THE LONG HARD LOOK WITH MIKE WILSON
2015 NRL Season Preview
Brisbane Broncos
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2015 Gains: Adam Blair (Wests Tigers, 2017), Darius Boyd (Newcastle Knights, 2017), Greg Eden (Hull Kingston Rovers, 2016), Mitch Garbutt (Melbourne Storm, 2017), James Gavet (Wests Tigers, 2016), Anthony Milford (Canberra Raiders, 2016), Matt Parcell (2015), Travis Waddell (Newcastle Knights, 2016) 2015 Losses: Ben Barba (Cronulla Sharks), Cameron Cullen (QLD Cup), Jake Granville (North Queensland Cowboys), David Hala (Gold Coast Titans), Ben Hannant (North Queensland Cowboys), Josh Hoffman (Gold Coast Titans), Martin Kennedy (Sydney Roosters), Duncan Paia’Aua (rugby union), Jharal Yow Yeh (retired) Re-Signed: Jai Arrow (2017), Dale Copley (2016), Justin Hodges (2016), Ben Hunt (2017), Lachlan Maranta (2016), Corey Oates (2017), Corey Parker (2016), Jarrod Wallace (2016) Off Contract 2014: Darren Nicholls 2015 Coach: Wayne Bennett |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
General opinions appear divided on the topic of where on the NRL ladder the Broncos will sit after Round 26.
Achieving a desired finals berth will rely heavily on who Wayne Bennett decides to play at five eighth.
Ben Hunt had a stellar 2014 but had to do a lot of work around the ruck on his own with no experienced five eighth on his flank to relieve him of pressure.
As I mentioned last year in my match previews, I have no doubts Justin Hodges would make an excellent five eighth but Wayne Bennett is likely to opt for Anthony Milford to wear the 6.
There’s a good chance Hodges will remain in the centres as Captain of the troops which leaves the fullback position undecided. With Darius Boyd out of the frame thanks to an injury that will have him sitting on the sidelines for an extended period, emerging utility Kodi Nikorima has had his name mentioned a few times in the same sentence as the number one jersey.
The Broncos’ forward pack looks the goods this year and after a few lacklustre seasons with the Tigers, Adam Blair joins the ranks. I have little doubt Wayne Bennett will be able to get the most out of Blair to help him recapture the representative form he displayed when playing for the Melbourne Storm.
But as polished as the starting forward pack appears, depth could be an issue if injuries strike throughout the course of the season.
With dead weights like Ben Barba and Martin Kennedy exiting the club, the Broncos have room to add new talent which can only produce positive results.
I just hope for the sake of Broncos’ supporters that Anthony Milford repays the club for taking him on after 2 years of begging the club for a contract, and doesn’t take a rest now that he’s gotten what he desired.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Prestige names amongst the forwards, Wayne Bennett.
Weaknesses – Lack of depth.
Premiership Best Odds – $11 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
Canberra Raiders
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2015 Gains: Blake Austin (Wests Tigers, 2017), Josh Hodgson (Hull Kingston Rovers, 2016), Rhys Kennedy (Melbourne Storm, 2016), Frank-Paul Nu’uausala (Sydney Roosters, 2017), Iosia Soliola (St Helens RLFC, 2016), Sisa Waqa (Melbourne Storm, 2016), Sam Williams (Catalan Dragons, 2016) 2015 Losses: Matthew Allwood (New Zealand Warriors), Terry Campese (Hull Kingston Rovers), Jake Foster (QLD Cup), Matt Frawley (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Tom Learoyd-Lahrs (Melbourne Storm), Sam Mataora (Newcastle Knights), Matt McIlwrick (Sydney Roosters), Anthony Milford (Brisbane Broncos), Mosese Pangai (QLD Cup), Reece Robinson (Parramatta Eels), Sami Sauiluma (Cronulla Sharks), Lagi Setu (Sydney Roosters), Brett White (retired) Re-Signed: Kurt Baptiste (2016), Luke Bateman (2016), Shannon Boyd (2017), Jarrod Croker (2018), Joel Edwards (2017), Shaun Fensom (2017), Josh McCrone (2016), Jordan Rapana (2015), Dane Tilse (2016), Paul Vaughan (2017) Off Contract 2014: 2015 Coach: Ricky Stuart |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
Coach Ricky Stuart has reportedly hammered his team throughout the preseason in a bid to enhance his players mental and physical endurance capabilities. The mental aspect of the Raiders’ game is the major flaw and I don’t think Ricky Stuart is the right man for the job of addressing these deficiencies.
His old school approach to coaching is a method closer to the hard love attitude of Tommy Raudonikis rather than the nurturing delicateness employed by Wayne Bennett.
I’ve never been keen to back a Ricky Stuart coached team and I’m not about to change my mind for 2015.
The Raiders in their fleeting moments can produce backline movements that rival the best of teams but the lack of commitment for the full 80 minutes can be woeful and more often than not brings about their undoing.
Terry Campese showed no enthusiasm whatsoever for the last 18 months and his exit from the team will only be a positive with young up and comer Mitch Cornish ready to move into the halves. With any luck Blake Austin will join him.
Cornish played his first 8 NRL games in 2014 but had to learn quickly that top grade NRL is played at a faster pace than any other form of 17 a side Rugby League and at times found his kicking game came under a lot of pressure.
If he can adapt to the speed of the game, Cornish could prove to be one of the better players in the Raiders’ line up this year.
NRL followers are well aware of the importance of a good start to any season. The Raiders will have their work cut out for them from Round 4 to 8 when they have four games away from Canberra in the space of five weeks.
This tough little period include match ups against the Roosters, Sea Eagles, Melbourne and South Sydney and should tell us where the Raiders stand in 2015.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Some good signings in Blake Austin, Frank-Paul Nuuausala and Sisa Waqa
Weaknesses – Not an 80 minute team. Ricky Stuart.
