Season tally so far
Units Wagered = 414.75 units
Units Won = 425.25 units
Profit/Loss = +10.50 units (2.5% profit)
See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.
Cheeky Weekend Multi
Andy’s Bet:
Mitch Duncan more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Jimmy Bartel @ 1.88
Levi Greenwood more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than Brent Harvey @ 1.85
Nat Fyfe more AFL Fantasy Dream Team points than David Mundy @ 1.70
1 unit @ combined odds of 5.91 (Sportsbet)
Friday 12 September
Geelong (3rd) v North Melbourne (6th)
7:50 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Geelong v North Melbourne
Background: Geelong lost to Hawthorn by 36 points in last Friday’s Qualifying Final, while North Melbourne produced a storming second half to beat Essendon by 12 points in Saturday night’s Elimination Final. The Cats and the Kangaroos have already met twice this season, with Geelong comfortably winning both games.
This match will be the first time that the Scott twin brothers coach against each other in a final. Chris has the better finals experience, having coached the Cats to four successive finals campaigns, which began with a Premiership in his debut coaching year. Conversely, this is only Brad’s second finals series since taking the North Melbourne coaching job in 2010.
Team news: The selection news favours North Melbourne in a big way. The Kangaroos veteran match-winner Brent Harvey is back in the team after serving a three-game suspension. Harvey replaces half-back flanker Ben Jacobs in the team, which is not surprising as Jacobs was ineffectual last weekend before being substituted out of the match in the third quarter.
Geelong’s chance of victory has been reduced by the absences of mercurial midfielder Steve Johnson and first-choice ruckman Hamish McIntosh. Johnson was clearly hampered by a foot injury last week and the club has elected not to gamble on his fitness this weekend, while McIntosh will miss with a knee injury that also restricted his performance last Friday night. Fringe players Mitch Brown and Lincoln McCarthy have been chosen to replace Johnson and McCarthy. It is also worth noting that Geelong’s dangerous forward-flanker Allen Christensen also remains sidelined by injury.
Who will win and why: There are three things in Geelong’s favour for this game: 26 of the 28 teams that have lost in the Qualifying Finals under the current finals system have recovered to win the Semi Final, the Cats have beaten the Roos both times the clubs have clashed this campaign, and Chris Scott’s team has much more finals experience than Brad Scott’s team.
Despite all those indicators that strongly support a Geelong victory, I am leaning towards North Melbourne in this match. Even though they haven’t beaten the Cats this season, the Kangaroos have managed wins against all the other top teams that remain in Premiership contention. North’s best has often been good enough and I think this is because Brad Scott has finally moulded a balanced team that is no longer heavily reliant on a few stars. Those stars still remain – Brent Harvey, Daniel Wells and Drew Petrie – but there is now a core group of players alongside them rather than just following behind.
While Geelong still have plenty of star power, it is their bottom group of talent that worries me and this Friday could see a significant changing of the guard as the blue and white vertical stripes surpass the blue and white hoops.
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 unit on North Melbourne to win @ 2.12 (Sportsbet – money back promo if your team leads at 3tr time and loses)
Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Matthew Stokes over 27.5 disposals @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Andrew Swallow most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)
Saturday 13 September
Fremantle (4th) v Port Adelaide (5th)
7:45 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne
View a detailed form guide for Fremantle v Port Adelaide
Background: You don’t have to go back too far to find relevant recent data for these teams as Fremantle beat Port Adelaide by 8 points at this venue a fortnight ago. That result meant the Dockers finished in the top 4 and got the finals double chance, however last week’s loss to Sydney has pushed Fremantle back into Port Adelaide’s path once again.
The Power will arrive in Perth full of confidence after dominating Richmond in last Sunday’s Elimination Final. Port booted the first seven goals of the game and had the match won by half time after building a 69 point lead. There was one particularly interesting statistic in that game, which was the contested possession tally. Port Adelaide won the count 115-113 but the total number of contested possessions for the match was easily the lowest of the weekend, and it was the lowest in a final since Adelaide defeated Essendon in 2009. Fremantle prefers a game with high-numbers of contested possessions, and their match against Sydney last weekend saw the highest number of contested possessions in a final since the 2011 Grand Final. Because of the nature of their game-style, Fremantle will find it easier to turn this game into a scrap and thus preventing Port Adelaide from winning much uncontested ball, so the Power will have to match the Dockers around the contest if they are to be a chance of victory.
Team news: Pesky Fremantle small forward Hayden Ballantyne broke his jaw last Saturday against Sydney and has been sidelined from this game. Ballanytne is the Dockers leading goal kicker this season and his absence will be a big blow to the hopes of the purple haze. Ballantyne has been replaced by inside midfielder Nick Suban, which is the only change to Fremantle’s team from last week.
Port Adelaide forward-flanker Matt White also suffered a broken jaw last week, although his injury was only a hairline fracture and he has been selected to play. White’s outside run has been so valuable to the Power this year, so it’s no surprise he has been selected even though he will probably play through some discomfort.
Who will win and why: The home ground advantage will be crucial. Fremantle has won 92% of its matches at Patersons Stadium during 2014 (compared to just 45% away from home), while Port Adelaide only has a 50% success rate on the road (compared to 77% at Adelaide Oval). Based solely on these figures I am going to back Fremantle in the head to head market.
