Super Rugby Round 13 Preview & Betting Tips

The following are previews with betting tips for Round 13 of the 2016 Super Rugby season.

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Friday, 20 May

Crusaders v Waratahs

The Crusaders’ eight-game winning streak came to an end last week with a hard fought loss to the classy Highlanders in Dunedin. It was a high quality match, with the Crusaders being made to pay for some missed first up tackles. There shouldn’t be too many concerns over the loss, with the Crusaders’ performance in that defeat easily good enough to beat most teams.

The Waratahs enter this fixture on a four-game winning streak after they defeated the Bulls 31-8 in Sydney last week. Last week’s victory came at a heavy loss, however, with Kurtley Beale ruled out for the rest of the season with a knee injury. The Waratahs have a dreadful record in Christchurch and no Australian team has won on New Zealand soil this season so they will be up against it this weekend. In team news, Zac Guildford has recovered from a broken toe and returns this week via the bench. David Horwitz replaces Beale at inside centre.

Head-to-head pick: Crusaders
Line pick: Crusaders -11.0

Betting: the Waratahs have a strong record against the Crusaders in recent years however the Crusaders bring stronger form into this fixture. I also think the Waratahs will be weaker in Kurtley Beale’s absence. I would back the Crusaders -6.5 at 1.55 (William Hill).

Saturday, 21 May

Reds v Sunwolves

The Reds worked hard but fell short against the depleted Hurricanes last week, with the 14-29 scoreline a bit harsh on the Queensland side. They continue to put in a good effort each week but currently lack the x-factor to do much damage on offence. This week provides an excellent opportunity for them to return to winning ways, however. They remain undefeated at home against foreign opponents this season and should be too strong for the Sunwolves, who have struggled against Australian sides.

The Sunwolves continue a pattern of being competitive against South African teams after they drew 17-17 with the Stormers in Singapore last week. They have been thrashed by the Rebels and Force, however, and based on their poor away form I don’t expect an upset this weekend.

Head-to-head pick: Reds
Line pick: Reds -17.0

Betting: the Reds have been strong at home in recent months while the Sunwolves have had a torrid time against Australian teams so far this season. I would back the Reds 13+ at 1.65 (Pinnacle Sports).

Chiefs v Rebels

In my Round 11 preview I wrote that the Chiefs were due a defeat and they promptly delivered, losing 13-26 to the Highlanders prior to their bye last week. The defeat snapped a seven-game winning streak but the Chiefs had looked beatable in the three fixtures leading up to it. Handling errors and poor passing let them down but that performance was still arguably strong enough to beat a team like the Rebels. In team news, Charlie Ngatai is out this week with a concussion.

The Rebels put in a strong performance last week but still fell short, losing 22-30 in their vital clash against the Brumbies. Given Jack Debreczeni’s inconsistent form with the boot, they will be hoping that Mike Harris can take over the kicking duties again soon as he works his way back to full fitness. With the Rebels sitting 13 pints behind the Hurricanes in the race for a playoff spot, their best chance of securing playoff rugby is to win the Australian conference, but with the Brumbies’ soft schedule to see off the end of the season I don’t see that happening. In team news, winger Cam Crawford will miss the rest of the season with a broken wrist.

Head-to-head pick: Chiefs
Line pick: Rebels +16.5

Betting: the Chiefs have been below their best in recent weeks, but they have a strong record on the back of a defeat and they’ve had a bye week to get back to basics. I expect them to bounce back with a strong performance this week so I would back the Chiefs -8.5 at 1.40 (Sportsbet).

Force v Blues

Prior to their bye last week the Force snapped a seven-game losing streak by beating the Sunwolves 40-22 in Toyko. The win puts them just two points behind the Reds in their bid to avoid the Australian conference wooden spoon.

After picking up a rare away win against the Kings, it was business as usual as the Blues put in a dreadful performance in their 5-43 loss to the Lions. They looked clueless at times and while they are a mathematical chance of making the playoffs, I cannot see them making a playoff run, especially in light of the departure of the Ioane brothers to the NZ Sevens team and Rene Ranger’s season-ending injury.