Premiership Best Odds – $101 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
Canterbury Bulldogs
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2015 Gains: Matt Frawley (Canberra Raiders, 2016), Antonio Kaufusi (Huddersfield Giants, 2016), Shaun Lane (2015), Michael Lichaa (Cronulla Sharks, 2017), Jacob Loko (Mid Season: Parramatta Eels, 2015), Brett Morris (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2018), Curtis Rona (North Queensland Cowboys, 2016) 2015 Losses: Mitch Brown (Cronulla Sharks), Lachlan Burr (Gold Coast Titans), Michael Ennis (Cronulla Sharks), Dale Finucane (Melbourne Storm), Krisnan Inu (French rugby), Reni Maitua (Featherstone Rovers), Tom Murphy (QLD Cup), John Sila (Wests Tigers), Pat Templeman (QLD Cup) Re-Signed: Tim Browne (2016), James Graham (2018), Timoteo Lafai (2017), Moses Mbye (2016), Josh Morris (2018), Lloyd Perrett (2018), Corey Thompson (2015) Off Contract 2014: Harlan Alaalatoa, Drury Low 2015 Coach: Des Hasler |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
here’s no questioning Des Hasler’s ability has an NRL coach. The former Test and State of Origin representative has coached at the top level for 11 seasons and his sides have played finals footy in 10 of them. Of those 10 years, 5 have resulted in Grand Final appearances for 2 wins.
After taking the Bulldogs to the Grand Final in 2012 in his first year at the helm of the Canterbury club, Hasler’s ‘team’ was brought undone by in house fighting caused succinctly in my opinion by Ben Barba.
With Barba out of the way in 2014, the Bulldogs picked up where they left off in 2012 and made another Grand Final appearance only to be severely out muscled by their opponents; their cause not helped by the loss of Captain Michael Ennis.
Since then, Ennis has been yielded to the Sharks and whether you like him or not, his reliability and consistency around the ruck (and the referees) will be missed.
Whoever Coach Hasler decides is the best man to replace Ennis certainly has their work cut out for them what with so much of the Bulldogs’ game play hinging on managing the ruck and controlling the middle third of the field.
With the outside backs having been somewhat of a weak link in patches and not being helped by a lot of chopping and changing in different positions, the signing of Brett Morris to the club will provide some much needed stability and ability out wide.
His brother, Josh Morris, already owns the left centre position and I don’t think it would be out of the question for Hasler to move Brett to the right hand side of the field in order to shore up some deficiencies both in attack and defence.
Of course, if Brett remains on the left outside his brother, which is likely, they will form one of the best three-quarter combinations in the game and will prove very hard to stop from crossing the stripe.
I expect the Doggies to either have a slow start to the season as they find their place again, or they will get off to a blinder off the back of their outside backs and some stiff defence. There will be no in betweens leading up to the Origin period .
Expect the Canterbury Bulldogs to figure in the finals series once more.
If you don’t have a gripe with short priced odds then backing them to make the top 8 once more is for you.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Des Hasler, defence
Weaknesses – Will likely lose key players during the Origin period, with the same players having to back up after Origin games as well.
Premiership Best Odds – $8.00 (Ladbrokes) 22/02/15
Cronulla Sharks
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2015 Gains: Ben Barba (Brisbane Broncos, 2017), Gerard Beale (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2017), Jack Bird (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2016), Mitch Brown (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2016), Jayson Bukuya (New Zealand Warriors, 2016), Michael Ennis (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2017), Saulala Houma (Sydney Roosters, 2015), Todd Murphy (2015), Sami Sauiluma (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Kyle Stanley (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2015) 2015 Losses: Todd Carney (Catalan Dragons), Isaac De Gois (Parramatta Eels), Bryce Gibbs (retired), Michael Lichaa (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Sione Masima (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Mark Mexico (Gateshead Thunder ), John Morris (retired), Beau Ryan (retired), Tupou Sopoaga (Penrith Panthers), Nathan Stapleton (Sydney Roosters), Siosaia Vave (Manly Sea Eagles), Jonathan Wright (New Zealand Warriors) Re-Signed: Fa’amanu Brown (2017), Sosaia Feki (2017), Andrew Fifita (2018), David Fifita (2016), Jacob Gagan (2016), Wade Graham (2017), Valentine Holmes (2017) Off Contract 2014: Reece Davidson, Eric Grothe, Daniel Holdsworth, Penani Manumalealii, Michael Morris, Tim Robinson, Patrice Siolo, Scott Sorenson 2015 Coach: Shane Flanagan |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
It would be nigh on impossible for the Sharks’ 2015 season to finish worse than 2014. In fact, it will be tough for any team ever to have such a tough season even if they tried.
The Sharks absorbed a plethora of media scrutiny thanks to the ongoing ASADA mess that was still dragging its dirty carcass across the NRL, thankfully withdrawing itself from the frame after handing down pithy suspensions to Sharks players which all but admitted they had no idea what they were doing.
It’s now about picking up where they left off in 2013 and it’s fair to say the Sharks were building nicely under the direction of Coach Shane Flanagan.
Flanagan returns to the helm following a yearlong suspension from the game and knows what his side is capable of having guided them to 7th in 2012 and 5th in 2013.
A lot of people are going to be blinded by the Sharks’ atrocious 2014 when trying to predict where they will finish this season when the fact is that no team was ever going to perform well under the same circumstances. When looking at betting options you are best served by erasing last season from your memory.
One difference is that in 2012 and 2013 the Sharks outfit had an accomplished halfback/five eighth in Todd Carney who has since left the club. If that void can be filled and a suitable partner is found for Jeff Robson in the halves, the Sharks are more than capable of cracking the top 8.
In the off season, the Cronulla club acquired the services of troubled fullback Ben Barba. Barba was thrown a lifeline by the Broncos in 2014 but failed to return the favour after putting in plenty of lacklustre performances.
He has since come out and claimed that the Broncos staff made him bulk up too much and that his entire season was played over weight. Shane Flanagan seems to agree and if reports are true, Barba has already shed nearly 5 kilos leading up to the new season.
Flanagan says Barba has found the preseason training ‘hard’ but to his credit has done what has been asked of him. “He (Barba) has got his zip back.”
