A-League Round 11 Preview and Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for Round 11 of the 2015/16 A-League season.

Friday, 18 December

Newcastle Jets v Adelaide United 7:40 PM AEDT, Hunter Stadium

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Adelaide United will be gunning for a third straight win and a position on the doorstep of the top 6 when they face a spiraling Jets outfit. After a solid start by Scott Miller’s men and some outstanding performances by keeper Mark Birrighitti, the bubble burst on Saturday as Melbourne City ran out comfortable 4-0 winners at The Hunter. Newcastle had no answer for City’s devastating 30 minute onslaught on either side of the break as Aaron Mooy and Bruno Fornaroli each scored a brace. Adelaide United and Marcelo Carrusca struck with almost the last kick of the game to seal a potentially season-defining 2-1 win over 10-man Sydney FC. The Reds made heavy work of it despite their one man advantage as early as the 28th minute when November’s Young Player of the Month, Alex Gersbach, was sent off for a studs up challenge on Jimmy Jeggo.

Things are starting to look bleak for last season’s bottom club – you have to go back 7 fixtures for Newcastle’s last win, against Melbourne City in late October. In total contrast, Adelaide United and first season manager Guillermo Amor seem to have turned a corner with a string of wins and improved team selection; with the likes of Pablo Sanchez and Marcelo Carrusca reinstated into the first XI. Birrighitti was in fine form when he thwarted the Reds in a scoreless draw a little less than a month ago. You would imagine that Birraz will need to be in similar form if the Jets are to stand a chance.

Nick’s tip: Adelaide United 0ah @1.5 (Bet365)

 

Saturday, 19 December

Wellington Phoenix v Sydney FC 5:15 PM AEDT, Westpac Stadium

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Fifth versus sixth will kick off “Super Soccer Saturday” with 3 quality A-League fixtures to feast our eyes on. We live in hope anyway as these two sides played out a dour, stop-start scoreless draw just 3 weeks ago; on a night when Roly Bonevacia seemingly had a target on his back. Form wise, Wellington seem to have a slight edge despite wilting in the Cairns heat and humidity last week. The Nix gave as good as they got, in the 2-1 loss to Brisbane, for the best part of an hour until Roar’s superior conditioning and acclimatization became a factor. Roy Krishna’s lovely individual goal on the stroke of half-time gave the Nix a shot in the arm and they could quite easily have gone two ahead as the game became more stretched – but it was not to be. Sydney also suffered a 2-1 loss to a resurgent Adelaide United. The Sky Blues looked in total control at Coopers Stadium, shifting the ball about with confidence until a rush of blood to the head swung the pendulum by the way of the home side. Gersbach’s early sending off did spoil the game somewhat but Sydney hung tough; showing character to equalize via Filip Holosko’s well taken goal before Carrusca’s late penalty sealed their fate.

Wellington return to their natural home of Westpac Stadium which will be a relief to all concerned after the debacle that was the QBE Stadium surface a fortnight ago. The Nix are in solid home form with 3 straight wins against Brisbane, Adelaide United and Melbourne Victory, respectively. Sydney will hope
to have captain Alex Brosque back from a hamstring strain after missing out last week. It’s difficult to draw any definitive conclusions from Sydney’s form but in recent history, this fixture has favored the away side.

Nick’s tip:

 

Melbourne City v Melbourne Victory 7:30 PM AEDT, AAMI Park

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In perhaps the first time in their history City go into a Melbourne Derby as the bookie’s favorite, and with good reason too. Melbourne Victory are in their biggest slump in almost 3 years after the disappointing 1-0 loss in Perth marked three losses in succession. The reigning A-League champions showed little in the way of a response after Diego Castro put Glory one up with a quarter of an hour to go. Just minutes earlier, Barbarouses teed up Berisha beautifully but true to current form the misfiring Albanian crashed his shot onto the crossbar. Meanwhile, co-tenants Melbourne City continue to rise up the ladder in steamrolling fashion after the 4-0 demolition of Newcastle Jets. City have managed to score a massive 14 goals (conceding just two) in their last 3 outings with Aaron Mooy and odds on Golden Boot winner, Bruno Fornaroli, playing the starring roles.

