AFL Preliminary Finals Preview and Betting tips

Season tally so far

Units Wagered = 420.75 units
Units Won = 432.75 units
Profit/Loss = +12.00 units (2.9% profit)

See the bottom of the article for a more detailed analysis of betting results.

 

Cheeky Weekend Multi

Andy’s Bet:

Josh Kennedy most disposals in Gr1 of Sydney v North Melbourne game @ 4.25

Luke Hodge to get 25 or more disposals in the Hawthorn v Port Adelaide game @ 2.05

1 unit @ combined odds of 8.71 (Sportsbet)

 

Friday 19 September

Sydney (1st) v North Melbourne (6th)

7:50 PM AEST, ANZ Stadium, Sydney

View a detailed form guide for Sydney v North Melbourne

Background: Sydney took the more comfortable route to this Preliminary Final, finishing top of the ladder at the end of the regular season and defeating Fremantle on home turf in a Qualifying Final that allowed the Swans to bypass last weekend’s Semi Final matches. North Melbourne’s ladder position was not quite as lofty, meaning the Kangaroos have already played two knockout finals; a 12 point win over Essendon a fortnight ago and a heart-stopping 6 point triumph over Geelong last Friday night.

North Melbourne has won its last six matches and those victories over Essendon and Geelong now mean the Kangaroos have beaten every other top 8 team at least once this season. That is a record no other team can match and proves the Roo-boys are more than capable of mixing it with the big clubs.

These teams have only met once this season, with North Melbourne upsetting Sydney to record a 43 point win in Round 4 at the SCG. That result was not in keeping with the recent trend as the Kangaroos did not beat the Swans during eight battles between 2008-2013.

Team news: Sydney’s damaging rebounding defender Nick Malceski has overcome a hamstring strain to keep his place in an unchanged Swans line-up, while North Melbourne has been forced into a change as small defender Jamie Macmillan misses out with a hamstring injury and fellow small defender Ben Jacobs has been recalled to the senior squad after being dropped following an underwhelming display in the Kangaroos first final. Veteran North forward flanker Brent Harvey will play after successfully challenging his suspension at the tribunal on Tuesday night.

The Swans are pretty much at full-strength, with only young defender Alex Johnson missing from their best 22, although Johnson has not played since the 2012 Grand Final because of shocking knee injuries and his absence has been well covered by the ever-improving Dane Rampe. North Melbourne will also be close to full-strength with tall defender Lachie Hansen their most valuable absentee, while the absences of Macmillan, Leigh Adams and Robbie Tarrant will only have a minor impact.

Who will win and why: It has to be Sydney doesn’t it? The Swans have been the best team all season and are fresh after a week’s rest. No team has made the Grand Final after playing on the Semi Final weekend since West Coast manged the feat in 2006. That means the last 14 Preliminary Finals have been won by the team that had the week off.

I watched North Melbourne live last Friday night and was extremely impressed with their dominance and depth in the midfield, however Sydney also has a good spread of midfielders and should be able to match it with the Kangaroos in that part of the ground. The other thing I noted last Friday was that Geelong’s power forward Tom Hawkins managed to boot five goals despite appearing to be restricted in his movement, and Hawkins was supported by part-time player Josh Walker who kicked three goals. If a restricted Hawkins and a fringe player were able to combine for 8 goals against North Melbourne’s key defenders, I imagine Swans duo Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett will fancy their chances of wreaking havoc this weekend.

Last weekend North Melbourne’s depth and evenness was too much for a Geelong team that contained some champions and not much else. Sydney has the champions and the depth, so I think the Kangaroos finals run is about to end.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Sydney to win by 16 points or more @ 1.51 (Sportingbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on North Melbourne to score under 73.5 points @ 1.90 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 0.75 units on Kurt Tippett to kick 3 or more goals @ 2.05 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Jack Ziebell to kick 3 or more goals @ 8.00 (Sportsbet)

 

Saturday 20 September

Hawthorn (2nd) v Port Adelaide (5th)

4:45 PM AEST, MCG, Melbourne

View a detailed form guide for Hawthorn v Port Adelaide

Background: Fans of attacking football will be in for a treat as the two most attacking teams in the league will throw caution to the wind as they battle for the remaining Grand Final slot. Hawthorn is the league’s number 1 ranked attacking side, averaging a whopping 111 points per game in 2014, while Port Adelaide is ranked number 2 with an average return of 101 points per game.

Port Adelaide has played a great finals series so far, brutally dispatching Richmond by 57 points in an Elimination Final before producing a barnstorming second half last week to shock Fremantle and beat the Dockers by 22 points in Perth. Last week’s result was particularly impressive because Fremantle had won 28 of their previous 30 matches on home turf.

Similar to the Friday night match, these teams only met once during the regular season and the underdog grabbed the winning advantage. The Power made the most of their home-ground advantage and several notable opposition absentees to sneak past the Hawks by 14 points in Round 10.

