2016 State of Origin – Game 2 Preview & Betting Tips

The following is a betting preview with tips for Game 2 of the 2016 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions and competitions are also listed.

2016 State of Origin Schedule

Each game will be televised live on Nine.

Game 1 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
News South Wales 4-6 Queensland
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
Referees: Gerard Sutton & Ben Cummins

Game 2 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 22 June 2016
Referees: Gerard Sutton & Ben Cummins

Game 3 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 13 July 2016

Game 1 Recap

A Johnathan Thurston penalty goal proved to be the difference as Queensland prevailed 6-4 after a hard slog, with neither side scoring in the second half. The Blues had been optimistic leading into the clash, but they failed to take their opportunities and Queensland’s decision to opt for a penalty goal early in the game proved to be a masterstroke.

Recent State of Origin History

Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.

Home advantage has been historically important, with New South Wales holding a 14-1-8 record in Sydney while Queensland are 16-6 in Brisbane since 2000. NSW have won four of their last seven at ANZ Stadium while Queensland have won seven of their last eight at Suncorp Stadium.

2016 State of Origin Game 2 Squads

Queensland

1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker

Interchange: 14. Michael Morgan, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Josh Papalii, 18th man. Ethan Lowe

The Maroons have made one change for Game 2 with the injured Nate Myles replaced by Josh McGuire. Warriors forward Jacob Lillyman has been added to the interchange with Ethan Lowe the new 18th man.

New South Wales

1. Matt Moylan, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Dylan Walker, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. James Maloney, 7. Adam Reynolds, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. James Tamou, 15. Greg Bird, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Paul Gallen

Interchange: 14. Jack Bird, 18. Tyson Frizell, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita

Wade Graham was originally selected to replace the injured Boyd Cordner but Graham has since been suspended. As a result Greg Bird has been moved into the starting lineup with Tyson Frizell added to the interchange. On Saturday Josh Morris was ruled out with injury so Dylan Walker gets the start with Jack Bird promoted to the bench and Bryce Cartwright the new 18th man.

Coach Laurie Daley will be feeling the heat this week. As reported by the SBS, the Blues under Daley have averaged just 10 points per game since 2014 with NSW greats Andrew Johns and Phil Gould critical of Daley’s attacking game plans. While Daley is contracted to the end of 2017, only Craig Bellamy has survived back-to-back series defeats as Blues coach.

Suncorp Stadium History

Fixtures at Suncorp Stadium Stadium tend to have higher total scores and wider winning margins than at ANZ Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 40.1 in Brisbane compared to 31.6 in Sydney. During this time, 9 games were won by 1-12 points and 13 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 18 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.

Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 15 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less during this time, compared to seven 1-12 results and eight 13+ results in Brisbane.

Game 2 History

Between 2000 and 2015, the Maroons have won Game 1 in Sydney on just two occasions. They won by 4 points in 2010 and by 1 point in 2015. In 2010 Queensland then went onto win Game 2 by 28 points in Brisbane. In 2015 Game 2 was held in Melbourne, where NSW won 26-18 before being mauled 52-6 by Queensland in Brisbane in Game 3.

On the two occasions that NSW won Game 1 in Brisbane they went on to win Game 2 in Sydney.

In all, when a side has won Game 1 in enemy territory with the second game played at home, they have gone 3-0 in the head-to-head in Game 2.

Bookmaker Odds Comparison

You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section. Game 2 odds and markets can be viewed here.

At the time of writing the best head-to-head odds for Queensland are 1.55 with CrownBet while the best odds for New South Wales are 2.66 with Palmerbet.

Given Queensland have won 7 of their last 8 in Brisbane, plus the strong record of home teams that won Game 1 in enemy territory, the 1.55 odds on the Maroons in the head-to-head market represents good value.

Over/Under Betting

Most bookmakers have set an over/under mark of 34.5, with some opting for 35.5.

Fixtures in Brisbane have had much higher total scores than in Sydney, with an average score of 38.5 at Suncorp Stadium since 2005, compared to 28.3 at ANZ Stadium.

Since 2000, the average Game 2 score in Brisbane has been 37.1, however two of the last three fixtures have had totals at or below 32.

Based on this it’s hard to make a strong betting recommendation in the over/under market.

Winning Margin Betting

When Queensland win at home, it tends to either be by a small margin or by a huge margin. Of their 16 wins at home since 2000, 6 were by 8 points or less while 9 were by 18 points or more. Only once has Queensland’s winning margin fallen between 9 and 17 points.

NSW have also won by bigger margins in Brisbane, with 5 of their last 6 wins at this venue being by 12 or more points. They’ve only won once in Brisbane since 2010, however, and that was by 4 points.

At the time of writing the best available margin odds were:
QLD By 1-12 – 2.75 (Sportsbet)
NSW By 1-12 – 3.60 (bet365)
QLD By 13+ – 3.75 (Palmerbet)
NSW By 13+ – 9.50 (Luxbet)
Draw 17.0 – 21.0 (bet365)

Given 5 of Queensland’s last 8 wins at Suncorp Stadium have been by 20 points or more, if I had to bet on this market I would take Queensland 13+ at 3.75.

King of Origin Free Tipping Comp

CrownBet have launched a free King of Origin tipping competition for this year’s Origin series.

The competition is free to enter and there are $200,000 worth of Crown Rewards points up for grabs. No deposit is required.

To participate, you make picks for the following categories:
– the winning team
– first player to reach 100 meters
– most tackles
– most fantasy points

For each category you are given two selections to choose from. You simply have to pick the most likely winner. The winner(s) of the competition will be all participants that make correct picks in all four categories. The winners will share equally in the total value of the prize for that game. If any of the Categories results in a draw both selections will be considered correct.

There are effectively three separate competitions in line with the NRL State of Origin Series on the following dates:
– Game 1: June 1, 2016
– Game 2: June 22, 2016
– Game 3: July 13, 2016

20 Million Crownbet Rewards points will be awarded across the 3 State of Origin matches as follows:
– Game 1: 5,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
– Game 2: 5,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
– Game 3: 10,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points

Learn more about the King of Origin tipping competition