Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 360.00 units
Units Won = 365.99 units
Profit/Loss = +5.99 units (1.7% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Allen Christensen most disposals in Gr2 of Hawthorn v Geelong game @ 6.50
Josh Kennedy most goals in West Coast v Melbourne game @ 3.00
1 unit @ combined odds of 19.50 (Sportsbet)
Friday 22 August
Port Adelaide v Carlton
7:50 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Carlton
Friday night footy makes its way to Adelaide this week for an intriguing match-up between Port Adelaide (5th) and Carlton (13th). Port have put the gear stick in reverse during the second half of the season, dropping 4 places on the ladder since the middle of June. However, if the Power can win this game, then their last round clash against Fremantle will be a battle for 4th spot and a double chance in the finals. Plenty of incentive for Ken Hinkley’s mob then. From the navy blue perspective, Carlton’s early season woes may have left the Blues with only pride to play for during the rest of the campaign, but the lads from Royal Parade have won back a lot of respect with some impressive performances in recent weeks, particularly during the Friday night timeslot.
The most recent meeting between these teams in Adelaide came during the final round clash at Football Park last year. The match was an absolute beauty and Carlton came from the clouds to snatch a one point win and sneak through the back door into the finals.
No such comeback occurred when Port Adelaide scored a comfortable 33 point win over Carlton in Round 1 of this season at Etihad Stadium. That was one of the few times the Blues have been beaten at Etihad Stadium this campaign, with Carlton’s record under the roof standing at a healthy 6-3. Carlton have been awful away from Etihad though, languishing to a disastrous 1-10 record at all other venues.
Given the Blues have such a poor record on their travels, it is unlikely they will be able to manage a big win in this game, so their most likely victory option would be a win by a narrow margin. However, Carlton’s 2014 record in games decided by 15 points or less is 2-7. All these stats are pointing me towards Port Adelaide.
I know they have been running cold during the second half of the season, but Port Adelaide have showed some improvement in their past two weeks and I think they’re well worth a nibble to win by 39 points or less.
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Port Adelaide to win @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 23 August
North Melbourne v Adelaide
1:45 PM AEST, Blundstone Arena, Hobart
View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Adelaide
With a relative easy fixture against Melbourne to close the season, there is not too much riding on this game for 6th placed North Melbourne, but it’s a vitally important match for 8th placed Adelaide. The Crows head a pack of four teams on 10 wins, but a victory over the Kangaroos this Saturday would just about confirm a spot in the top 8 for Adelaide ahead of their expected big win in a home game against bottom placed St Kilda next week.
The venue for this match is significant, with the game to be played on neutral turf down in Tasmania as part of North Melbourne’s financial deal with the AFL and Tasmanian government. North Melbourne have a 3-2 record at Blundstone Arena since it started playing their in 2012, so it doesn’t appear as though it carries the same home ground advantage as Etihad Stadium, where the Roos have gone 23-13 during the same period.
If the choice of venue probably won’t have any bearing on the result, what will? Perhaps the absence of North Melbourne’s veteran match winner Brent Harvey will be significant. Harvey was suspended for three weeks for an off-the-ball skirmish last week with Western Bulldogs tagger Liam Picken. The last stretch of games that Harvey missed were the opening six weeks of the 2013 season and during that spell the Kangaroos lost four matches and their season never recovered.
With North Melbourne midfielder Daniel Wells also suspended and Adelaide’s stoppage specialist Scott Thompson returning from injury, I’ve got a feeling the Crows can spring a minor surprise.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Adelaide to win @ 2.12 (Centrebet)
Essendon v Gold Coast
2:10 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Essendon v Gold Coast
Like Adelaide’s scenario in the other Saturday afternoon game, a win for Essendon would go a very long way towards sewing up a finals position for the Bombers. Theoretically, Gold Coast can still make the finals if they manage of pair of victories in their last two rounds, but I think the Suns finals ship sailed off into the sunset with Gary Ablett when the skipper was ruled out for the year with a shoulder injury five long weeks ago.
Essendon were dealt a blow during the week when gun midfielder Dyson Heppell broke his hand during a midweek training drill, meaning the man with the big hairstyle will miss this match, and possibly next week as well. At least the effect of Heppell’s absence will be minimised by the positive return of skipper Jobe Watson last week from a lengthy layoff due to a hip-flexor injury.
The return of Jake Carlisle is the positive selection news for the Bombers though, because Carlisle’s marking prowess was sorely missed last week and coach Mark Thompson had to work very hard to find another goal scoring threat. Thompson’s search for forward line firepower eventually succeeded when running half-back flanker Jason Winderlich was shifted forward in the second half and booted three goals.
I saw the Suns at this venue a fortnight ago against Carlton and they produced a listless display. Essendon may have only won one of their past 10 games by more than 15 points, but I think they should stitch this one up well before the final siren.
