have an abysmal record against all but the worst teams. Last Friday night’s loss to Richmond left the Eagles 2014 record against clubs above the bottom five at 1-11.
After a shaky beginning, Adelaide have found their feet at Adelaide Oval and I expect the Crows will win this game convincingly to cement their spot in the top 8.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Adelaide to win by 25 points or more @ 1.64 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Eddie Betts most goals @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Richard Douglas most disposals in Gr2 @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)
Richmond v Greater Western Sydney
4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Richmond v GWS
When these teams last met, Richmond were victorious by the biggest margin any team has won by all season. The Tigers blitzed the Giants by 113 points that afternoon, with Tigers spearhead Jack Riewoldt booting 11 goals and responding very positively after a troubled week in the media.
Richmond’s past month has been the best of their season and the Tigers enter this clash in confident mood after posting four wins on the trot to lift the club to 12th on the ladder. GWS, meanwhile, are still very unpredictable and fluctuate dramatically from week to week. Last round the Giants pushed Geelong all the way and only lost by 7 points, but the fortnight before that saw Leon Cameron’s team lose twice by more than 10 goals.
Because of their inconsistencies, I am limiting my betting on the head to head and margin markets for GWS games and concentrating on some of the more exotic markets. For this game my bet will be on prolific Richmond ball-getter Anthony Miles to get the most disposals in the second-tier group. Miles should give a good showing because he has amassed over 20 touches in each of his last six games, and four of those times going over 27 possessions.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Anthony Miles most disposals in Gr2 @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
Gold Coast v St Kilda
7:40 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast
View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v St Kilda
Gold Coast were pushing for a win that would have put them into the top 8 last weekend, but the Suns lost by plenty against a team in the bottom four. Bottom placed St Kilda played the weekend before and pulled off the upset of the season by smashing Fremantle, who were playing for top spot. It is difficult to know how much to read into those surprising results.
Before that shock win over Fremantle, St Kilda had lost 10 matches in a row by more than 30 points. I’m willing to believe they haven’t suddenly turned into a top team overnight and expect they will still struggle for the rest of the season. However, the improvement of Rhys Stanley as a marking target alongside Nick Riewoldt in the Saints forward line does the give the bottom placed club something to look forward to for the remaining rounds.
Gold Coast’s formline from last round could be more permanent though. It was the Suns second loss in a row to a bottom five team since skipper Gary Ablett suffered a season-ending injury. The loss to Brisbane last week meant that Gold Coast are now 0-7 in games that Ablett has missed since the club entered the league in 2011.
I am willing to give the Gold Coast one more chance. The reason is that this is first time they have returned to home soil since Ablett was injured. The last three games when they travelled with Ablett in the side were also lost, so perhaps a return to home base will result in a return to form.
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Gold Coast to win by 39 points or less @ 2.15 (Multiple sites)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Shane Savage most disposals in Gr2 @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)
North Melbourne v Geelong
7:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Geelong
On Saturday night you might think you have had too much to drink and are seeing double when the television cameras pan to the coaching boxes and you keep seeing two of the same bloke. But what you’ll be seeing will have nothing to do with the amount of liquor you have consumed, it will actually be twin brothers coaching opposite teams. Despite Geelong always enjoying a superior ladder position since the twins started coaching against each other, games between the Cats and the Kangaroos have generally been very close, with the last four meetings decided by 20 points or less.
Two separate mini-leagues have taken shape in the top half of the ladder. Geelong is currently in 3rd spot on the table and are in the first mini-league that includes the sides from 1st to 5th on the ladder, with all of those clubs on 12-13 wins for the season. The second cluster of sides starts with North Melbourne and includes the teams on 9-10 wins, which covers ladder positions from 6th to 10th.
North Melbourne have almost become so inconsistent they can now actually be considered consistent. They consistently win as the underdogs and lose when favourites. The Kangaroos enjoy a 4-1 record against teams in the top five, so they look to be great value at a price of nearly $3 to win by 39 points or less.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to win by 39 points or less @ 2.95 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Steve Johnson most disposals in Gr1 @ 5.50 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Steven Motlop most disposals in Gr2 @ 7.50 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 3 August
Melbourne v Brisbane
1:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v Brisbane
Both of these teams had a Round 10 bye and have played eight matches since. In that time Brisbane have gone 4-4 to rise from the bottom of the ladder up to 14th, while Melbourne have slumped to 1-7 and have fallen to 17th and are now genuine wooden spoon contenders. The Demons downturn in form has coincided with a dreadfully difficult run of fixtures that has seen the red and blues play seven of their past eight games against top 9 teams.
