Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 335.50 units
Units Won = 335.26 units
Profit/Loss = -0.24 units (0.1% loss)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Lance Franklin to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Nick Riewoldt @ 1.72
Brendan Goddard to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Brent Stanton @ 1.75
Brad Crouch to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Ivan Maric @ 1.80
1 unit @ combined odds of 5.41 (Sportsbet)
Friday 15 August
Carlton v Geelong
7:50 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Carlton v Geelong
Much to the approval of Parks and Recreation character Ron Swanson, Round 21 of the AFL season contains five courses, beginning with this Friday night entrée between a much-improved Carlton and an always impressive Geelong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8GyyKMoh5gA
Despite their lowly 13th place on the ladder, the Blues enter this match in good form after three impressive displays netted comfortable wins over North Melbourne and Gold Coast either side of narrow loss to Fremantle in Perth. Geelong have been in even better touch, with last week’s gritty victory over the Dockers bringing the Cats winning streak to 6 in a row.
I think I might start calling Geelong the ‘Icemen’ thanks to their remarkable record in close games this year. The 2 point win over Fremantle last Saturday night was the 9th time this season the Cats have been involved a match decided by 20 points or less. The blue and white hoops have been victorious in all 9 of those games.
If Geelong are the ‘Icemen’, Carlton surely must be the ‘Etihad Specialists’. The Blues smashed Gold Coast last week to improve their Etihad Stadium record for the season to a rather impressive 6-2, while they are a dreadful 1-10 elsewhere. Lucky for them this game is at Etihad!
These stats suggest the Etihad Specialists will play well at their preferred venue, but if things get close, the Iceman will be strong favourites to close the game out just like they did when these teams met at this venue in June.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Geelong to win by 39 points or less @ 2.25 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Joel Selwood under 108.5 AFL Fantasy Dream Team points @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Bryce Gibbs most disposals in Gr1 @ 7.50 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 16 August
Sydney v St Kilda
1:45 PM AEST, SCG, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for Sydney v St Kilda
The second course of the weekend takes place on Saturday afternoon and begins with this low-key battle between Sydney and St Kilda. I expect most football diners will opt for the Gold Coast v Port Adelaide dish, but this game still contains one key ingredient; If Sydney can manage a big win they will leapfrog Hawthorn and jump to the top of the ladder on percentage.
Sydney have won 14 of their past 15 games, but still managed to sneak gun midfielder Dan Hannebery back from injury last week without much fanfare. Hannebery is one of the best midfielders in the game and has a proven ability to play well on the big stage, and his addition to an already dominant team should be terrifying for the rest of the league.
Poor St Kilda coach Alan Richardson will probably feel like he is coaching with both hands tied behind his back this weekend because the Saints playing list is so inferior to where the Swans are at. However, I feel like Richardson is taking the club on the right path and in 5 years St Kilda will be in a much better position for pumping games into the younger players right now.
Saints fans would be advised to have a back-up plan this Saturday afternoon because things could be getting pretty ugly by half time.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney at the line (-61.5) @ 1.91 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 3 units on Lance Franklin to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Nick Riewoldt @ 1.72 (Sportsbet)
Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
2:10 PM AEST, Metricon Stadium, Gold Coast
View a detailed form guide for Gold Coast v Port Adelaide
This match-up between 10th placed Gold Coast and 5th placed Port Adelaide is very important for both clubs. Because of their dodgy percentage, the Suns need to win their last three matches to have a chance of playing finals for the first time. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, are still an outside chance at snaring the final spot in the top 4. If the Power can keep winning, then their final round match against Fremantle in Perth will almost certainly be a battle for 4th spot and the last remaining double chance in the finals.
These clubs have really deteriorated during the past two months after barnstorming starts to the season. If I am to follow the culinary theme of the previews for this round, both these clubs are like foods with best before dates of 22-Jun-2014. Since that time Gold Coast have gone 2-4 and Port Adelaide have slumped to a 1-5 record.
The Suns are a much better team at Metricon Stadium, so should receive a boost from playing at their home ground, but the Power played some much improved football last week even though they lost to Sydney. Those little glimmers that I saw from Port Adelaide last Saturday night are enough to persuade me to place a small wager on the Power this Saturday.