The other key player to put pen to Sharks’ paper is hooker Michael Ennis. As I said in my preview of the Bulldogs, Ennis’ reliability and consistency around the ruck are pivotal in steering a team forward. This will benefit the side’s outside backs who will be given plenty of room to move in the outer thirds of the field with Ennis keeping the middle third just that; in the middle.
Sharks fans, don’t be afraid to back your team to make the 8!
The short quick look…
Strengths – Plenty of good off season signings adding to the overall depth. Regular Coach Shane Flanagan returns to the fray.
Weaknesses – The outside backs were pretty ordinary and need to lift their game.
Premiership Best Odds – $34 (Centrebet) 22/02/15
Gold Coast Titans
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2015 Gains: Lachlan Burr (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2016), Davin Crampton (2015), David Hala (Brisbane Broncos, 2016), Josh Hoffman (Brisbane Broncos, 2017), Jai Ingram (2015), Daniel Mortimer (Mid Season: Sydney Roosters, 2016), Kierran Moseley (Penrith Panthers, 2016), Eddy Pettybourne (Wigan Warriors, 2015), James Roberts (Mid Season: Penrith Panthers, 2015), Matt Robinson (Penrith Panthers, 2016), Ryan Simpkins (Penrith Panthers, 2016) 2015 Losses: Luke Bailey (retired), Maurice Blair (Hull Kingston Rovers), Ashley Harrison (retired), Beau Henry (St George Illawarra Dragons), Sam Irwin (Featherstone), Albert Kelly (Hull Kingston Rovers), Tom Kingston (Army), Steve Michaels (Hull FC), Mark Minichiello (Hull FC), Cody Nelson (Parramatta Eels), Brad Takairangi (Parramatta Eels) Re-Signed: Anthony Don (2016), Luke Douglas (2017), Kane Elgey (2015), Kevin Gordon (2017), Ryan James (2017), Matt Srama (2016), Matt White (2016) Off Contract 2014: Matt Beddow, Paul Carter, Ryley Jacks, Siuatonga Likiliki 2015 Coach: Neil Henry |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
The Titans have continued to underwhelm their supporters and the general NRL community alike in the last 4 years. After being favourites to play in the 2010 Grand Final, things went downhill rapidly for the Titans as they collected the wooden spoon in 2011 whilst the 2012, 2013 and 2014 seasons saw them languish in 11th, 9th and 14th positions respectively.
The inevitable result of consistent failures with a talent riddled squad was the sacking of the club’s inaugural and only coach John Cartwright.
Former Raiders and Cowboys coach Neil Henry steps up to the plate to fill Cartwright’s shoes and it will be intriguing to see what he can do with a line up still very similar to the one fielded in 2014.
The backs are bolstered by the excellent signing of Josh Hoffman from the Broncos and there will be plenty for the opposition teams to be worried about if Hoffman is the man chosen to play fullback.
Hopefully the departure of the underperforming Brad Takairangi will create room in the three-quarter positions for Will Zillman.
If centre James Roberts can stay out of trouble and simply focus on his footy then he just might get a chance to show off his capabilities which has him touted as one of the fastest players, if not the fastest in the competition.
Roberts’ reluctance to simply put the pedal to the metal and run the ball last year was frustrating not only for his coach but for lovers of the game who were champing at the bit to see him unleash his raw speed.
Overall the new layout of the Titans’ man power looks to be an improvement on the last couple of seasons which would suggest an upward swing for the side this year. But if players such as Dave Taylor don’t lift their commitment and concentration levels to 100% in the wake of the departures of Minichiello, Bailey and Harrison, then it could be a slow, grinding year for the Titans once more.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Class names in the forwards, off season acquisition of a quality fullback.
Weaknesses – Some players simply fail to commit to 80 minutes of play.
Premiership Best Odds – $67 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
Manly Sea Eagles
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2015 Gains: Uiti Baker (2015), Blake Leary (2016), Willie Mason (Newcastle Knights, 2015), Feleti Mateo (New Zealand Warriors, 2016), Siosaia Vave (Cronulla Sharks, 2015), Brayden Wiliame (Newcastle Knights, 2016) 2015 Losses: Daniel Harrison (London Broncos), Jason King (retired), Epalahame Lauaki (Bradford Bulls), Glenn Stewart (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Anthony Watmough (Parramatta Eels) Re-Signed: Jamie Buhrer (2016), Peta Hiku (2017), Brenton Lawrence (2016), Jamie Lyon (2016), Jesse Sene-Lefao (2016), Tom Symonds (2016), Jorge Taufua (2016), Jake Trbojevic (2016), Tom Trbojevic (2016) Off Contract 2014: Jamil Hopoate, Masada Iosefa 2015 Coach: Geoff Toovey |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
They’re the team that just keeps on keeping on. The Sea Eagles have proven to be one of the more dominant teams of the last 10 years having not missed a finals series since 2004, notching up 4 Grand Final appearances along the way.
There’s no doubt the loss of experienced back rowers Anthony Watmough and Glen Stewart will impact the team up front and it’s the reason many are tipping Manly to struggle this season. The doubters include the bookies who have Manly around 7th in the order of premiership betting.
Even if you are one of the many that is of the belief Manly won’t be up to the task of matching the form of the past few seasons, there’s no denying they possess a world class pair of halves in Daly Cherry-Evans and Kieran Foran. These two alone have plenty of influence on the side based on their playing abilities thanks to their mix of Cherry Evan’s raw talent and Foran’s pure grit and never ending determination to succeed.
Their level of combined skill (and even Cherry Evans’ skill alone) should be enough to guide Manly to a 11th straight finals series.
Coach Geoff Toovey looks to have his most challenging season yet ahead of him but he knows how to read the game. If he is capable of making a real go of 2015 he will certainly bolster his credentials as a first grade coach.
Top off the overall set up of the Manly outfit with a couple of experienced recruits in Willie Mason, Feleti Mateo and Siosaia Vave who will add a bit of ‘know how’, if not exceptional form and Manly should be looking at another finals berth. Success will however hinge on the forward pack.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Arguably the best halves combo in the comp.
