Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 404.00 units
Units Won = 413.79 units
Profit/Loss = +9.79 units (2.4% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Any other results in the Wire to Wire market of the Hawthorn v Geelong game @ 2.05
Lance Franklin most goals in the Sydney v Fremantle game @ 3.00
Total Match Score under 170.5 points in the North Melbourne v Essendon game @ 1.88
1 unit @ combined odds of 11.56 (Sportsbet)
Friday 5 September
Hawthorn (2nd) v Geelong (3rd)
7:50 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Geelong
Background: The best rivalry of the modern AFL era is the perfect way to kick off a weekend of finals football. Some obvious pairings come to mind when you think of modern sporting rivalries that demonstrate the very best of their sport; Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal pushing each other to the limit on the tennis court, Barcelona and Lionel Messi battling for Spanish soccer supremacy with Real Madrid and Cristiano Ronaldo, and the past two NBA finals series between Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs. Hawthorn and Geelong’s duels sit comfortably in that company, so footy fans will be in for a treat this Friday night.
Hawthorn and Geelong’s modern rivalry began when the Hawks upset the Cats to win the 2008 Grand Final. After that match, Hawthorn President Jeff Kennett made some ungracious comments in the media and legend has it that many senior Geelong players vowed they would never lose to the Hawks again. The Cats then went on to beat the Hawks in all eleven meetings from the start of the 2009 season until the 2013 finals and, astonishingly, the winning margin was ten points or less in nine of those eleven victories. Every time the pair played, the game went right down to the wire, and every time Geelong prevailed. Hawthorn finally reversed the trend with a 5 point win in last year’s Preliminary Final, before continuing their new-found confidence against Geelong by winning both regular season contests this year by 19 and 23 points.
Team news: Experienced key position defender Brian Lake has overcome a strained quadriceps to keep his place in the Hawthorn team, which is a big boost to the brown and golds considering last year’s Norm Smith Medallist is likely to get the job on beastly Geelong forward Tom Hawkins. With captain Luke Hodge and wingman Brad Hill back after being rested last week, the Hawks are only missing mercurial half-forward Cyril Rioli and skillful rebounding defender Matt Suckling from their best side. Geelong’s list is in a similarly healthy shape, with midfield maestro Steve Johnson recalled from a foot injury, along with flashy outside runner Steven Motlop and underrated ruckman Hamish McIntosh, however the continued absence of Allen Christensen will hurt the Cats.
Who will win and why: I’ll be honest and admit that I am really struggling to split these teams. Both possess plenty of match-winners and have experienced recent finals success. Hawthorn’s big strength is their pinpoint kicking game that slices through the opposition with enough speed to allow entry to a relatively open forward line.
Hawthorn’s kicking game can come unstuck under extreme pressure, which was demonstrated by Geelong when the teams clashed a fortnight ago. The Cats pressured the Hawks into errors and built a five goal lead by early in the third quarter. Geelong did run out of energy in the second half though, and Hawthorn swooped in to kick 11 of the 14 goals after the main break and post a 23 point win.
I don’t think Geelong will be brushed aside as easily during the finals and I see them taking this game right to the wire. I will stick with Hawthorn though, with the decisive factor being the Hawks greater array of marking targets in the forward line. Geelong have Tom Hawkins and a bunch of mid-sized players, while the Hawks have Jarryd Roughead, Jack Gunston and David Hale.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Matthew Stokes over 27.5 disposals @ 1.95 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Brad Sewell most disposals in Gr2 @ 7.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 6 September
Sydney (1st) v Fremantle (4th)
2:45 PM AEST, ANZ Stadium, Sydney
View a detailed form guide for Sydney v Fremantle
Background: The most recent meeting between these sides came way back in Round 5 and Sydney won the hard-fought match by 17 points at the SCG. That triumph was the beginning of the Swans 12-game winning run that propelled John Longmire’s team to the top of the ladder. Fremantle don’t have to go back too far to find recent success against Sydney, with the Dockers knocking the Swans out of the finals last year with a 25 point win at Patersons Stadium. Much like the battles between Geelong and Hawthorn, Sydney and Fremantle have produced some engrossing tussles over the last few seasons, with the past six matches played between the Swans and Dockers all decided by 25 points or less.