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Port Adelaide to win by 39 points or less @ 2.10 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Dion Prestia most disposals in Gr1 @ 6.50 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Angus Monfries to kick 3 or more goals @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Robbie Gray most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 3.50 (Sportsbet)
Essendon v West Coast
4:40 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Essendon v West Coast
This tasty Saturday twilight clash between Essendon (8th) and West Coast (11th) fills the gap between the Saturday afternoon course and the Saturday night feast. The Bombers push to the finals has stalled in the past fortnight as the red and blacks have suffered defeats to Sydney and Richmond. Those results have placed Essendon’s finals position in jeopardy and Mark Thompson’s men will fall out of the top 8 if they lose this match.
West Coast’s recent form has been the inverse of Essendon, with the Eagles winning their past two games to move within striking distance of the top 8. Those last two victories by West Coast were particularly crucial given they were secured against Adelaide and Collingwood, which are two other teams fighting for the last few spots in the top 8.
I think Essendon match up well against West Coast. The Eagles two main strengths are dominant rucking duo Nic Naitanui and Dean Cox, and a potent forward line spearheaded by Josh Kennedy and Jack Darling. Essendon have very capable tall defenders in Cale Hooker and Michael Hurley, while Paddy Ryder should be an adequate match for Naitanui and Cox.
Perhaps the decisive factor in this match will be the return of skipper Jobe Watson to the Essendon line-up after a lengthy layoff due to a hip-flexor injury. Watson’s return should help Brendan Goddard and David Zaharakis to win the midfield duel and ensure the Dons forwards get enough ball-supply to kick a winning score.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Essendon to win by 39 points or less @ 2.25 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on David Zaharakis over 24.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Adelaide v Richmond
7:40 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Adelaide v Richmond
The third course of the dinner takes place on Saturday night and must be referred to as the main course. Two pivotal matches will be played concurrently, and at 10:30pm on Saturday night, the puzzle in the lower part of the top 8 will be much clearer. If Adelaide win this match, they are firm favourites to make the finals given their excellent percentage and likely victory over St Kilda on the final day of the season. An Adelaide win would also put an end to Richmond’s late season charge to the finals. The Tigers need to win all of their last three matches and still rely on results elsewhere.
Richmond played excellent football to outlast Essendon in a high-quality game at the MCG last Friday night. I caught the first half live at the ground before I had to rush off to a prior commitment and was very impressed with the Tigers man on man set up and quick ball use to exploit the space in their attacking fifty.
Adelaide thrashed Brisbane by 105 points last week, which had the dual function of claiming the 4 points for a win and improving the Crows percentage to the best of the teams from 7th-12th in the race for the final spots in the top 8.
This game should be tight, low-scoring and go right to the wire and I expect the raucous home crowd to spur the Adelaide players to a very important win.
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Adelaide to win by 39 points or less @ 2.15 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Trent Cotchin most disposals in Gr1 @ 5.50 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Total Match Score under 180.5 points @ 1.91 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Brad Crouch to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Sam Jacobs @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Collingwood v Brisbane Lions
7:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Collingwood v Brisbane
After last Sunday’s big loss to West Coast in Perth knocked Collingwood out of the top 8, the Magpies will be drinking from the last chance saloon this Saturday night, knowing that only a win will keep their faint finals hopes flickering. Unless a few other results go their way, the Pies will have to win their remaining three games to finish the season in the top 8 and that is a very difficult task because Nathan Buckley’s men face current ladder leaders Hawthorn in the final round.
Brisbane were smacked by 108 points against Adelaide in their last outing. That result came from right out of the blue because the Lions had been in quite good form prior to the debacle against the Crows. Despite that setback, Brisbane’s second half of the season has been encouraging and the Lions are a sneaky chance to upset Collingwood this weekend. In my opinion, the Magpies biggest deficiency is their lack of leg-speed and this has often been exploited in the last two years by fleet-footed opponents. This would seem to play into the hands of the Lions, whose biggest assest is the speed of players like Pearce Hanley, Dayne Zorko and Joshua Green.
Even though I think Brisbane’s pace will hurt Collingwood, the Magpies have too much on the line to let this one slip. The return of champion midfielder Dane Swan from a foot injury should confirm a Pies victory and comes just in time to keep their season alive.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Collingwood to win by 39 points or less @ 2.40 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Steele Sidebottom over 108.5 AFL Fantasy Dream Team points @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Ben Reid most goals @ 8.00 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 17 August
North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
1:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs
North Melbourne managed a big win over GWS last week to remain in 6th position on the ladder. That victory was important for the Kangaroos because if they can keep in 6th spot they will host an Elimination Final, but if they slip to 7th or 8th, they risk playing a knockout final in Adelaide against Port Adelaide or Adelaide. This match against the 14th placed Western Bulldogs is one the Kangaroos should win, and are expected to win, but the Bulldogs have already produced upset victories over Richmond and Collingwood at this venue in 2014. The Roos must not take them lightly.
