AFL Round 16 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 16 of the 2015 AFL season.

Friday, July 17

North Melbourne vs Essendon 7:50PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

Last weekend these two clubs both bounced back from embarrassing losses from the week prior. But, they’ve both been disappointing over the season as a whole, and one win won’t go very far in making amends. The Kangaroos are still eyeing off a finals spot, while the Bombers are fighting for dignity and respect, and also perhaps for the job security of their senior coach. There’s a fair bit of history between these clubs, so what better game to make another big statement in? 

I’m tempted to say that the Kangaroos have more to lose than the Bombers, who are out of finals contention, but that would be underselling the importance of a proud club being able to keep the flicker of hope for the near future alive in the hearts of their supporters, supporters who have taken a battering over the past few years.

In all honesty, the Kangaroos should win this game easily, but they do have a habit of playing well one week and horribly the next. I don’t, however, expect them to be poor enough to let the Bombers get too close to them on Friday night.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Kangaroos by 25+ @ $1.86 (Centrebet)

Saturday, July 18

Geelong vs Western Bulldogs 1:45PM AEST, Simonds Stadium

 

The Dogs have now won 4 in a row to really cement their chances of an unlikely finals berth. They probably need 4 more wins to lock it in, which they should be able to manage. While this is probably the toughest task they’ve had for a while, the Cats aren’t playing all that well and they’ll be without skipper Joel Selwood after his chicken wing tackle last weekend. The Cats have dropped a few games at Skilled Stadium lately, which on the one hand means that they’re gettable, but it also means they’ll be desperate not to lose any more at their home fortress. 

I think the loss of Selwood will be massive and the Cats might find it hard to win enough ball out of the middle to get the job done. I’m going for the Dogs to have (another) season defining win.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dogs to win @ $2.46 (Matchbook)

Gold Coast vs GWS Giants 2:10PM AEST, Metricon Stadium

 

The battle of the new franchises is back again, and the Giants will go in confident after beating the Suns for the first time ever earlier this season. The Suns are playing better footy at this stage of the year than they were last time these teams met, and the Giants have probably dropped off a little. The loss of Dylan Shiel for the remainder of the season is obviously massive for them. He’s arguably their best player so others will have to step up and take on some of his workload, but he also does some special things that just can’t be replicated.

I still think the Giants should be able to get up. The Suns being without Charlie Dixon makes it much easier for the Giants to keep their forwards under wraps, and if that happens then they’ll win the general battle in the other areas of the ground.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Giants to win @ $1.91 (Centrebet)

Collingwood vs West Coast 4:35PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

Collingwood are in desperate need of a win. Three close losses in a row has taken them right back down into the sea of middle of the range clubs. It’s now sink or swim time. But they’ve got another big ask, facing up against the rampaging Eagles.

This game is really tough to pick considering it’s being played at Etihad. If in Perth, I’d be really comfortable tipping the Eagles, but being in Melbourne makes things very interesting. It’s a massive game for both clubs. The Eagles are looking to lock in a top four spot, while the Pies are trying to keep their top 8 spot safe, as well as the outside possibility of sneaking into the top four. 

The Eagles have done absolute nothing to make me doubt them or consider tipping against them, so I have to back them in again here.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Eagles by 25+ @ $3.10 (William Hill)

Sydney vs Hawthorn 7:20PM AEST, ANZ Stadium

 

A massive game on Saturday night. At this stage of the year I’m starting to become quite confident that this is going to be the eventual Grand Final match-up, just the same as last year. With the Dockers not providing the Hawks with enough resistance to qualify as premiership contenders, it will be interesting to see how the Swans go this weekend. Not so much to judge Freo, because they were definitely off their game last week, but maybe to judge the Hawks and see how far ahead of the pack they potentially are.

I’m expecting the Swans to amp themselves right up for this game and do everything they can to get one over the Hawks before the business end of the season starts.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Swans to win @ $2.45 (Centrebet)

Fremantle vs Carlton 7:40PM AEST, Patersons Stadium

 

The Dockers were horribly, horribly bad against the Hawks in Tassie. It really was a disgraceful performance and one you don’t expect to see from a side sitting on top of the ladder at this stage of the season. There didn’t seem to be any effort or intensity and that’s just not good enough. They’ve been off their game for quite a while now, but it’s just about time they start firing up again if they want to achieve anything serious this season. They’ll win this game either way, but their fans would be desperately hoping they do it in a fashion reminiscent of their opening 8 or so rounds of the season.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Dockers by 1-39 @ $2.55 (Sportsbet)

Sunday, July 19

Melbourne vs Brisbane 1:10PM AEST, MCG

 

The Lions are starting to get players back from injury, and starting to build into playing some good footy. It won’t be long before they cause a few big upsets. I reckon this game is a real 50/50 contest. It’s in Melbourne, but the Dees have been poor since the bye, and the Lions good but unable to run out the full four quarters. If they can do that, I’m backing them to beat the Dees, who I think are running out of steam and might struggle for the remainder of the season.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Lions to win @ $2.63 (Pinnacle)

Port Adelaide vs Adelaide 3:20PM AEST, Adelaide Oval

 

This is going to be one of the strangest showdowns in the history of football in Adelaide. Usually there is a clear hostility between fans as well as players, but this game will be very different. It will almost be a friendly, caring game of football, if there does indeed exist such a thing. It’s really hard to predict how the Crows are going to play for the rest of the season in the wake of the Phil Walsh tragedy. Some players will no doubt be down on form for many weeks, and you can’t blame them. 

I think Port will win, but I’m not 100% confident at all.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Power to win @ $1.69 (BetFair)

St Kilda vs Richmond 4:40PM AEST, Etihad Stadium

 

This is another game that will be full of emotion, being dedicated to Maddie Riewoldt. Hopefully Nick is right to play, and the two Riewoldt’s can do Maddie proud. 

In terms of the result, it should be a game that the Tigers win without too much stress. The Saints might be another one of the teams who are relatively young and running out of steam at this stage of the season. I don’t expect they’ll have the same ferocity that they had in games earlier on this year, and the Tigers should be able to take advantage and win fairly comfortably.

Betting tip: 1 unit – Tigers at the line of -23.5 @ $2.10 (Centrebet)