Brisbane’s wins have generally been secured thanks to big contributions from the talented trio of midfielder Tom Rockliff, wingman Pearce Hanley and dynamic half forward flanker Dayne Zorko. I think this plays into Melbourne’s hands because the Dees are generally quite adept at limiting the output from opposition prime movers, and I don’t think Brisbane can win unless at least two of Rockliff, Hanley and Zorko have excellent games.
I think Melbourne will turn this into a low-scoring arm-wrestle and that should enable them to get a rare victory. The sportsbet promotion that refunds head to head bets that lose by 20 points or less continues this weekend, and that provides an extra buffer for the Demons here, so I will increase my stake to a larger than normal bet.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Melbourne to win @ 1.72 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Total Match Score under 162.5 points @ 1.91 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Tom Rockliff under 30.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
3:20 PM AEST, Aurora Stadium, Launceston
View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs
Hawthorn are still the team to beat in 2014. That was my take-home message after last Saturday night’s showdown between the top two teams on the ladder. Sydney looked to have Hawthorn covered when the Swans opened up a 23 point lead early in the third quarter, but the Hawks raised their game to reduce the gap and showed more poise to win the match in a tense last quarter.
This game is being played in Tasmania, which is Hawthorn’s home away from home. The Hawks enjoy an amazing 17-1 record at Aurora Stadium since the midway point of season 2010, and they have won all three games played at the venue by more than 40 points so far this year.
The Bulldogs have been an improved outfit during the past six weeks, but are still going to be out of their depth against a Hawthorn team that is slowly getting back to full strength and entering Premiership mode.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 40 points or more @ 1.94 (Multiple Sites)
Collingwood v Port Adelaide
4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Port Adelaide
After hitting the front early in the final term against Adelaide last week, Collingwood faded to another defeat and slipped out of the top 8 for the first time since Round 4. That loss left the Magpies with a dreadful record of 1-5 over the past 6 rounds, which is worse than their opponents this week, who are also out of form. Port Adelaide visit the MCG after only managing a 2-4 record since the midway point of the season when the Power were tearaway league leaders. Because of their poor recent form, a win in this game is vital for both clubs.
The fact that Collingwood conceded five goals in a 12 minute period during the last quarter against Adelaide will have been noted by Port Adelaide during their preparations for this game. Even though they haven’t demonstrated it much recently, Port are a fantastic running side and fancy themselves to dominate their opposition when most games start opening up in the second half. This is exactly what happened when these teams met at this venue in an Elimination Final last year.
After a few performances that lacked intensity, the Magpies showed great endeavour against the Crows and lost simply because they lacked the class of their opponents. If Port Adelaide match Collingwood’s intensity, then I think the Power will also be able to outclass a youthful Magpies team.
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Port Adelaide to win @ 1.68 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Scott Pendlebury over 28.5 disposals in the Collingwood v Port Adelaide game @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
|
18 |
22.25 |
3.79 |
17.0% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
10 |
8.90 |
131.9% |
|
H2H |
27 |
7.53 |
20.1% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
10 |
3.38 |
56.3% |
|
2-leg Multi |
14 |
3.30 |
23.6% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
5 |
3.21 |
64.2% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
4 |
2.92 |
53.0% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
2 |
1.19 |
95.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
1 |
0.83 |
110.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
9 |
0.80 |
6.8% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
8 |
0.72 |
7.6% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
First Half line |
1 |
0.48 |
95.0% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
9 |
-0.36 |
-2.9% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
39 |
-0.82 |
-2.2% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
5 |
-0.86 |
-13.2% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
20 |
-1.25 |
-10.9% |
|
Most Goals |
21 |
-1.50 |
-9.2% |
|
Second Half Line |
7 |
-1.53 |
-15.3% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
11 |
-2.31 |
-17.4% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
11 |
-4.45 |
-53.9% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
4 |
-4.82 |
-74.2% |
|
3-leg multi |
6 |
-6.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Line |
35 |
-9.20 |
-21.4% |