Team news: Both clubs enter this match with close to full-strength teams. Port Adelaide has unsurprisingly named an unchanged team for the second straight week, while Hawthorn has recalled elite-kicking wingman Matt Suckling at the expense of rugged stoppage specialist Brad Sewell. Ruckman Ben McEvoy’s dominant display in the VFL was not enough for him to earn a recall, while dynamic half-forward flanker Cyril Rioli will also play in the VFL this weekend after missing the past ten weeks with a serious hamstring injury.

Who will win and why: As I mentioned for the Sydney v North Melbourne game, it is very rare for teams to lose after enjoying a week off during the finals. However, if there is one team to overcome the physical disadvantage it would be Port Adelaide. The Power are widely regarded as the fittest side and have the best final quarter record of any team this season.

Despite my appreciation of Port’s fitness levels, I am still backing Hawthorn to win this one. I think the Hawks have a bigger group of core players with extensive finals experience, with 9 of their 22 players having played at least 150 AFL games, including plenty of finals. Guys like Luke Hodge, Sam Mitchell and Jordan Lewis can be relied upon to make the big plays when their team needs them too. Port Adelaide will have 6 players that ave played at least 150 senior matches, however those players have had much less finals experience than those in brown and gold.

Port’s time is coming soon, but I don’t it is going to be this year and I am on the Hawks to make a third straight Grand Final. Note that Hawthorn has played in Preliminary Finals each year since 2011 and all three games were decided by less than a goal. So if the Hawks do win, history suggests it’s going to be tight.

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Hawthorn to win by 39 points or less @ 2.20 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 1 unit on Total Match Score over 187.5 points @ 1.91 (Bet365)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Hamish Hartlett most AFL Fantasy Dream Team points in his group @ 5.00 (Sportsbet)

Andy’s Bet: 0.5 units on Luke Breust most goals @ 8.00 (Sportsbet)

 

 

Season Betting Summary

Round by Round Summary

 

Round	Units Wagered	Net Round Result (Units)	% Profit
1	18.5	+13.24	71.6%
2	16.5	+1.17	7.1%
3	15.75	-4.63	-29.4%
4	19	+4.26	22.4%
5	17.5	-6.30	-36.0%
6	18.5	-3.63	-19.6%
7	20.75	-0.59	-2.9%
8	14.75	+7.17	48.6%
9	14	-3.84	-27.4%
10	12.5	-2.38	-19.1%
11	16	-4.67	-29.2%
12	15.5	-4.53	-29.2%
13	15	+8.93	59.5%
14	14.5	+1.22	8.4%
15	14.25	-3.87	-27.2%
16	16	-4.14	-25.9%
17	18	-0.52	-2.9%
18	22.25	+3.79	17.0%
19	17.5	-3.65	-20.9%
20	18.75	+2.72	14.5%
21	24.5	+6.23	25.4%
22	23.5	-6.57	-28.0%
23	20.5	+10.38	50.6%
Finals Week 1	10.75	+0.71	6.6%
Finals Week 2	6	+1.50	25.0%

 

Bet Type Summary

Bet Type	Bets	Net Result	% Profit
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Group	19	+6.25	58.1%
Goals Pick Your Own Line	14	+6.15	64.7%
H2H	38	+5.99	11.5%
2-leg Multi	16	+4.80	30.0%
Win by 39 points or less	52	+3.74	7.6%
Team Goals (line)	1	+2.55	85.0%
Either team by 15 points or less	3	+2.55	170.0%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team H2H	14	+2.14	11.1%
Supercoach player H2H	3	+1.95	27.9%
Disposals Pick Your Own Line	1	+1.90	190.0%
Win by 70-79 points	1	+1.50	600.0%
3-leg multi	11	+1.40	12.7%
Wire to Wire (any other result)	3	+0.83	30.0%
Supercoach group	3	+0.50	20.0%
First Half line	1	+0.48	95.0%
Win by 24 points or less	3	+0.19	8.3%
Win by 40 points or more	10	+0.16	1.3%
Win by 60 points or more	2	+0.10	5.0%
Win by 25 points or more	10	+0.04	0.3%
Team Score (Line)	6	+0.02	0.3%
Total Match Score (line)	15	-0.17	-0.9%
Supercoach Individual Line	3	-0.18	-4.5%
Medal Winner	1	-0.50	-100.0%
Time First Goal	1	-0.50	-100.0%
Wire to Wire (lead at end of every qtr)	1	-0.50	-100.0%
Half Time/Full Time	2	-1.00	-100.0%
Win by 19 points or less	1	-1.00	-100.0%
Win by 20-39 points	2	-1.00	-100.0%
Win by 40-59 points	2	-1.00	-100.0%
Either team by 24 points or less	5	-1.03	-29.4%
AFL Fantasy Dream Team Individual Line	8	-1.22	-10.6%
Most Disposals in Group B	27	-1.25	-7.8%
Second Half Line	7	-1.53	-15.3%
Anytime goalscorer	2	-1.75	-100.0%
Most Goals	29	-2.25	-10.6%
Most Disposals in Group A	17	-2.70	-23.5%
Individual Player Disposals (Line)	21	-2.90	-11.0%
Win by 16 points or more	6	-3.10	-31.0%
Win Q4	2	-3.50	-100.0%
Line	44	-4.16	-7.3%