Weaknesses – Jamie Lyon, Steve Matai and Matt Ballin on the wrong side of 30, lack of depth in forwards.
Premiership Best Odds – $13 (Ladbrokes) 22/02/15
Melbourne Storm
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2015 Gains: Dale Finucane (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2017), Blake Green (Wigan Warriors, 2016), Marika Koroibete (Mid Season: Wests Tigers, 2016), Tom Learoyd-Lahrs (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Shaun Nona (2015) 2015 Losses: Mitch Garbutt (Brisbane Broncos), Ryan Hoffman (New Zealand Warriors), Rhys Kennedy (Canberra Raiders), Matthew Lodge (Wests Tigers), Junior Moors (Castleford Tigers), Bryan Norrie (retired), Justin O’Neill (North Queensland Cowboys), Ben Roberts (Castleford Tigers), Joel Romelo (QLD Cup), George Rose (St George Illawarra Dragons), Cody Walker (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Sisa Waqa (Canberra Raiders) Re-Signed: Jesse Bromwich (2018), Matt Duffie (2015), Tim Glasby (2016), Slade Griffin (2016), Ben Hampton (2016), Tohu Harris (2017), Cameron Munster (2017), Kevin Proctor (2018), Cameron Smith (2018), Young Tonumaipea (2016) Off Contract 2014: 2015 Coach: Craig Bellamy |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
It seems to be the same story each year when previewing the Melbourne Storm’s chances in an upcoming NRL season. Many write off their chances of even making the finals because they feel the Storm are ‘due’ to miss the top 8.
Each year I question how you can write off a team that fields Cameron Smith, Billy Slater and Cooper Cronk in the same starting 13.
Sure, the ‘big three’ are now over 30 and Billy Slater has lost a bit of his edge thanks to knee problems, but these guys know the game and their positions as well as any player in the NRL.
These three will no doubt be selected to play State of Origin if fit and each year the hangover from the representative period seems to get worse and worse for the Storm.
However in 2015 the Melbourne have scored themselves byes before Origin games 1 and 3 which will be a valuable bonus that could be the difference between making the finals and missing them altogether.
There is still a bit of uncertainty as to who will play five-eighth for the Storm but the front runner at this stage would have to be Blake Green.
Green is a New South Welshman who has been playing in England for the last 4 years in Superleague. The diminutive half would no doubt thrive and develop playing alongside Cooper Cronk and under the guidance of Craig Bellamy.
The Storm forwards will suffer from the loss of Ryan Hoffman and Bryan Norrie but new recruits Tom Learoyd-Lahrs and Dale Finucane will be out to prove to Coach Bellamy they are worthy of filling the voids.
In summary, the Storm undoubtedly have what it takes to make the finals series but the concerns for their season hover around the fragility of their representative players at State of Origin time and the lack of depth in the squad to back up injured troops.
If the Melbourne Storm can get a fairly smooth run to the finals without suffering burn out, they could well and truly feature in the 3rd week of the finals.
The short quick look…
Strengths – The ‘Big 3’
Weaknesses – A seemingly perennial lack of depth
Premiership Best Odds – $14 (Luxbet) 22/02/15
New Zealand Warriors
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2015 Gains: Matthew Allwood (Canberra Raiders, 2017), Mafoa’aeata Hingano (2016), Ryan Hoffman (Melbourne Storm, 2017), Api Pewhairangi (Parramatta Eels, 2015), Bodene Thompson (Wests Tigers, 2017), Jonathan Wright (Cronulla Sharks, 2015) 2015 Losses: Jayson Bukuya (Cronulla Sharks), Kevin Locke (Salford Red Devils), Sam Lousi (rugby union), Feleti Mateo (Manly Sea Eagles), Dane Nielsen (St George Illawarra Dragons), Abraham Papalii (Sydney Roosters), Jerome Ropati (retired), Michael Sio (QLD Cup), James Taylor (Newcastle Knights), Carlos Tuimavave (Newcastle Knights), Adam Tuimavave-Gerrard (St George Illawarra Dragons) Re-Signed: Bradley Abbey (2016), David Bhana (2016), Nathan Friend (2015), David Fusitu’a (2017), Charlie Gubb (2016), Siliva Havili (2016), Mafoa’aeata Hingano (2016), Sebastine Ikahihifo (2015), Shaun Johnson (2017), Solomone Kata (2016), Thomas Leuluai (2017), Jacob Lillyman (2017), Mason Lino (2015), Sam Lisone (2016), Sione Lousi (2016), Simon Mannering (2018), John Palavi (2016) Off Contract 2014: Agnatius Paasi 2015 Coach: Andrew McFadden |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
It seems that year in, year out, the Warriors bolster their reputation as being consistently inconsistent.
They are always one of the hardest teams to gauge in the preseason and the Warriors don’t appear to be making it easier on us in 2015.
Despite plenty of activity in the gains and losses category, the Warriors will essentially keep their core line up that they fielded in 2014, with most of the players that were lost to other clubs being easily replaceable.
The aforementioned ‘core’ line up could be improved more by a consistent halves pairing and less chopping and changing of the five eighth position. Thomas Leuluai and Chad Townsend are the obvious first choices to wear the number 6 jersey and consistency in the position will be of huge benefit to the side.
Boom centre Konrad Hurrell was no doubt a huge part of the backbone for the Warriors last year but I think he can be better utilised with some earlier ball distribution in order to get him well and truly in motion by the time he greets the defensive line. A lot of the time he gets sent the ball with little room outside of him and for Hurrell to blossom, he needs a bit more space between himself and the right touchline for when he wants to step off his left foot.
Another player I’ll be watching closely, and I had big wraps on him last year, is prop Suaia Matagi. He went from strength to strength last year and if Matagi can just push his game to the 100th percent, he possesses the potential to become one of the best in the game. I believe he is one of the most underrated players in the game at this point in time.
