The following are previews with betting tips for Round 11 of the 2016 AFL season.
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View the form guide for this round
Friday, June 3
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North Melbourne v Richmond7:50PM AEST, Blundstone Arena |
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The Kangaroos finally succumbed to their first loss of the 2016 season last Friday night. Dropping that one to fellow premiership rivals Sydney might actually be good for them in the long run, as they’ll know they still have plenty of work to do, and it should help keep any complacency at bay. They’ll need to bounce back to overcome a determined Tigers side that have now won three in a row and are starting to look like the side most thought would be finals certainties.
The Tigers aren’t without a chance if they play at their absolute best, but I expect North will be too strong for them. Richmond have generally travelled well in recent history but even so, they’d be a much greater chance if this one was at the MCG. Kangaroos to get it done by a few goals in what will likely be an arm wrestle all night.
Betting tip: Kangaroos to win @ $1.53 (Marathon Bet)
Saturday, June 4
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Hawthorn v Melbourne1:45PM AEST, MCG |
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The Hawks struggled to dispatch of a persistent Lions outfit last week, but in the end their class came to the fore and they won with ease. I’m sure the Demons wish they could’ve done a similar thing in their clash with Port. Unfortunately for them things went in the opposite direction, with the Power dominating the last quarter to blow them away, resulting in a very disappointing day in Alice Springs for the Dees. Compounding the loss was a hand injury to in-form midfielder Jack Viney.
That loss will be offset by the good-news-story return of ex-skipper Jack Trengove, who will make his first senior appearance in over two years. Chris Dawes will also make a much anticipated return to the field, and they’ll welcome back gun first year midfielder Clayton Oliver to face the Hawks as well. Good inclusions, but the loss of Viney removes any chance they had of an upset win over the reigning premiers. The Hawks should be able to win fairly comfortably and move to 8-3, which is impressive considering they haven’t hit anything close to peak form so far.
Betting tip: Hawthorn to win @ $1.21 (BetFair)
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Carlton v Brisbane2:10PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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No skipper, no worries. The Blues continued to shock the footy world by defeating the Cats at Etihad on Sunday afternoon, without captain Marc Murphy for almost the entire match. It was a stunning performance, and one that will no doubt go down as one of their finest moments in 2016. There have already been quite a few memorable moments – and there will be many more considering the way they’re going – but this one was special. Without the captain, against a genuinely good opposition. Brendan Bolton is very clearly on the right track with his coaching blueprint.
Murphy being out makes this one become a more difficult proposition, but after watching the Blues dismantle the Cats without him last week, I wouldn’t think the Lions would pose a much greater threat. It might be a tough contest, but at home I’d expect the Blues to go onwards and upwards to 6-5. I must admit, it feels strange writing that.
Betting tip: Carlton to win @ $1.33 (Pinnacle)
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Geelong v GWS Giants4:35PM AEST, Simonds Stadium |
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This is a massive game. There are currently five clubs with seven wins, and the Cats and Giants are two of them. These two have already played each other once this season, with the Cats going down to GWS by 23 points back in Round 2. That game was in Canberra, this one in Geelong. It’ll be the first time Stevie J ventures back there as a Giant, and that alone will be worth the price of admission.
But it’s also going to be a ripping game of footy. The Giants play a great brand of footy, and the Cats obviously can as well, but they’ve been right off the boil the last two weeks. Can they rediscover some of the magic? If not, the Giants have beaten them once and are more than capable of doing it again. But surely the Cats can’t play that poorly again? Surely not in front of their home crowd at Simonds Stadium? I’m fairly sure it won’t happen, so I’m backing the Cats in to make amends for a couple of really head-scratching performances.