North have been boosted at selection by the return of Daniel Wells from a foot injury that has kept the silky smooth midfielder sidelined for three months. With Wells back, the Kangaroos have a very deep midfield brigade and should match or beat the Bulldogs in that area of the park, which would be decisive considering the midfield is generally the Doggies strongest area of the ground.
These teams have met three times during the past 24 months and the Kangaroos have won each time by 54, 54 and 39 points. The line of -20.5 looks very tempting for the blue and whites.
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on North Melbourne at the line (-20.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)
Melbourne v Greater Western Sydney
3:20 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Melbourne v GWS
Unless St Kilda can manufacture a very unlikely win during the last three rounds, this match is unlikely to have any bearing on the battle for the wooden spoon and should instead decide which team finishes 16th and which team finishes 17th. The form of both sides has been pretty horrible during the past month and a half, with Melbourne on a 7 match losing streak and GWS on a 6 game winless run.
There is no selection news to whet the appetite of either fanbase as former Melbourne skipper Jack Grimes is the only player of any note to earn a recall. A look at the injury lists of the two teams reveals the Demons are only missing midfielder Jack Trengove from their top-line brigade, while the Giants are without key goal-kicker Jeremy Cameron and talented midfield trio Stephen Coniglio, Tom Scully and Lachie Whitfield.
Melbourne are closer to full strength and playing on their home ground. If they can’t win this game then their season will be considered a big failure.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Melbourne to win @ 1.52 (Sportsbet)
Fremantle v Hawthorn
4:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Hawthorn
The fifth and final course is, of course, dessert! Fittingly, the best meal of this footballing banquet has been saved to last as a delicious Grand Final replay will be served, with 4th placed Fremantle hosting table topping Hawthorn. The Dockers kissed goodbye to their hopes of hosting a Qualifying Final after losing to Geelong last week, so now Ross Lyon’s team will be hoping to pick up two wins in their last three matches to secure a top 4 spot and double chance in the finals. The Hawks cruised past Melbourne last Saturday to keep top spot on the ladder, but I don’t think Hawthorn coach Alastair Clarkson will mind if his team finishes first or second because both of those rankings earn equal privileges in the finals.
The team news for this game is significant as Fremantle have lost defensive pillar Luke McPharlin to a calf injury, meaning back-up defender Alex Silvagni gets a chance to press his case for a finals berth. In better news for the Dockers, livewire small forward Michael Walters is fit again after a serious ankle injury and is expected to play his first game since his team’s Round 3 loss to the Hawks. Hawthorn have also made some important changes as key defender and last year’s Norm Smith medallist Brian Lake is recalled after a four-match suspension, while mid-sized forward Jack Gunstan also returns after a quicker than expected recovery from a knee injury. The returns of Lake and Gunston are offset by the suspension of leading goal-kicker Jarryd Roughead.
I think Fremantle discovered some of their best football in the last quarter against Geelong last week and could hit Hawthorn early in this match. The Hawks are a great team though, and will bounce back at some stage. Any other result in the ‘wire to wire’ market looks like the best bet for what I expect to be a see-sawing contest.
Bon appétit.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Any Other Result in the Wire to Wire market @ 2.00 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
|
18 |
22.25 |
3.79 |
17.0% |
|
19 |
17.5 |
-3.65 |
-20.9% |
|
20 |
18.75 |
2.72 |
14.5% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
12 |
7.40 |
89.7% |
|
H2H |
30 |
6.75 |
15.9% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
12 |
5.88 |
83.9% |
|
2-leg Multi |
15 |
5.80 |
38.7% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
4 |
2.92 |
53.0% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
9 |
1.66 |
15.8% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
9 |
0.80 |
6.8% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
First Half line |
1 |
0.48 |
95.0% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
8 |
0.21 |
2.6% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
3 |
0.19 |
8.3% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
25 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
2 |
-0.18 |
-10.0% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
3-leg multi |
7 |
-0.51 |
-7.3% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
5 |
-0.86 |
-13.2% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Most Goals |
24 |
-1.25 |
-7.0% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
44 |
-1.46 |
-3.5% |
|
Second Half Line |
7 |
-1.53 |
-15.3% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
13 |
-2.90 |
-18.4% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
12 |
-3.36 |
-21.7% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
5 |
-3.92 |
-49.0% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
14 |
-4.70 |
-48.2% |
|
Line |
36 |
-12.20 |
-26.5% |