The fact that Fremantle is playing away from Perth is very significant. This still holds even the game will be played at ANZ Stadium and not the SCG, which is the Sydney’s preferred venue. Fremantle has won 92% of its matches at Patersons Stadium this season, but the Dockers are only hitting a 50% success rate on their interstate trips.
Team news: Sydney rested some big guns last week, but they have all been wheeled back for the finals. League-leading goal kicker Lance Franklin is recalled, as is gun inside midfielder Josh Kennedy, ruckman Mike Pyke and defensive midfielders Ben McGlynn and Craig Bird. Apart from defender Alex Johnson who has missed the whole season with a serious knee injury, Sydney will enter this game at full strength. Fremantle won’t quite be at full power, with experienced tall defensive pillars Luke McPharlin and Michael Johnson both out through injury. Elite midfielder Nat Fyfe returns from suspension for the Dockers and coach Ross Lyon has sprung a selection surprise with the inclusion of big man Jon Griffin for only his second game of the season. Griffin will provide rucking support to Aaron Sandilands, which is obviously an area of the ground Fremantle think they can exploit.
Who will win and why: I was skeptical when they picked him up, but with both coaches possessing good playing hands in this game, Lance Franklin is the ace Sydney coach John Longmire has to his advantage over Fremantle coach Ross Lyon. Lyon’s hand has been weakened by the injuries that have sidelined two of his best defenders capable of mixing it with Franklin.
At least the Dockers are one of the best sides at putting defensive pressure on their opponents through the midfield, which means that Franklin won’t get the silver service delivery he has received in previous games this season.
Fremantle looked tired in the last quarter of their match against Port Adelaide last weekend as the Power kicked the last five goals of the game to give the Dockers a big fright. Because that match was a battle for the last spot in the top 4, Fremantle were unable to rest most of their key players like the Swans did against Richmond.Therefore, I think Sydney will be fresher and when that is combined with their attacking potency, the Swans should be able to secure the win over the gallant Dockers.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 39 points or less @ 2.14 (Palmerbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Aaron Sandilands to kick a goal at any time @ 2.30 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Nat Fyfe over 27.5 disposals @ 1.87 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Dan Hannebery most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 3.00 (Sportsbet)
North Melbourne (6th) v Essendon (7th)
7:15 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for North Melbourne v Essendon
Background: This Elimination Final between two clubs starved off September success should provide tense Saturday night viewing. North Melbourne hasn’t won a final since knocking off Hawthorn in a 2007 Semi Final, while Essendon has been waiting exactly a decade since their last finals victory, which came on the corresponding weekend in 2004 against Melbourne. These teams only crossed paths once during the home and away season, with Essendon comfortably winning the Round 1 encounter by 39 points. The Kangaroos tasted victory in their last four matches of the season to enter the finals in great form, while the Bombers could only manage a draw with Carlton last weekend.
Team news: The big selection news for this match is that Essendon’s key marking forward Jake Carlisle has not recovered from his hamstring injury and will miss this match. The Bombers are also without veteran defender Dustin Fletcher, but they are the only big names missing from the red and blacks. North Melbourne will again be hindered by the absence of pint-sized game-breaker Brent Harvey to a suspension. The Kangaroos will also be without dependable defender Lachie Hansen due to a hip injury, but coach Chris Scott will have been pleased to recall some of his star players who were rested last week, including Todd Goldstein, Lindsay Thomas and Levi Greenwood.
Who will win and why: Essendon’s forward line has been the club’s Achilles heel this campaign and it looks causing the Bombers to fall at the first hurdle in the finals. Mark Thompson’s team averages the fewest points per game of any finalist and has only kicked more than 16 goals once this season, while North Melbourne has managed that feat five times. The Bombers will find it particularly difficult to kick a winning score this week without big marking forward Jake Carlisle who is still sidelined by a hamstring injury. Carlisle had been the Bombers go-to-guy in the forward line during the second half of the year and without him it is difficult to see where the goals are going to come from.
With Carlisle absent, Joe Daniher is Essendon’s leading goal kicker this campaign, but North Melbourne will have three players on the field that have kicked more goals than Daniher so far this year.
The Bombers do have a sensational midfield quartet with Jobe Watson, Dyson Heppell, Brendan Goddard and David Zaharakis all great players, but North Melbourne, while not possessing the same star power, is also well serviced in that area of the ground by players like Andrew Swallow, Nick Dal Santo, Daniel Wells, Levi Greenwood, Ben Cunnington and Jack Ziebell.