Victory will hope that the return of club legend, Archie Thompson, will spark them into life after his lengthy absence on the sidelines. Fellow veteran, Matthieu Delpierre, is likely to go straight back into the starting XI (after being spared the trip to Perth) while there’s no such luck for Socceroo Carl Valeri who is out indefinitely after being diagnosed with an inflammatory brain condition. John van’t Schip will need to rejig his backline following the news that Connor Chapman suffered cruciate ligament damage against the Jets. With the Victory playing their third game in a space of 7 days, there will be a certain level of expectancy on Melbourne City to make all the running. If City can stay focused and continue their recent good form, then it’s difficult to see Victory getting a look in.

Nick’s tip: Melbourne City 0ah @1.89 (SBOBET)

 

Perth Glory v Western Sydney Wanderers 9:40 PM AEDT, nib Stadium

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Runaway league leaders, Western Sydney, are shooting for 8 straight wins as they fly out to the Wild West to take on perked up Perth. The Wanderers are in irresistible form at the moment and Tony Popovic should be commended for his side’s turnaround after a difficult start to the campaign. Their most recent win, a 2-0 defeat of Melbourne Victory, was highlighted by a blistering counter-attack started by right full-back Scott Neville and finished by the sharp shooting Mark Bridge; sliding home to break the deadlock. Aside from a flurry (from the visitors) midway through the first half, Western Sydney’s sturdy backline was rarely threatened. A week is a long time in football and so it has proved for Perth Glory. This time last week, Perth were sitting last on just 4pts with finals footy looking nothing more than a distant memory. Two wins later, coinciding with the news that Irish striker Andy Keogh has re-signed for the club (for the next 2 seasons) and a rejuvenated Perth are knocking on the door of the top 6.

With all 5 visa spots taken up at Perth Glory, Kenny Lowe must decide who to ship out in the January transfer window before Keogh can be utilized in a playing capacity. Going into this game, it is questionable as to whether Perth have the squad to deal with playing 3 games in a week. Saturday’s goal hero in the 2-1 win over the Mariners, Nebojsa Marinkovic, was substituted in midweek with a hamstring strain and remains doubtful. Aside from Dario Vidosic, Western Sydney has a clean bill of health as they look to stretch their lead at the top of the pile. Complacency is Western Sydney’s worst enemy; if they can guard against it then they should have too much quality for the home side.

Nick’s tip: Perth -0.75ah @2.4 (SBOBET)

 

Sunday, 20 December

Central Coast Mariners v Brisbane Roar 5:00 PM AEDT, Central Coast Stadium

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The Mariners are at serious risk of been cast adrift from the rest of the competition as they host 2nd placed Brisbane Roar. With just one win and 5pts (four behind improving Adelaide United), Neil Walmsley has his hands full in trying to get a mostly inexperienced squad believing that they belong at this level. The recent 2-1 loss in Perth was by no means a disaster as Irishman, Roy O’Donovan, gave the Mariners a deserving lead going into the break. Speedster, Mitch Austin, was proving a real handful down the left wing so it was a surprise to most when he was replaced on the hour mark by Josh Bingham. Perth then proceeded to score two goals in the space of 4 minutes. Coincidence or not, it was a truly bizarre substitution by Walmsley which most probably costed his side a point, at least. Brisbane rebounded strongly from the loss to Western Sydney, a fortnight ago, by defeating Wellington 2-1. In what was an open contest, the Roar overran their opponents who perhaps were caught out by the humid conditions. No one can deny that Brisbane deserved to win the game as Jamie MacLaren eventually slotted one passed Glen Moss (after missing a succession of golden opportunities) to give his side a priceless 3 points.

Brisbane will feel confident of making it 5 straight wins against the Mariners as they travel to Gosford. Central Coast will get their chances but their defence does remain the weakest in the division with 23 conceded in 10 games. Brisbane are yet to really dominate an opponent this season but they could get their chance here before embarking on a difficult run of fixtures.

Nick’s tip: