The following are previews with betting tips for Round 5 of the 2016 AFL season.
View and compare bookmaker odds for this round.
Friday, April 22
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Hawthorn v Adelaide7:50PM AEST, MCG |
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Round 5 kicks off in style, with the reigning champs hosting one of the form teams of the competition at the home of football. The Hawks aren’t at the peak of their powers, but they’re 3-1, and are only going to get better as the year progresses and they welcome some stars back from injury – starting with skipper Luke Hodge on Friday night.
The Crows are arguably the form team of the competition and will go into this contest with the utmost confidence of matching it with the Hawks and sneaking a win. If it’s another close game, it’ll be interesting to see whether three close finishes in a row weighs the Hawks down – either mentally or physically – and they struggle late in the game, or, on the other hand, if they’re getting a taste for giving fans and tipsters heart palpitations and are prepared to get the job done yet again. I reckon it’ll be close for most of the game but the Hawks might run away with it towards the end, saving themselves some stress in the dying seconds.
Betting tip: Hawthorn by 25+ @ $2.25 (William Hill)
Saturday, April 23
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Sydney v West Coast1:40PM AEST, SCG |
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Speaking of kicking off in style, this should be a fantastic battle – there’s every chance the next time these clubs meet again it will be late in September. The Swans are looking like a lock for a top four spot, and the Eagles, considering they’ll win 95% of their home games, should be there as well. Which makes winning a game like this one all the more crucial, as the winner will go one up on their opponent in the race to secure a home final.
The Eagles have been a little patchy to start the year off, but at their best they’re still an incredibly good footy side. I reckon it will be a close finish, but you’ve got to lean towards the Swans on the basis of their stronger recent form, as well as the fact that it’s at the SCG. The Eagles love the wide Subiaco Oval; let’s see how they fare on the smaller SCG.
Betting tip: Sydney to win @ $1.70 (CrownBet)
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Gold Coast v North Melbourne4:35PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Suns really disappointed me last weekend; those are the type of games they need to win if they’re to make their maiden finals appearance. To be fair, the Lions were very good, and if not for poor goal kicking would have won by a much bigger margin. The Kangaroos at Metricon Stadium provides a perfect opportunity for them to bounce back. They’re up against the only side yet to drop a game, so they’ll clearly need to be close to their best to get a win, but being at Metricon I reckon they’ll go close. I know it’s a silly saying, but I’ve got a feeling the Kangaroos are ‘due for a loss’ – and I reckon it’ll either be this week, or next week against the Dogs. The loss of Steven May may prove telling against the Kangaroos’ tall forward set up in what should be a close game.
Betting tip: Gold Coast at the line of +20.5 @ $1.97 (Ladbrokes)
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Western Bulldogs v Brisbane7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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Ouch. The Dogs have copped some seriously bad luck on the injury front these past two weeks. First they lose captain Bob for the year, and then Jason Johannisen, arguably the form player of the competition, to a high grade hamstring tear for at least 10 weeks. The kicker being that Bob and JJ both play that same role off the half back line – so now we’ll get to see how good the Dogs’ depth really is. They have a handy player in Easton Wood – the reigning B&F – to welcome back, which should offset some of the pain. But this game won’t be as simple as Dogs’ fans may have imagined a few short weeks ago.
As previously mentioned, the Lions were very good against the Suns, and are not even close to being the worst team in the competition. If they can get their radar right when kicking for goal, they’ll be in it up to their manes on Saturday night. I’m still expecting the Dogs to get the four points, but don’t be surprised if it turns out to be a very, very close contest.
Betting tip: Brisbane at the line of +43.5 @ $2.01 (Pinnacle)
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Port Adelaide v Geelong7:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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It’s hard to fathom exactly what’s happened at Alberton. Two years ago they nearly won a premiership, now they’re playing like a bottom four team – with pretty much the exact same list. Ken Hinkley – after being rightly lauded as a coaching genius at the end of his second year in charge – is now under serious pressure to find answers and turn things around. There’s none of that intense pressure and run that made them such a dangerous team in 2014, so you’ve got to question the attitude and efforts of the playing group.
They’ve been whacked fairly heavily in the media this week; we’ll wait and see if that has any effect on them. Let’s hope it does, otherwise the Cats will give them another shellacking. And that’s taking into account the fact the Cats have struggled to get going since their Round 1 triumph over the Hawks.
Betting tip: Geelong to win @ $1.73 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, April 24
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St Kilda v GWS Giants1:10PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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This is going to be a fascinating contest. Both clubs are coming in on the back of some good form, but have also lost at least one game they should have won. Jeremy Cameron’s return is obviously massive for the Giants, and I’m expecting him to have an immediate impact. The Saints have been good the past two weeks, but I reckon the game down in Tassie may have them slightly sapped of energy this weekend, and the Giants are good enough to take advantage of that. Young teams also go through peaks and troughs over the course of a year, and I reckon this weekend might be an up for the Giants and a down for the Saints.
Betting tip: Giants to win @ $1.63 (BetFair)
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Fremantle v Carlton4:10PM AEST, Subiaco Oval |
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‘Finally, a win’ is what Ross Lyon and his Dockers will be thinking on their way to Subiaco on Sunday afternoon. They were better last week against the Kangaroos, but are still a shadow of their former selves, so they’ll be desperate to get a win against the Blues and take that momentum into the rest of the season.
The Blues probably aren’t good enough to capitalise on a weakened opponent, as other teams before them have, but they’ll go in wanting to give the Dockers a real run for their money. In the end the Dockers will probably win by 4-6 goals, but I reckon it’ll be relatively close until the last quarter.
Betting tip: Carlton at the line of +39.5 @ $1.95 (Marathon Bet)
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Melbourne v Richmond7:10PM AEST, MCG |
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The future is becoming brighter by the day for the Demons, while the clouds are beginning to gather over Punt Road. Can the Dees break their two-in-a-row hoodoo and consign the Tigers to even more pain? It’s definitely not out of the question, but the way they’ve backed up solid wins in the recent past doesn’t instil you with confidence.
Considering the form the Tigers are in at the moment I’m really hesitant to tip them, but on the other hand backing the Demons is always a bit of a gamble, which makes for a tough decision. I know I’m going to regret this, but I like the way the Demons have played the last two weeks and, so as long as they’re able to play like that again, they’ll be good enough to beat the Tigers. Deledio and Maric are expected to return, but I’m not sure how much impact they’ll have in their first hit out of the year.
Betting tip: Melbourne to win @ $2.20 (PalmerBet)
Monday, April 25
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Collingwood v Essendon3:20PM AEST, MCG |
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These two clubs have been forced to back up their credentials for owning the ANZAC day game after some light hearted ribbing from the footy public – now it’s on them to deliver a spectacle deserving of the big stage. In all likelihood, it’s probably not going to be pretty. Neither club is playing highly skilled footy at the moment, but that doesn’t mean they can’t fight out an epic contest. The Pies are under considerably more pressure than the Bombers at the moment, and they absolutely cannot afford to lose this ANZAC day clash. The Bombers are tenacious – especially when they get a slight scent of victory, as they did against the Demons – and will make them work for it, but I reckon the Pies are safe here.
Betting tip: Collingwood by 25+ @ $2.20 (bet365)
Best Bets of the Round
Hawthorn by 25+ @ $2.25 (William Hill)
Season Tally
All Bets: +3.71 units
Best Bets: +1.58 units
(Assuming 1 unit per bet)