So where will the Warriors finish at the end of the 2015 season? Hold on while I pick a number out of my hat…but in seriousness, they only missed the finals last year by 13 for and against points and that’s 13 points I think they could have found had Matt Elliott not been coaching the side during the first 6 games of the year before getting the sack.
With Coach Andrew McFadden at the helm from the get go this time around, he’ll add somewhat of a tempered tempo to the team’s season that can have them finishing in the bottom half of the eight.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Good depth in most positions
Weaknesses – Defensive weaknesses in the backline.
Premiership Best Odds – $15 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
Newcastle Knights
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2015 Gains: Sam Mataora (Mid Season: Canberra Raiders, 2017), Tariq Sims (North Queensland Cowboys, 2016), Jack Stockwell (St George Illawarra Dragons, 2017), James Taylor (Mid Season: New Zealand Warriors, 2016), Carlos Tuimavave (New Zealand Warriors, 2016) 2015 Losses: Darius Boyd (Brisbane Broncos), Adam Cuthbertson (Leeds Rhinos), Michael Dobson (Salford Red Devils), Matt Hilder (retired), Josh Mantellato (Hull Kingston Rovers), Willie Mason (Manly Sea Eagles), Matt Minto (QLD Cup), Chance Peni (Wests Tigers), Travis Waddell (Brisbane Broncos), Brayden Wiliame (Manly Sea Eagles) Re-Signed: David Fa’alogo (2015), Marvin Filipo (2015), Chris Houston (2016), Joey Leilua (2016), Danny Levi (2017), Sam Mataora (2017), Alex McKinnon (2016), Jarrod Mullen (2018), Tyrone Roberts (2016), Nathan Ross (2016), Paterika Vaivai (2016) Off Contract 2014: Toka Likiliki, Timana Tahu 2015 Coach: Rick Stone |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
It’s been a tough couple of years for the Knights with off field dramas amongst club powerbrokers having a negative effect on the players which ultimately led to poor results.
It was a time when the Newcastle faithful had high hopes for the club with Coach Wayne Bennett recruited to lead the club to its first premiership since 2001.
Unfortunately things never went to plan and Bennett has now moved on to coaching the Brisbane Broncos.
Taking over from Bennett is his predecessor Rick Stone. Stone coached the club from 2009 to 2011 and took the Knights to two finals series in those three seasons.
Stone now takes charge of a side that were one of the form teams in the back half of 2014 having won 8 of their last 11 matches in convincing style.
The Knights have recruited modestly in the off season but haven’t suffered any irreplaceable losses either (depending on your opinion of Darius Boyd).
Beau Scott, Jeremy Smith, Clint Newton, David Fa’alogo and Kurt Gidley are on the wrong side of 30 but their experience is priceless, not to mention Scott’s ability to put in the proverbial 110% in every match.
Success for the Knights will most definitely hinge on the halves. Mullen knows his job but certainly isn’t in the top echelon of halves and Tyrone Roberts needs to find consistency week in, week out.
Newcastle sit 10th in order of premiership betting but I rate them better than the odds of $34 that are available, even if it’s for the purpose of backing now and trading them come finals time.
If you’re after a bit of fun, get on Sione Mata’utia for top tryscorer of the year.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Rick Stone’s return as coach. Experienced veterans in the side.
Weaknesses – Inconsistent halves. Lack of depth.
Premiership Best Odds – $34 (Luxbet) 22/02/15
North Queensland Cowboys
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2015 Gains: Jake Granville (Brisbane Broncos, 2016), Ben Hannant (Brisbane Broncos, 2015), Kyle McConnell (2016), Tautau Moga (Mid Season: Sydney Roosters, 2016), Justin O’Neill (Melbourne Storm, 2016), Kelepi Tanginoa (Parramatta Eels, 2016) 2015 Losses: Anthony Mitchell (QLD Cup), Curtis Rona (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Ashton Sims (Warrington Wolves), Tariq Sims (Newcastle Knights), Brent Tate (retired), Ricky Thorby (QLD Cup) Re-Signed: Josh Chudleigh (2015), Gavin Cooper (2017), Kyle Feldt (2017), Glenn Hall (2015), Sam Hoare (2016), Rory Kostjasyn (2016), Robert Lui (2015), Matthew Wright (2016) Off Contract 2014: Joel Riethmuller 2015 Coach: Paul Green |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
The Cowboys have been on the end of heartbreaking results for 3 years running now but this is the year they look the goods to make it all the way to the big stage on October 4th.
Bad luck has plagued their seasons but a true punter knows that a swing of results always evens itself out.
Perhaps it can be considered an early bit of luck that the Cowboys only have to contest one match before a State of Origin fixture meaning only one game without the services of superstar halfback Johnathan Thurston.
The Cowboys came into their own in the back half of last season when Coach Paul Green finally came to his senses and put Johnathan Thurston as the first receiver.
The positional change has a positive knock on effect through to Robert Lui outside Thurston who when given some early ball has a chance to bring his speed game into motion causing a lot more headaches for opposition defence.
Lui is a player who would have thrived with room to move in lower grades but struggles under the pressure of NRL football when playing first receiver against faster, more powerful opponents.
Now wearing the number 6 jersey, Lui offers his team and Thurston in particular an effective extra option in attack. You can expect to see a fair chunk of Cowboys tries coming on the left hand side on the play after a Lui attacking raid that will take place on the right which drags the defence and bunches them in his section of the field.
At the end of last year I was already looking ahead to 2015 for what I expected to be a breakout season for back rower Jason Taumalolo. Whilst I still think this could be a big year for him, I was surprised to see him turn up to the Auckland 9’s looking bigger than ever. I hope his extra size doesn’t hinder his dynamic abilities, or his potential.
Take the Cowboys to make the top 8 and to win the premiership. The premiership bet can be ridden until week 2 or 3 of the finals before you decide whether to keep it or trade it at lower odds.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Johnathan Thurston.
Weaknesses – Away games.
Premiership Best Odds – $12 (Centrebet) 22/02/15
Parramatta Eels
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2015 Gains: Beau Champion (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2015), Ben Crooks (Hull FC, 2016), Isaac De Gois (Mid Season: Cronulla Sharks, 2016), Richie Fa’aoso (2015), Cody Nelson (Gold Coast Titans, 2016), Reece Robinson (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Brad Takairangi (Gold Coast Titans, 2015), Anthony Watmough (Manly Sea Eagles, 2018), Danny Wicks (2015) 2015 Losses: Mitchell Allgood (Hull Kingston Rovers), Evander Cummins (QLD Cup), Liam Foran (London Broncos), Daniel Harrison (London Broncos), Jarryd Hayne (NFL), Jacob Loko (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Lorenzo Ma’Afu (QLD Cup), Fuifui Moimoi (Leigh Centurions), Lee Mossop (Wigan Warriors), Api Pewhairangi (New Zealand Warriors), Brenden Santi (Wests Tigers), Ken Sio (Hull Kingston Rovers), Ben Smith (retired), Kelepi Tanginoa (North Queensland Cowboys), Willie Tonga (Catalan Dragons) Re-Signed: Kenny Edwards (2017), David Gower (2016), Manu Ma’u (2017), Tim Mannah (2017), Tepai Moeroa (2017), Joseph Paulo (2016), Semi Radradra (2018), Vai Toutai (2017) Off Contract 2014: Toby Evans, Ben Jones, Taniela Lasalo 2015 Coach: Brad Arthur |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
Jarryd Hayne’s departure from the club to take up a career overseas has been well publicised and the general consensus amongst the public is that the Eels will struggle in his absence.
There are no doubts the 17 men that take the field each week will be slightly less talented now that Hayne’s name won’t be showing up on the roster and the club could be looking down the barrel of another tough year.
A tough year means missing the finals but it doesn’t it certainly doesn’t mean the club can’t use it to find their feet with some new combinations in the post Hayne era.
I’m not suggesting all doom and gloom in 2015 and I felt very close to finding a spot for the Eels in the top 8 but my gut instinct can’t bring me to do it.
One person who will definitely benefit the Eels with his return is Nathan Peats and his impact on the team in the few games he played last year can’t be underestimated.
An injury free 2015 for Peats would see him maximise the club’s potential thanks to not only his staunch determination, but also his talent which makes him capable of controlling the ruck at the right times.
Plenty of people were bagging Chris Sandow last year and I’d say a lot of those people never actually watched Eels games. Sandow did the best with what he had and certainly didn’t get a lot of support from his outside backs including 5/8th Corey Norman.
Sandow’s off the cuff style of play was beneficial to the side and if coach Brad Arthur can have his outside backs more organised around their halfback, the side will be worth at least an extra try per game.
Another positive for the Eels: the signing of Anthony Watmough from the Sea Eagles. The representative footy veteran will bring an absolute plethora of experience and talent to the side and will no doubt become an immediate leader.
All in all it looks like a challenging year for the Eels and they’ll probably want to make it count at the start considering they don’t play at Pirtek Stadium between round 16 and round 25.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Aggressive young forward pack with the addition of Anthony Watmough
Weaknesses – Holes and lack of depth in the outside backs.
Premiership Best Odds – $41 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
Penrith Panthers
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2015 Gains: Rodney Coates (2015), Adrian Davis (2015), Apisai Koroisau (South Sydney Rabbitohs, 2016), Ben Murdoch-Masila (Mid Season: Wests Tigers, 2015), Tupou Sopoaga (Cronulla Sharks, 2016 2015 Losses: Luke Capewell (QLD Cup), Anthony Cherrington (QLD Cup), Ethan Cook (Central Newcastle), Tim Grant (South Sydney Rabbitohs), Tom Humble (QLD Cup), Kevin Kingston (retired), Kierran Moseley (Gold Coast Titans), Eto Nabuli (St George Illawarra Dragons), Kevin Naiqama (Wests Tigers), Wes Naiqama (London Broncos), James Roberts (Gold Coast Titans), Matt Robinson (Gold Coast Titans), Ryan Simpkins (Gold Coast Titans), Vaipuna Tia Kilifi (QLD Cup) Re-Signed: Sam Anderson (2015), Bryce Cartwright (2018), George Jennings (2016), Jeremy Latimore (2015), Josh Mansour (2016), Sam McKendry (2019), Matt Moylan (2017), Dean Whare (2017) Off Contract 2014: Tom Eisenhuth, Nathan Smith 2015 Coach: Ivan Cleary |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
They were the ultimate over achievers in 2014 and the Panthers went about finding their way to the 3rd week of finals against the tide of public criticism and the naysayers.
I don’t believe they lost any players in the off season that can’t be replaced and in fielding a similar side this year to that of 2014, there’s a decent chance the Panthers can give the competition a good shake again.
I can’t however say that I’ll be in their corner. They were lucky in the sense that they got the chocolates in 8 games last year by 6 points or less and whilst a win is a win, the luck could turn on its head.
A lot of the players got their first real taste of finals footy last year and to come up one short of the decider would no doubt have this group hungrier than before to go one better.
Fullback Matt Moylan is ready to go from strength to strength and the rest of the backs showed some searing pace, not to mention power, particularly in the run up to the finals.
The forwards are one of the few packs that seem to produce their best footy in defence rather than attack. If I had to name some players I would least like to get tackled by, Nigel Plum and Adam Docker would certainly be on the list.
James Segeyaro is the dymamite amongst the forwards in attack and plays a style of footy like no other. He’s great at picking out weak and tired defenders and plays his footy as straight as a die.
There were a couple of games the Panthers may have lost but it wasn’t through lack of trying and expect them to give their all once more. The question is; will it be enough?
They’re a tough team to pick and therefore I won’t be risking any of my hard earned cash on them in the preseason.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Persistence and effort; a team that really play for each other.
Weaknesses – Can struggle away from home despite their talent and ability.