North Melbourne’s greater scoring power should ensure the Kangaroos progress to next week.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to @ 1.70 (Sportsbet – money back promo if your team leads at 3tr time and loses)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Dyson Heppell over 27.5 disposals @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Sunday 7 September
Port Adelaide (5th) v Richmond (8th)
3:20 PM AEST, Adelaide Oval, Adelaide
View a detailed form guide for Port Adelaide v Richmond
Background: Richmond secured the last available finals place with a typically gutsy 3 point win over Sydney last Saturday afternoon. That win was the Tigers 9th in a row and Damien Hardwick’s men have completed the fairy tale finals recovery after sitting joint bottom of the ladder at the end of Round 14. Port Adelaide’s season has been the antithesis of Richmond’s, with the Power two games clear on the top of the ladder after Round 12 before plummeting down the rankings and winning just 4 of their final 11 matches.
Richmond has had the edge on Port Adelaide during the past few years, winning three of their past four clashes and drawing the other. However, the teams have never met at the Adelaide Oval and the Power has certainly enjoyed playing at its new home ground in 2014, boasting a 9-3 record at the venue. Richmond should not be daunted by playing interstate though, with the Tigers returning triumphant from their past five interstate journeys, including a crucial win at this venue over Adelaide three weeks ago.
Team news: Given this is the Sunday match, team line-ups have not been finalised at the time of writing. Both clubs have added three players to their extended bench and it is not clear if they will end up making any changes from last week’s sides. From the provisional line-ups it is clear that both teams have small injury lists and will field close to full strength teams.
Who will win and why: Even though Richmond has won their past nine matches, the margins of their most recent eight victories have all been under 30 points, indicating the Tigers have not been able to play any of their opponents off the park. This will be significant if Richmond can’t put Port Adelaide away before the last quarter this week. But more on that later. Port Adelaide, meanwhile, has recovered from a lengthy flat spot during the middle of the season to have a much better last month and show great promise during quality matches against Sydney and Fremantle.
For this match I am expecting Richmond to bounce out of the blocks full of confidence and sprint to an early lead. However, Port Adelaide has the best last quarter record of any team and I suspect their elite fitness levels combined with a raucous home crowd will lead to a second half Power surge. Based on this, I foresee Ken Hinkley’s side progressing to a Semi Final for the second year in a row and condemning the Tigers to more Elimination Final pain.
Andy’s Bet: 1.5 units on Port Adelaide to win the last quarter @ 1.66 (Centrebet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Richmond to lead at half time and lose the game @ 7.00 (Bet365)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Hamish Hartlett most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 4.00 (Sportsbet)
Season Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
|
18 |
22.25 |
3.79 |
17.0% |
|
19 |
17.5 |
-3.65 |
-20.9% |
|
20 |
18.75 |
2.72 |
14.5% |
|
21 |
24.5 |
6.23 |
25.4% |
|
22 |
23.5 |
-6.57 |
-28.0% |
|
23 |
20.5 |
10.38 |
50.6% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
15 |
7.50 |
85.7% |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
14 |
6.15 |
64.7% |
|
H2H |
35 |
5.45 |
11.0% |
|
2-leg Multi |
16 |
4.80 |
30.0% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
3 |
2.55 |
170.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
14 |
2.14 |
11.1% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Disposals Pick Your Own Line |
1 |
1.90 |
190.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
50 |
1.40 |
3.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
3 |
0.83 |
30.0% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
First Half line |
1 |
0.48 |
95.0% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
3 |
0.19 |
8.3% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
10 |
0.16 |
1.3% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
10 |
0.04 |
0.3% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
6 |
0.02 |
0.3% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
15 |
-0.17 |
-0.9% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
26 |
-0.75 |
-4.8% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
2 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
2 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
8 |
-1.22 |
-10.6% |
|
Second Half Line |
7 |
-1.53 |
-15.3% |
|
Most Goals |
28 |
-1.75 |
-8.4% |
|
Win Q4 |
1 |
-2.00 |
-100.0% |
|
3-leg multi |
9 |
-2.51 |
-27.9% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
17 |
-2.70 |
-23.5% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
6 |
-3.10 |
-31.0% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
16 |
-3.32 |
-15.1% |
|
Line |
44 |
-4.16 |
-7.3% |