Betting tip: Geelong to win @ $1.53 (BetFair)
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Gold Coast v Sydney7:25PM AEST, Metricon Stadium |
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The Suns continue to shuffle through their list, making six changes to the side set to face the Swans this week. It’s not ideal, but when you’ve got countless injured and underperforming players, there’s not really any alternative. It’s going to be an incredibly long season for the Suns, who will continue to regularly lose games of footy by over ten goals. They’re in a real spot of bother, but it’s pointless going over that again. They’ll just have to continue turning their list over and trying to unearth a few players who will make them a better team. Coming up against arguably the best side in the competition doesn’t help. The Swans aren’t known for burying weaker opponents, but they’ll still beat the Suns by a very, very large margin.
Betting tip: Sydney by 40+ @ $2.05 (Ladbrokes)
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Fremantle v Essendon7:40PM AEST, Subiaco Oval |
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What a strange season of footy we’re having. The Dockers have not won a single game after 10 rounds. In other words, they’re 0 – 10. Winless. No wins, ten losses. But they’re $1.30 favourites to win in Round 11. Strange times indeed. But they probably will win. It’s not going to be pretty, but the Dockers should be able to overpower the Bombers at home and finally sneak in their first win of the year. And if they can’t, then maybe there is something to all this talk of tanking. I’m sure the players are getting desperate for a win and they’ll know that this is one of the best chances they’re going to get. They won’t waste it.
Betting tip: Fremantle to win @ $1.30 (Pinnacle)
Sunday, June 5
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Collingwood v Port Adelaide1:10PM AEST, MCG |
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The Pies were gallant in their 21 point loss to the Bulldogs on Sunday afternoon, with injuries forcing them to play the game out without a single player left on the bench. The injuries will hurt for obvious reasons, not least because they looked liked they were going to run all over the top of the Dogs, who ending up rallying late and taking advantage of their injured opponent. It was a brave effort, but it didn’t get them four points.
They’re now left with some holes to fill – mainly up forward – but luckily they’ve got the big fella Trav Cloke waiting in the wings for his chance. He’ll come in and be desperate to capitalise on his opportunities, but the pressure and scrutiny of the AFL world will be on him, and that doesn’t seem to be a conducive environment for producing his best form.
It’s a really difficult game to tip, but with the Pies being at home, if they bring the same level of intensity as they did last week, I’m sure they’ll beat the Power. Injuries withstanding, of course.
Betting tip: Collingwood to win $2.16 (Marathon Bet)
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Western Bulldogs v West Coast3:20PM AEST, Etihad Stadium |
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The Dogs were really quite poor for most of their game against Collingwood last weekend. They were lucky to get over the line; I’m sure they’ll be grateful for snatching the points and getting away with a win. You’re not going to be in-form all season, so it’s important to be able to just scrap through and get some ugly wins when you’re not at your best, and that’s what the Dogs did.
They’ll need to do better against the Eagles, or they’re headed for a big loss. West Coast have copped it for being poor away from home, so they’ll no doubt be up and about for this challenge against a fellow top eight side. The Dogs are back at their favoured ground and we know they’re very hard to beat under the roof. I’m expecting that’s what will ultimately tell the story in this contest. In Perth, the Eagles win handsomely, at Etihad, the Dogs are probably too slick for the Eagles. It promises to be a really entertaining game of footy either way.
Betting tip: Western Bulldogs to win @ $1.82 (Bet365)
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Adelaide v St Kilda4:40PM AEST, Adelaide Oval |
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The final game of Round 10 has the Saints heading over to Adelaide to take on the Crows. As the Giants found out last week, the Crows are very tough to beat at home this year. Only the very best teams are going to be up for the challenge. And even then, the Swans couldn’t do it; the Cats are the only team to get the points against the Crows over there so far. So the Saints really aren’t much of a chance. But they were solid against the Dockers last weekend, taking their season tally to a respectable 4-6, which is about where they should be. Next week they get a shot at the Blues, and then the bye. A respectable loss here and then a win over the resurgent Blues would give the Saints enough to feel really good about heading into the mid-season break.
Betting tip: Adelaide by 25+ @ $1.63 (LuxBet)
Best Bets of the Round
Adelaide by 25+ @ $1.63 (LuxBet)
Season Tally
All Bets: +7.34 units
Best Bets: -1.39 units