Premiership Best Odds – $11 (Centrebet) 22/02/15
South Sydney Rabbitohs
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2015 Gains: Tim Grant (Penrith Panthers, 2018), Sione Masima (Cronulla Sharks, 2015), Daryl Millard (Catalan Dragons, 2015), Glenn Stewart (Manly Sea Eagles, 2016), Cody Walker (Melbourne Storm, 2016) 2015 Losses: Sam Burgess (Rugby union), Beau Champion (Parramatta Eels), Matt Hyland (NSW Cup), Apisai Koroisau (Penrith Panthers), Nathan Merritt (retired), Joe Picker (retired), Ben Te’o (rugby union) Re-Signed: Jason Clark (2016), Issac Luke (2017), Chris McQueen (2016) Off Contract 2014: Nathaniel Neale, Lote Tuqiri 2015 Coach: Michael Maguire |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
The 2014 premiers will no doubt go through this season with a target square on their backs as the other 15 teams seek to prove themselves against the reigning champs.
Personally I think the Bunnies will thrive on it and in my eyes they appear to have one of the best chances to become the first team to go back to back in the competition since the Broncos achieved the feat in 1992/1993.
Many will argue that the loss of Sam Burgess will be too great a hole to fill but I’m sure his brother George will disagree and will be looking to leave a similar mark on the game. No doubt Tom Burgess will want a piece of the action as well.
In the off season the Rabbitohs managed to recruit Manly lock Glenn Stewart which is a great signing based on his experience alone. The versatile back rower is a veteran of over 180 NRL games and also has 5 Origins and 5 test matches under his belt.
The only potential negative to Stewart’s signing is his recent susceptibility to injury having suffered knee and ankle problems last year. Hopefully for Souths’ sake he can stay in one piece.
The Souths backline is still in good nick and any side with Greg Inglis at fullback is a formidable force.
Luke Keary looks set to make the five eighth position his own and alongside halfback Adam Reynolds the two combine as an electric duo that certainly keeps the opposition on their toes.
The overall depth of the squad looks excellent and we know nowadays that factor can prove vital at the back end of a season when players’ bodies start to break down under the burden of a long, tough season.
There’s value in the $6.50 on offer from Sportsbet for the Bunnies to win the 2015 premiership (correct as of 16/02). Get your money on and as I always say, we can determine the best option for the bet come finals time (whether to let it ride or lay it off) if the Rabbitohs have made it that far, which I’m confident they will.
The short quick look…
Strengths – An all round strong team.
Weaknesses – Not many!
Premiership Best Odds – $6.50 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
St. George-Illawarra Dragons
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2015 Gains: Fraser Alcock (2015), Beau Henry (Gold Coast Titans, 2015), Kris Keating (Hull Kingston Rovers, 2015), Heath L’Estrange (Sydney Roosters, 2015), Eto Nabuli (Penrith Panthers, 2015), Dane Nielsen (New Zealand Warriors, 2016), Rulon Nutira (2015), George Rose (Melbourne Storm, 2015), Adam Tuimavave-Gerrard (New Zealand Warriors, 2016) 2015 Losses: Josh Ailaomai (QLD Cup), Gerard Beale (Cronulla Sharks), Jack Bird (Cronulla Sharks), Matt Groat (Salford Red Devils), Brett Morris (Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs), Kyle Stanley (Cronulla Sharks), Jack Stockwell (Newcastle Knights), Sam Williams (Canberra Raiders), Michael Witt (retired) Re-Signed: Jack de Belin (2017), Matthew Dufty (2016), Tyson Frizell (2018), Yaw Kiti Glymin (2015), Nathan Green (2015), Drew Hutchison (2017), Jack Kavanagh (2016), Luciano Leilua (2016), Will Matthews (2015), Charly Runciman (2016), Hame Sele (2016), Izaac Thompson (2017) Off Contract 2014: Bronson Harrison, Willie Mataka, Shane Pumipi 2015 Coach: Paul McGregor |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
I’m predicting another difficult year for the St George-Illawarra merger. All involved in the team had plenty of time at the end of last season to begin getting things right for the new season under new coach Paul ‘Mary’ McGregor but I’m not convinced it’s all going to plan.
There’s a hint of a word that Benji Marshall might still think he’s a bit above most people and it doesn’t look like Trent Merrin has been seeing eye to eye with Coach McGregor.
Merrin is one of the best forwards of the game but he and his manager have made it clear they would rather be elsewhere and it doesn’t bode well for the club when one of your stars may not have his heart and soul completely into proceedings.
It was well spruiked last year that the Dragons lacked considerable size in the forwards and whether you agree or disagree, it doesn’t appear that the likes of George Rose are the answer.
However the Dragons’ depth in the halves looks better with the signings of Beau Henry and Kris Keating. I don’t rate Kris Keating as a fantastic half but he can get the job done.
Henry on the other hand has never seemed to have been given a proper chance to demonstrate his talents at a first grade level and personally I think any club lacking a genuine halfback should snap Henry up.
Dragons fans may not know it but they just might be better served if Marshall happened to miss some games for whatever reason giving Henry a chance to step up to the plate.
That leaves the outside backs and leads us to the Dragons biggest loss in superstar Brett Morris. Brett has been lured to the Bulldogs to play alongside his brother Josh leaving a gaping hole for the Dragons to fill. Centre Gerard Beale has also departed but his centre role looks likely to be taken over by the incoming Dane Nielsen from the Warriors.
If you were to ask me exactly where I think the Dragons will finish the 2015 season, I couldn’t pinpoint a definitive position on the competition ladder, but I do know that I can’t foresee them finishing in the top 8.
It’s up to them to prove me wrong.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Classy international 5/8th in Gareth Widdop
Weaknesses – Ego, disharmony, unproven forwards.
Premiership Best Odds – $51 (Palmerbet) 22/02/15
Sydney Roosters
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2015 Gains: Blake Ferguson (2015), Martin Kennedy (Brisbane Broncos, 2016), Matt McIlwrick (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Abraham Papalii (New Zealand Warriors, 2016), Lagi Setu (Canberra Raiders, 2015), Nathan Stapleton (Mid Season: Cronulla Sharks, 2015) 2015 Losses: Remi Casty (Catalan Dragons), Saulala Houma (Cronulla Sharks), Kurt Kara (NSW Cup), Heath L’Estrange (St George Illawarra Dragons), Rhyse Martin (QLD Cup), Anthony Minichiello (retired), Tautau Moga (North Queensland Cowboys), Daniel Mortimer (Gold Coast Titans), Curtis Naughton (Hull FC), Frank-Paul Nu’uausala (Canberra Raiders), Sonny Bill Williams (Rugby union) Re-Signed: Tyler Cornish (2016), Kane Evans (2017), Jake Friend (2018), Isaac Liu (2016), Sam Moa (2016) Off Contract 2014: 2015 Coach: Trent Robinson |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
The Roosters fell one game short of last year’s Grand Final and had to relinquish their status as NRL Premiers a week later. It felt as is the Roosters’ charge towards the finals with a 6 game winning streak may have started a tad early as they ultimately lost 2 of their 3 games in finals weeks.
2015 looms large for the Roosters and there are high expectations from their fans who know that despite some player losses in the off season, they support a team that is capable of making the finals for the 3rd straight season.
Of those player losses, none were more high profile than Sonny Bill Williams who took up an offer from Super Rugby and departed our great game once more.
Joining William are the likes of club stalwart Anthony Minichiello and enforcer Frank-Paul Nuuausala and void these three alone have opened up will no doubt be a tough one to fill.
One player to step in and try to fill the holes created by player movements is controversial figure Blake Ferguson. Whether you like Ferguson or not, it can’t be denied that the man has talent on the footy field.
Ferguson missed the entire 2014 season after being booted from the National Rugby League after being found guilty of indecently assaulting a female in 2013. He needs to repay those at the Roosters who have shown faith in him and if he pulls his head in, as it appears he is doing thus far, Ferguson will no doubt have a big season in 2015.
Mitchell Pearce looks set for a big year. In one of those unforseen situations, Pearce’s game only went up last year following his ‘sacking’ from the NSW Origin team and he seems determined to prove his worth and is succeeding despite what the average troll on social media says.
Others in NRL circles seem confident that the Roosters are top 4 material but I’m not afraid to admit I harbour plenty of uncertainty over where exactly the Roosters will finish the home and away season.
They appear, in general as a top 4 side but will the off season losses and the weight of expectation knock them into the bottom half of the 8?
The short quick look…
Strengths – Solid roster on paper, astute coach.
Weaknesses – Heavy player losses in the off season.
Premiership Best Odds – $7.00 (Centrebet) 22/02/15
Wests Tigers
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2015 Gains: Josh Drinkwater (London Broncos, 2016), Matthew Lodge (Mid Season: Melbourne Storm, 2015), Kevin Naiqama (Penrith Panthers, 2015), Chance Peni (Newcastle Knights, 2016), Brenden Santi (Mid Season: Parramatta Eels, 2015), John Sila (Mid Season: Canterbury-Bankstown Bulldogs, 2015) 2015 Losses: Braith Anasta (retired), Blake Austin (Canberra Raiders), Adam Blair (Brisbane Broncos), Jarred Farlow (French rugby), Liam Fulton (retired), James Gavet (Brisbane Broncos), Jy Hitchcox (Featherstone Rovers), Marika Koroibete (Melbourne Storm), Ben Murdoch-Masila (Penrith Panthers), Cory Paterson (Salford Red Devils), Bodene Thompson (New Zealand Warriors), Andrew Vela (QLD Cup) Re-Signed: Sitaleki Akauola (2016), Manaia Cherrington (2016), Asipeli Fine (2017), Dallas Graham (2017), Delouise Hoeter (2016), Lamar Liolevave (2016), David Nofoaluma (2017), Ava Seumanufagai (2015), Curtis Sironen (2017), James Tedesco (2017), Aaron Woods (2017) Off Contract 2014: Michael Bullock 2015 Coach: Jason Taylor |
THE LONG HARD LOOK:
The Wests Tigers or Farah Tigers or whatever you want to call them, were in complete disarray by the end of last season. The turmoil off the field resulted in a lowly ranking on the ladder and Coach Mick Potter was shown the door.
Jason Taylor steps into the coaching role and apart from his caretaking role with Parramatta in ’06, Taylor coached the Rabbitohs for 3 seasons from ’07 to ’09.
Those years came with limited success, peaking in ’07 when his side made the top 8 only to bow out in the first week thanks to a flogging dished out by the Sea Eagles.
Given the poor finish to last season for the Tigers, this year is most likely expected to be a ‘rebuilding’ season for the club and there shouldn’t be too much pressure on Taylor as coach.
Back to Robbie Farah and there’s no doubt the Tiger’s hooker is one of the top players in the competition and it’s ugly to think how the club would fare without him. But he needs to focus on his footy and getting his side to the finals. He has a decent forward pack around him including international prop Aaron Woods that could do the job.
A lot of the forwards could use a bit of guidance in the wake of departures from the forward pack including Liam Fulton, Braith Anasta, James Gavet, Bodene Thompson, Corey Paterson and the high profile Adam Blair.
Silly errors and general brain fades amongst the forwards are a bit of an issue and Jason Taylor will need to address this area in order to get the most out of his big men.
When you look at the list of backs for the Tigers there is plenty of talent and potential there.
There is plenty of experience with Chris Lawrence and Pat Richards out wide whilst halves Luke Brooks and Mitchell Moses fill the ‘potential’ category with plenty of room for improvement despite having great seasons last year.
If the Tigers are to make the top 8 in 2015 their campaign must centre on consistency. There are players in the side who need to be prepared to put their bodies on the line week in, week out.
A good game here and there won’t cut it.
I for one won’t be throwing any money around the Tigers as they look like a no bet case to me.
The short quick look…
Strengths – Robbie Farah
Weaknesses – Poor depth, inconsistent performances from players.
Premiership Best Odds – $41 (Sportsbet) 22/02/15