Head-to-head pick: Force
Line pick: Force +4.5

Betting: the Force are 0-4 against New Zealand sides this season but the Blues have a poor away record and last week they were dreadful. Perth, however, is a venue that seemingly everyone likes to visit, with the Force losing their last eight straight at home. I simply don’t know what to expect from this game so I will sit this one out.

Lions v Jaguares

Last week the Lions rebounded from their 17-50 home defeat to the Hurricanes with a classy performance to see off the Blues 43-5. It’s hard to read much into that performance given how bad the Blues were, but to their credit the Lions were clinical with the ball and solid in defence. They have a two point lead over the Sharks in the Africa 2 conference with a game in hand over the Durban side, so the Lions remain in a strong position to make the playoffs.

The Jaguares have suffered yet another close home defeat after losing to the Sharks 22-25. Their three home defeats have all been by 4 points or less, so they’re not far off from turning their stadium in Buenos Aires into a fortress. The Jaguares’ away form has been quite a different story, however, although they did leave ten quality players at home for their previous tour. With the June internationals coming up they can afford to tour with a stronger squad, so I expect them to be more of a handful than they were on their previous four-game tour. Poor discipline has been a headache for the Jaguares during the week. Captain Agustin Creevy has been suspended for a week for foul play while back-rower Leonardo Senatore has received a 10-week ban for a biting incident against the Sharks.

Head-to-head pick: Lions
Line pick: Jaguares +13.5

Betting: the Jaguares have been poor on the road this season so I would back the Lions -6.5 at 1.40 (Sportsbet).

Sunday, 22 May

Sharks v Kings

A last minute penalty saw the Sharks defeat the Jaguares in Argentina last week to maintain the pressure on the Lions in the Africa 2 conference. After a mid-season stumble the Sharks are building good momentum and with captain Pat Lambie back from injury, they should finish the season strongly.

The Kings put up a stronger fight than expected but still fell 20-34 to the Cheetahs last week to slide to 1-9 for the season. They now sit 5 points behind the Sunwolves in the race to avoid the wooden spoon. It has become more than apparent that South Africa has one more side in the competition than it deserves.

Head-to-head pick: Sharks
Line pick: Kings +30.5

Betting: the Kings are 0-4 on the road this season but are 3-1 at the line away from home. With the team sheets not yet released at the time of writing it’s hard to make a call on this one. Presuming that the Kings go close to full strength I would back the Kings +30.5 at 1.93 (SBOBET), however if they rotate players (as they did in their mauling against the Jaguares) then I would be inclined to take the Sharks at the line.

Bulls v Stormers

After a promising start to their tour the Bulls have slumped to two defeats to the Brumbies and Waratahs, with the Pretoria side unable to reach double digits in either game. They must now regroup for a massive clash that could determine the winner of the Africa 1 conference. Due to the bombastic playoff structure, as things stand the winner of the conference would receive the 3rd overall seed while the second placed side would miss out on the playoffs entirely.

After defeating the Sunwolves 46-19 in Cape Town in Round 7, the Stormers escaped Singapore with a 17-17 draw thanks to a last minute converted try. The disappointing result means the Bulls sit just three points behind them in the Africa 1 conference, so the Stormers’ poor showing in Singapore could prove costly at the tail end of the season. In team news, Juan de Jongh is out with a hamstring injury but is expected back next week.

Head-to-head pick: Stormers
Line pick: Stormers +1.5

Betting: the Bulls are a streaky team, with a 4-1-1 record on the back of a win and a 1-5 record on the back of a loss over the last 12 months. The Stormers meanwhile are at their most dangerous on the back of a defeat, and last week’s draw would have felt like one. I’m leaning towards the Stormers in the head-to-head, but given how much is on the line I expect this to be a lower scoring, nervy affair. I would back both the Bulls 1-12 at 3.10 () and the Stormers 1-12 at 3.10 ().

 

Best Bets of the Round

Back the Crusaders -6.5 at 1.55 (William Hill)

Back the Reds 13+ at 1.65 (Pinnacle Sports)