The following are previews with betting tips for AFL Round 18 of the 2015 AFL season.
Friday, July 31
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Hawthorn vs Richmond7:50PM AEST, MCG |
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The Tigers last weekend came very close to knocking off the ladder-leading Dockers for the second time this year, but coughed it up right at the death. As good as the Dockers have been, the Hawks are on another level and will be a much bigger challenge. Neither Freo nor Sydney were able to get within 10 goals of the Hawks in recent weeks, so are the Tigers actually a realistic chance here? The Hawks are in such rare form at the moment that even if the Tigers play out of their skins they’re likely to still lose by at least 5 goals.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Most Possessions – Jordan Lewis @ $4.65 (bet365)
Saturday, August 1
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Geelong vs Brisbane1:45PM AEST, Simonds Stadium |
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The Cats have struggled at times this year playing on their home deck, but this is a game they shouldn’t have too much difficultly in winning. The Lions still haven’t managed to string consistent footy together, and Geelong probably isn’t going to be the best place to foster that much needed growth in confidence.
In general, the Cats don’t absolutely crush teams even when they’re the much better team. They almost take the foot off the gas, preserve some energy, but make sure the job gets done. I’m predicting this will be that sort of game, and they’ll beat the Lions by 20-30 points.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Cats by 1-39 @ $2.50 (Palmerbet)
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Collingwood vs Melbourne2:10PM AEST, MCG |
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This will be a very interesting game of footy. The Pies welcome back important players in Adams, Elliott and Seedsman, which will bolster their midfield, forward line, and run from the back half, all obviously incredibly important aspects of the game. Both sides have been below par in the recent past and will be looking to turn that around this week. It’s a must win game for the Pies if they’re to keep dreaming of playing finals, while the Demons are playing for respect at this stage of the season. But not only respect, they’re also playing to keep their fans upbeat about the future. Jesse Hogan is going to be a star and that’s great, but they need to show continual signs of improvement in all areas of the ground if they’re eventually to be a well rounded footy team.
I’m thinking that this will be another scrappy contest, with the Demons forcing the game into a low scoring defensive battle but not being able to do enough damage on the scoreboard to take the four points.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Pies by 1-39 @ $2.10 (Betstar)
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Sydney vs Adelaide4:35PM AEST, SCG |
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This could be a huge game in the context of how the final top 8 will end up looking. The Crows are battling for a spot in the finals, and the Swans fighting to hold onto a spot in the top 4, and maybe even battling it out for a home final, as unlikely as that is. The Swans welcome back Buddy and Tippett, which should mean they’re able to score much more freely than they were last weekend. I feel like they’ll be up and about and ready to play a big game for their mate Adam Goodes, who has been the talk of not only the footballing world this week, but also the majority of the general public of Australia. Here’s hoping Goodesy doesn’t actually retire and comes back to add some more fantastic games of footy to his already ridiculously impressive career.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Swans to win @ $1.44 (LuxBet)
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Carlton vs North Melbourne7:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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After struggling for consistently in the first half of the season, the Kangaroos have been able to string three consecutive wins together, which has put them right back in the finals football frame. Their next three games, including this one, are against Carlton, Melbourne, and St Kilda. Win those three games, which they could, should and must, and they’re almost guaranteed to play finals. All they would have to do is win one of their remaining three games. They’ll know that, and they won’t be taking it easy against the Blues this weekend. I know they’ve struggled in games they’re expected to win, but I think at this stage of the season and with this much at stake, they’ll make sure they don’t succumb to another loss solely due to a lack of effort and application.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Kangaroos by 40+ @ $2.18 (Palmerbet)
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Gold Coast vs West Coast7:20PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Hawks are pressing hard, but West Coast don’t look like they’re going to be giving up that top 2 spot and corresponding home final easily. What it’s going to come down to is a massive game next weekend, when the two teams in question face off at Domain Stadium. The Hawks will win this weekend, and so will the Eagles, which means next weekend is almost the deciding game for a home final, which both sides will be desperate to claim. The Hawks won’t want to be travelling to Perth in the first week of finals, and the Eagles would equally love to stay at home and host a qualifying final. If the Eagles keep their focus on the task at hand this weekend, they’ll be able to win very comfortably and set up a massive contest for next weekend.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Eagles by 40+ @ $1.75 (Ladbrokes)
Sunday, August 2
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Port Adelaide vs St Kilda1:10PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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Port Adelaide won’t be playing finals this year, but they need to keep improving and building for an assault on next year. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming along in their rebuild very nicely, and at a much more rapid pace than many expected. After last weekend, it’s no big stretch to say that they’ve overtaken the Demons. They do, however, still have to deal with the imminent retirements of Nick Riewoldt, Leigh Montagna, Sam Fisher, etc., which will be another big challenge on the way to becoming a top team again. This game is a good test for them, with Riewoldt missing with calf soreness.
The Power should end up being too good for the Saints, especially with the game being played in Adelaide, but stranger things have happened this year. I’m tipping it might be a low scoring encounter, with possible showers predicted in Adelaide.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Total Match Points Under 178.50 @ $2.10 (UniBet)
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Essendon vs Western Bulldogs3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The majority of games for those teams in the 5-11 range of the ladder at this time of year are crucially important, especially the ones that really should be won. This classifies as one of those games for the Western Bulldogs. They’re closing in on an unlikely finals berth, but they still need 3 or 4 wins to make a certainty of it. A loss here and who knows what might happen. The very young team might start feeling the weight of expectation and struggle to play out the rest of the year at the same standard as they’ve played for the majority of it.
The Bombers seem to be slowly improving, led by some impressive youngsters. They’re still struggling for any real flow in their game and it might be quite a while until they build the confidence to play how they’d like to (i.e. after WADA verdict).
I’m expecting the Dogs to win this one but reckon it’ll be tight for most of the game.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Dogs by 1-39 @ $2.16 (UniBet)
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Fremantle vs GWS Giants4:40PM AEST, Patersons Stadium |
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The Dockers were relatively lucky last weekend not to go down to the Tigers for the second time this year. But that doesn’t really matter, what matters is they got the four points and can move on to this home clash against the Giants, who struggled to play on their own terms last week against the Cats.
Brownlow favourite Nat Fyfe has struggled in recent weeks with a sore quad, so the Dockers have decided to give him a rest and make sure he’s OK for the rest of the season. Will that give GWS a sneaky chance? Maybe if the game was being playing in Sydney, but being in Perth, I just can’t see the Giants causing the upset. Sure the loss of Fyfe is big, but they’ve got some other pretty decent midfielders capable of stepping up and causing the Giants enough headaches as it is.
Betting tip: 1 unit – Dockers by 1-39 @ $2.12 (Palmerbet)
Season Tally
Units Wagered: 123
Units Won: 111.43