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Essendon to win by 16 points or more @ 1.41 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 units on Harley Bennell over 86.5 AFL Fantasy Dream Team points @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on David Zaharakis to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Brent Stanton @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Paul Chapman to kick 3 or more goals @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)
Greater Western Sydney v Collingwood
4:40 PM AEST, Spotless Stadium, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for GWS v Collingwood
The bad luck that affected both these teams last week was so similar that I thought it was impossible two clubs could cop that many bullets in a single weekend.
On Saturday night Collingwood needed a win to keep their finals hopes alive, but the Magpies got hit by five injuries to their very best players. Second highest goal scorer Jamie Elliot and top possession winner Scott Pendlebury were ruled out before the game, then key position defender Ben Reid injured his hamstring in the first five minutes, before leading goal scorer Travis Cloke injured his ankle in the second quarter and second best possession winner Dayne Beams injured his knee in the third quarter. With those five key players out of the game by early in the third quarter, it was no surprise the Magpies were thrashed by Brisbane.
At the same venue the next day GWS copped similar bad luck once the game started. At least the Giants didn’t lose any players before the game, however key position stars Phil Davis and Jon Patton did succumb to injuries in the first half, before key clearance player Callan Ward was sidelined for the second period through injury.
The main difference between GWS and Collingwood was that the Giants were able to overcome their setbacks to win by 64 points, while the Magpies went the other way and lost by 67 points.
Collingwood have regained Pendlebury from his injury but Beams, Cloke, Elliot and Reid have been joined on the injury sidelines by defenders Alan Toovey and Heretier Lumumba. For GWS, Phil Davis has been passed fit to play, but Ward and Patton will miss.
The bookies have Collingwood as warm favourites, but from what I saw last week, the Giants have more run in their legs and if they can jump the Pies at the start it could be a famous win for the fledgling franchise club.
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on GWS to win @ 2.55 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on GWS to lead at the end of every quarter (Wire to Wire market) @ 4.90 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on Dane Swan over 26.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Dylan Shiel to get more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Shane Mumford @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jesse White most goals @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)
Hawthorn v Geelong
7:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Geelong
Apart from a few die-hard West Coast and Melbourne supporters, every AFL fan across the country will tune in for the Saturday night game between Hawthorn and Geelong. This is a modern-day rivalry that produces classic matches with greater reliability than my ABC reception deteriorating during wet weather (the signal stops every time it rains).
The fierceness of the recent rivalry between these clubs dates back to the 2008 Grand Final and the ungracious words of victorious Hawthorn president Jeff Kennett during the post match analysis. Geelong beat Hawthorn in the opening match of the 2009 season, which was the beginning of a stunning sequence that netted the Cats 11 victories in a row against their brown and gold enemies before the Hawks killed the curse with a 5 point win in the Preliminary Final last year. Amazingly, 9 of the past 12 matches between these teams have been decided by 10 points or less, with Geelong winning 8 of those battles.
Apologies to Hawthorn fans, but the best video I could find to highlight the drama of the rivalry was the one below (which appears to have been made by a Geelong fan still bitter about Kennett’s comments in 2012).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VlFkKpzXQWA
Given Geelong’s stunning record in close games against Hawthorn, it should be no surprise to learn the Cats are 10-0 this season against all teams when their matches have been decided by 20 points or less. I nicknamed them the ‘Icemen’ last week and I will stand by that term for the rest of the season!
Both teams have been strengthened at selection, with Hawthorn boosted by the return of spearhead Jarryd Roughead and rugged clearance specialist Brad Sewell, while the Cats have been able to recall veteran utility player Jimmy Bartel.
Even though they are on a 7 game winning streak, I reckon Geelong have only played well in two of those games, so I think the Hawks can buck the trend of the close finishes in this match-up and post a big victory.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 25 points or more @ 2.75 (Bet365, Centrebet)
West Coast v Melbourne
7:40 PM AEST, Patersons Stadium, Perth
View a detailed form guide for West Coast v Melbourne
Let’s be honest, we’re all going to be watching the Hawthorn v Geelong game, so I’m not going to spend much time of this preview. The main point I need to make is that West Coast have been playing well recently and had won a couple in a row before the defeat to Essendon last week. Even though they lost last week, the Eagles still played the better footy for most of the match but didn’t convert their dominance into a big enough lead on the scoreboard before the Bombers came charging home.
Melbourne were horrid last weekend and have been pretty ordinary for a number of weeks now, having lost eight games in a row before this daunting trip west. The line for this match is set at 60 points, which is pretty high when you consider that Melbourne, as poor as they’ve been playing, have only lost by more than 66 points once all season.
Perhaps, rather than a line bet on the margin, the line for the away team total score is the best betting option. Melbourne’s line is set at 54.5 points and the Demons have scored below that mark in four of their past six games, and the two ‘higher scoring’ performances only bagged the red and blues 69 and 65 points.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Melbourne’s team score under 54.5 points @ 1.88 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Chris Masten most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 4.50 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 24 August
Brisbane Lions v Fremantle
1:10 PM AEST, Gabba, Brisbane
View a detailed form guide for Brisbane v Fremantle
Fremantle’s win over Hawthorn last weekend kept them in 4th spot on the ladder and they remain the favourites to snare the last golden ticket to a finals double chance. This is very important when you consider than no side has won the Premiership from outside the top 4 since Adelaide in 1998.
