The following are previews with betting tips for Round 9 of the 2016 AFL season.
View and compare bookmaker odds for this round
View the form guide for this round
Friday, May 20
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Hawthorn v Sydney7:50PM AEST, MCG |
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For obvious reasons, this is going to be a highly emotional game of football. Jarryd Roughead is one of football’s most loved figures, and news that his cancer has returned will cast a dark shadow over the entire season – but will no doubt be felt most heavily this weekend. The Hawks are clearly going to find it difficult to concentrate 100% on their football, and it’ll be understandable if they don’t seem all there on Friday night. Buddy Franklin and a few of the other Swans will also be struggling with the news.
But Roughy’s great mates will also feel the need to go out and perform well for him. That’s exactly what he’d want them to do, and they’ll know it. It’s times like these that put footy into perspective, but the players of both clubs still have a job to do, and this is an important game to win in the context of the season.
In what I expect will be a heated contest, whichever team is able to keep their focus for the majority of the game will win. I’m thinking the Hawks will bond together as a group and pledge to get the win for big Roughy.
Betting tip: Hawthorn to win @ $1.63 (Marathon Bet)
Saturday, May 21
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Collingwood v Geelong1:45PM AEST, MCG |
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Collingwood are a confusing football club this season. They’ve played some absolutely horrendous footy at times, and other weeks they’ve played brilliantly. They’ve belted both the Bombers and the Lions, who are both bottom four teams of course, but the fashion in which they’ve done it suggests they should’ve been much more competitive in games against St Kilda, Melbourne and Carlton.
The coaches and supporters will be frustrated at the inconsistency, but this weekend presents a great opportunity to starting patching things up. The Cats are currently one of the form sides in the competition – as witnessed in their win over the Crows in Adelaide – and will punish the Pies if they’re off the boil. The Cats will win either way, it’s just a question of margin.
Betting tip: Geelong by 25+ @ $1.53 (Sportsbet)
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Gold Coast v Adelaide2:10PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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After a couple of tough assignments, the Crows get an opportunity to bank four points against the lacklustre Suns. The Suns’ average losing margin over the past three weeks is a staggering 95 points. Those sorts of numbers are just not sustainable for more than a handful of weeks. They need to do something about turning it around quick smart, otherwise the future is looking very bleak up on the Gold Coast.
It’s not going to get any easier, with captain Gary Ablett ruled out with concussion, and Adam Saad, Touk Miller and Aaron Hall all out with various niggles. This is going to be another week from hell for the injury riddled Suns. The Crows will feast on their remains.
Betting tip: Adelaide by 40+ @ $1.40 (Palmerbet)
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Port Adelaide v West Coast4:35PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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In the lead up to last weekend, the general consensus regarding Port Adelaide’s start to the season went something like this: ‘They’ve played well below expectation so far, yet they’re likely to be 5-3. Not bad for a side playing relatively poorly.’
Well, the Blues well and truly burst that bubble. They’re still playing poorly, and if they can’t bank four points against teams like Carlton, they’re definitely not playing finals – even if they are still a respectable 4-4. Their wins have come against Essendon, St Kilda, Brisbane and a poor Richmond outfit. Not a great form line.
The Eagles continue to bully other teams who venture over to Perth. This week gives them an easy chance to break their travelling hoodoo. They absolutely must beat the Power, otherwise their premiership credentials are just about shot.
Betting tip: Eagles to win @ $1.43 (Pinnacle)
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North Melbourne v Carlton7:25PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Kangaroos have won yet another game of footy, unconvincingly, yes, but when you’re sitting unbeaten on top of the ladder, it doesn’t particularly matter how convincing you are; 8-0 speaks for itself. They’re setting themselves up for a top four finish, but – with a tough draw in the second half of the year – they need to continue to capitalise in the games they should win. This one might not be as simple as previously thought.
The Blues, somewhat unfathomably, have now won four in a row, and look like they’ll continue being competitive week in, week out, even if at times they lack some polish. The Blues will push North Melbourne, but I don’t think they’ll be quite good enough to extend their winning streak against the top-of-the-table Kangaroos.
Betting tip: North Melbourne to win @ $1.25 (Pinnacle)
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Fremantle v Richmond7:40PM AEST, Subiaco Oval |
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The Tigers were half-buried in the 2016 AFL graveyard with a few minutes to go in the last quarter on Saturday night. Sam Lloyd somehow managed to dig them out, but they’re still in a precarious situation. They’ll be hoping that game is a turning point in their season, because they still need to improve a whole lot if they’re a chance of playing finals.
And this contest will teach us a bit about them. If they haven’t improved, there’s every chance they become the Dockers’ first victim in 2016. Even with the Dockers struggling, a trip to Perth is never easy, and the Tigers will need to play well to get the four points. I reckon this will go right down to the wire, but the Tigers, who have much more to play for, should be good enough, and desperate enough, to get over the line in the end.
Betting tip: Richmond to win @ $1.80 (CrownBet)
Sunday, May 22
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Melbourne v Brisbane1:10PM AEST, MCG |
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After a week when all of the ‘senior coaching pressure’ was on Collingwood coach Nathan Buckley, the Pies managed to seamlessly shift all of that to the Lions – specifically coach Justin Leppitsch – in one quick, sharp demolition job. As a senior coach, you can’t afford too many efforts like that. To lose by 78 points at home against a team that is also battling is not good enough. It’s embarrassing, to be frank. I’d be incredibly surprised if they beat the Demons at the MCG, but they’ll need to at least put up a spirited, four-quarter display to go some way towards making amends.
The Demons, while beaten fairly comfortably by the Dogs, weren’t too bad against the Dogs, and will beat the Lions easily as long as they bring the same effort and intensity. It’s a game they may have dropped last year, but they’re a stronger, more mature outfit in 2016.
Betting tip: Melbourne by 25+ @ $1.50 (UniBet)
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GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs3:20PM AEST, Spotless Stadium |
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Along with the Hawthorn v Sydney game, this is clearly one of the biggest games of the round. Similar to the Friday night contest, it’s between two clubs that are currently 6-2 and vying for a top four position. In other words, it’s a massive game for both clubs involved. The Giants are flying and look every bit a contender, while the Dogs continue to get by, despite having massive injury concerns in the defensive half. Add the suspensions of veteran Matthew Boyd and key target Jack Redpath to the injury list and the Dogs are in a spot of bother for this weekend. They’ve still got a strong midfield which will keep them right in the contest and may even give them a sniff of an upset, but the Giants should be able to take advantage at either end of the ground to take another big scalp and continue on their merry way.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs at the line of +26.5 @ $1.65 (William Hill)
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St Kilda v Essendon4:40PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Saints are again stuck in the Sunday twilight zone, but they’ll be hoping for a very different result this weekend. They were bullied by the Eagles and weren’t able to put up much of a fight against a team that is admittedly very hard to stop when on a roll at home. The Bombers at Etihad is obviously much more in line with the Saints’ comfort zone. They’ll win, and win comfortably. I’m sure the Saints’ leaders will have them up and about after a draining loss to the Eagles, making sure they don’t let slip a giant opportunity to grab four points and give their fans something to cheer about in what is still a year of rebuilding.
Betting tip: St Kilda by 25+ @ $1.63 (LuxBet)
Best Bets of the Round
Adelaide by 40+ @ $1.40 (Palmerbet)
Melbourne by 25+ @ $1.50 (UniBet)
St Kilda by 25+ @ $1.63 (LuxBet)
Season Tally
All Bets: +5.34 units
Best Bets: -3.02 units