The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 10 of the 2015 season.
Friday, June 5
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Fremantle vs Richmond8:10PM AEST, Patersons Stadium |
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The Tigers have won three on the trot and are feeling pretty good about themselves. They’ve played some good footy in Perth over the past few years so they’ll take heart in that, but it’s a tough assignment over there against the unbeaten Dockers. There’s been a fair bit of talk this week about how they should handle Nat Fyfe, whether they should send a Taylor Hunt type to tag him or send Trent Cotchin to him and let them go head to head and rely on the team defence to limit his influence.
That’s what Adelaide did last week with Patrick Dangerfield and you could mount a strong argument to say it worked. Fyfe had 40 touches and a kicked a goal, Dangerfield 38 touches and a goal. Unfortunately, Fyfe is that good that if you don’t tag him or at least play a defensively minded player on him then he’s likely to get 40 possessions every game, and if Fyfe is getting that much of the ball then the Dockers will invariably win.
I wouldn’t be going the hard tag, but I definitely wouldn’t just let it become a one-vs-one shoot out, because he’s too good. Play someone on him who will defend hard and then try to take any half opportunities that arise to hurt him going the other way.
Whether Fyfe has a big game or not, you’d still expect the Dockers will be too good and I’m expecting the Tigers to receive a firm reality check on Friday night.
Betting tip: 2 units – Dockers by 40+ @ $2.65 (William Hill)
Saturday, June 6
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Carlton vs Adelaide1:40PM AEST, MCG |
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The effort was better from Carlton last week. They were still beaten by 10 goals, but really, that wasn’t a bad result considering their recent form and the fact they were missing Murphy, Gibbs, Judd and Jamison. This week they should welcome back Murphy and Judd, with Gibbs and Jamison still another week away.
The Crows have been in indifferent form over the last 4-6 weeks and this week presents the Blues another chance to go in hard early and give the Crows a real challenge. Adelaide should win and win comfortably, but it’s another test for the Blues and John Barker to make sure they bring effort and intensity for four quarters.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Crows by 40+ @ $2.80 (PalmerBet)
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Gold Coast vs Sydney4:35PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Suns were actually quite good in Tassie against the Hawks last week, but they’ve still managed to cop a lot of criticism this week, mainly centred around their cultural and behavioural issues. Charlie Dixon and Jack Martin were found to have had a few drinks the night before the game, and somehow that’s a slight on Gary Ablett and his ability to captain the club. Gary Ablett’s leadership is nowhere near their biggest issues at the moment, it’s an issue much bigger than him. Rocket Eade is doing his best to change the culture, but it looks like it might take him a while, and there might be a clear out of extremely talented but undisciplined Suns come the end of the year.
They’ve got the Swans this week, which is almost certain to be another big loss. I have a feeling the Suns are desperate to get to the bye and then regroup, but there’s two more games before then that they’ll have to limp through. Their opposition for those two games? Sydney and Fremantle. Good luck.
Betting tip: 0.5 units – First Goal Scorer – Luke Parker @ $13.00 (SportsBet)
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Essendon vs Geelong7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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Saturday night at Etihad Stadium brings us an interesting clash between two middle-of-the-road clubs. They’ll both be looking to return to the winners list after disappointing defeats, and they’ve both got a few key injuries, with the Bombers missing skipper Jobe Watson and the Cats without key recruit Mitch Clark.
It should be a fascinating game of footy and I don’t think there’ll be much in it at the end of the game. I reckon the Cats might just get up.
Betting tip: 0.5 units – First Goal Scorer – Steve Motlop @ $17 (SportsBet)
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Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs7:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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After it looked like the Demons were going to put an almost definitive end to the top four hopes of Port Adelaide on the weekend, the Power were able to re-group and kick 16 goals to 2 after the mid point of the 2nd quarter. Does that mean they’re back to their best? I’m not convinced yet, but we’ll find out this week when they take on the Dogs, who had their own return-to-form game with a big win over the Giants. This could turn out to be a really entertaining game, with both teams keen to play a fast paced attacking style when they have control of the footy.
Jake Stringer and Stewart Crameri should return for the Dogs, but they might be without key midfielder Marcus Bontempelli, who has a sore adductor. Either way, the Power should get the job done at home, especially if they’re able to carry on their form from the second half last week.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Power by 1-39 @ $2.16 (PalmerBet)
Sunday, June 7
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GWS Giants vs Brisbane1:10PM AEST, Spotless Stadium |
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The Giants were very disappointing last week against the Dogs, never really presenting a legitimate challenge. They have a relatively easy task in their quest to rebound for a win this week, hosting the Brisbane Lions.
The Lions kicked the first 5 goals of the game last week against the Saints, and from that position, against the Saints and at home, they should have been able to secure a win. But they were thoroughly outplayed for the remainder of the contest. The Lions can play good football, as witnessed in their win over the Power, but they’re unable to do it often enough. The Giants have been much better for the most of the season, and should cruise through this one and record a comfortable victory.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Under 185.5 @ $1.91 (Bet365)
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North Melbourne vs West Coast3:20PM AEST, Blundstone Arena |
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This will be one of the more interesting games played this weekend. The Kangaroos are under immense scrutiny following a couple of poor losses, and they’ll also be without coach Brad Scott, who has just had back surgery. The Eagles on the other hand are under absolutely no pressure at all, having so far done much better than anyone expected them to.
The trip to Tasmania will definitely test the Eagles. Not only is it a long way to travel, but the conditions in Tassie are very different to those they’d be used to in Perth. The forecast is for showers, and I think this will favour the Kangaroos, who should have learnt a great deal about wet weather football from their last quarter against the Pies.
I expect they’ll be fired up and ready to prove a point. This is just the sort of game that the North Melbourne Football Club will win.
Betting tip: 2 units – Kangaroos to win @ $2.26 (PalmerBet)
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St Kilda vs Hawthorn4:40PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Saints host the Hawks under the roof at Etihad on Sunday afternoon. I’m not expecting much of interest to come out of this game, not unless any key Hawks throw their weight and/or fists around again. The Hawks should win by +10 goals.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Over 199.5 @ $2.10 (LuxBet)
Monday, June 8
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Melbourne vs Collingwood3:20PM AEST, MCG |
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I’m really looking forward to this year’s Queen’s Birthday clash, I’m confident it’s going to be a great game of footy. It will be a grand final of sorts for the Demons, and the Pies are still playing some good, entertaining footy.
I think the Dees could really give the Pies a run for their money on Monday. Collingwood might be a tad lethargic after their tough come-from-behind win over the Kangaroos, and you’d expect that Melbourne will be switched on right from the word go after their big loss last week. I still think the Pies are probably better placed to win, but wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dees got up.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Demons at the line of +20.5 @ $2.10 (Sportsbet)
Season Tally
Units Wagered: 60
Units Won: 56.47