For a team occupying the lower depths of the ladder, Brisbane’s pace is one of the best offensive weapons of any team. So when Collingwood were stricken by injuries early in the game last Saturday night, the Lions were able to take advantage of the extra space they were being afforded and sliced through the Magpies on multiple occasions with ease. Fremantle constrict the area of the field their opponents can play in, and I expect they will provide the young Brisbane players with a completely different scenario to the one faced by Justin Leppitsch’s team last weekend. The Dockers scenario might prove too difficult for the Lions to deal with.
Yes, Fremantle’s midfield has been severely depleted by the suspension of the creative Nat Fyfe and the injury to ball magnet Michael Barlow, but I believe the Dockers are very much a ‘systems’ team under coach Ross Lyon and every player knows his role within that system to ensure the purple haze aren’t as adversely affected as other teams by the absence of key players. I am backing Lyon’s system to propel the Dockers to an important win in their quest for a top 4 berth.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle at the line (-25.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 2 units on David Mundy over 100.5 AFL Fantasy Dream Team points @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Danyle Pearce most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
Western Bulldogs v Sydney
3:20 PM AEST, Etihad Stadium, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Western Bulldogs v Sydney
Sydney looked every inch the Premiership favourites last week as they brushed aside lowly St Kilda by 71 points at the SCG. Powerful forward Lance Franklin also fired a warning to the rest of the competition by slotting 9 goals in a scintillating individual performance. That win kept the Swans on top of the ladder, while their opponents this week, the Western Bulldogs, remained in 14th place on the ladder after a 50 point loss to North Melbourne.
Sydney used to be the stereotypical stodgy team preferring lots of stoppages, but now in his fourth season as coach, John Longmire has retained the contested expertise and added free-flowing attractive football to his side. It’s a dynamic combination illustrated by the frequency of big wins by Sydney this year, with the Swans particular harsh on the weaker teams outside the top 8. Sydney have won 6 of their past 8 matches against teams outside the top 8 by more than 30 points. Therefore a Sydney win by 25 points or more in this game against the 14th placed Western Bulldogs looks very likely.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Sydney to win by 25 points or more @ 1.55 (Centrebet, Sportsbet)
Richmond v St Kilda
4:40 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Richmond v St Kilda
The round concludes with this clash between 9th placed Richmond and 18th placed St Kilda. If Essendon and Adelaide win their respective matches earlier in the weekend then this game becomes quite insignifcant for Richmond, but if one or both of the Bombers and Crows lose, then the Tigers will be playing for a spot in the top 8. The match is definitely significant for St Kilda, because the Saints need to win either this week or next week to avoid winning the wooden spoon.
These teams met just seven weeks ago, and at the time both clubs were sitting equal bottom of the ladder on 3 wins. Richmond easily defeated St Kilda by 44 points that day and used the win as the springboard to leap to a seven game unbeaten streak they are still maintaining.
Richmond are currently 1.3% behind Essendon and 6.7% behind Adelaide, so the incentive is there for the Tigers to post a big win in this game to leapfrog the Bombers on percentage and narrow the gap to the Crows. St Kilda have lost 8 of their past 11 games by 44 points or more, so I think a Richmond line bet is the value pick.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Richmond at the line (-45.5) @ 1.93 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Jack Steven over 25.5 disposals @ 1.90 (Sportsbet)
Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
|
18 |
22.25 |
3.79 |
17.0% |
|
19 |
17.5 |
-3.65 |
-20.9% |
|
20 |
18.75 |
2.72 |
14.5% |
|
21 |
24.5 |
6.23 |
25.4% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
12 |
7.40 |
89.7% |
|
2-leg Multi |
15 |
5.80 |
38.7% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
13 |
5.38 |
71.7% |
|
H2H |
31 |
5.25 |
11.9% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
6 |
1.79 |
21.0% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
9 |
1.66 |
15.8% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
2 |
1.65 |
165.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
11 |
1.46 |
9.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
3 |
0.83 |
30.0% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
First Half line |
1 |
0.48 |
95.0% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
8 |
0.21 |
2.6% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
3 |
0.19 |
8.3% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
25 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
49 |
-0.16 |
-0.3% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
5 |
-0.86 |
-13.2% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
14 |
-1.08 |
-6.1% |
|
3-leg multi |
8 |
-1.51 |
-18.9% |
|
Second Half Line |
7 |
-1.53 |
-15.3% |
|
Most Goals |
25 |
-1.75 |
-9.6% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
13 |
-2.06 |
-12.1% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
17 |
-2.70 |
-23.5% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
5 |
-3.92 |
-49.0% |
|
Line |
38 |
-9.43 |
-19.2% |