If you need further convincing, the likely eventuality of a congested game also favours the Dockers as they have hit-out machine Aaron Sandilands, who should dominate the ruck against Matthew Lobbe and give his midfielders an advantage at the stoppages.
I imagine that neutrals will be cheering for the attacking prowess of Ken Hinkley’s Port Adelaide team to beat Ross Lyon’s defensively focussed Fremantle side, but I will be talking through my wallet and barracking for the Dockers.
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Fremantle to win @ 1.60 (Sportsbet – money back promo if your team leads at 3tr time and loses)
Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Lachie Neale under 27.5 disposals @ 1.80 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Oliver Wines most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 5.50 (Sportsbet)
Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Michael Walters most goals @ 6.00 (Sportsbet)
Season Betting Summary
Round by Round Summary
|
Round |
Units Wagered |
Net Round Result (Units) |
% Profit |
|
1 |
18.5 |
13.24 |
71.6% |
|
2 |
16.5 |
1.17 |
7.1% |
|
3 |
15.75 |
-4.63 |
-29.4% |
|
4 |
19 |
4.26 |
22.4% |
|
5 |
17.5 |
-6.30 |
-36.0% |
|
6 |
18.5 |
-3.63 |
-19.6% |
|
7 |
20.75 |
-0.59 |
-2.9% |
|
8 |
14.75 |
7.17 |
48.6% |
|
9 |
14 |
-3.84 |
-27.4% |
|
10 |
12.5 |
-2.38 |
-19.1% |
|
11 |
16 |
-4.67 |
-29.2% |
|
12 |
15.5 |
-4.53 |
-29.2% |
|
13 |
15 |
8.93 |
59.5% |
|
14 |
14.5 |
1.22 |
8.4% |
|
15 |
14.25 |
-3.87 |
-27.2% |
|
16 |
16 |
-4.14 |
-25.9% |
|
17 |
18 |
-0.52 |
-2.9% |
|
18 |
22.25 |
3.79 |
17.0% |
|
19 |
17.5 |
-3.65 |
-20.9% |
|
20 |
18.75 |
2.72 |
14.5% |
|
21 |
24.5 |
6.23 |
25.4% |
|
22 |
23.5 |
-6.57 |
-28.0% |
|
23 |
20.5 |
10.38 |
50.6% |
|
Finals Week 1 |
10.75 |
0.71 |
6.6% |
Bet Type Summary
|
Bet Type |
Bets |
Net Result |
% Profit |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group |
17 |
7.25 |
74.4% |
|
Goals Pick Your Own Line |
14 |
6.15 |
64.7% |
|
H2H |
36 |
6.15 |
12.2% |
|
2-leg Multi |
16 |
4.80 |
30.0% |
|
Win by 39 points or less |
52 |
3.74 |
7.6% |
|
Team Goals (line) |
1 |
2.55 |
85.0% |
|
Either team by 15 points or less |
3 |
2.55 |
170.0% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H |
14 |
2.14 |
11.1% |
|
Supercoach player H2H |
3 |
1.95 |
27.9% |
|
Disposals Pick Your Own Line |
1 |
1.90 |
190.0% |
|
Win by 70-79 points |
1 |
1.50 |
600.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (any other result) |
3 |
0.83 |
30.0% |
|
Supercoach group |
3 |
0.50 |
20.0% |
|
First Half line |
1 |
0.48 |
95.0% |
|
Win by 24 points or less |
3 |
0.19 |
8.3% |
|
Win by 40 points or more |
10 |
0.16 |
1.3% |
|
Win by 60 points or more |
2 |
0.10 |
5.0% |
|
Win by 25 points or more |
10 |
0.04 |
0.3% |
|
Team Score (Line) |
6 |
0.02 |
0.3% |
|
Total Match Score (line) |
15 |
-0.17 |
-0.9% |
|
Supercoach Individual Line |
3 |
-0.18 |
-4.5% |
|
Medal Winner |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Time First Goal |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Wire to Wire (lead at end of every qtr) |
1 |
-0.50 |
-100.0% |
|
Half Time/Full Time |
2 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 19 points or less |
1 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 20-39 points |
2 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Win by 40-59 points |
2 |
-1.00 |
-100.0% |
|
Either team by 24 points or less |
5 |
-1.03 |
-29.4% |
|
Individual Player Disposals (Line) |
19 |
-1.15 |
-4.7% |
|
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line |
8 |
-1.22 |
-10.6% |
|
Most Disposals in Group B |
27 |
-1.25 |
-7.8% |
|
Second Half Line |
7 |
-1.53 |
-15.3% |
|
Anytime goalscorer |
2 |
-1.75 |
-100.0% |
|
Most Goals |
28 |
-1.75 |
-8.4% |
|
Most Disposals in Group A |
17 |
-2.70 |
-23.5% |
|
Win by 16 points or more |
6 |
-3.10 |
-31.0% |
|
Win Q4 |
2 |
-3.50 |
-100.0% |
|
3-leg multi |
10 |
-3.51 |
-35.1% |
|
Line |
44 |
-4.16 |
-7.3% |