Euro 2016 – Round of 16 – Preview and Betting Tips

The following a previews with betting tips for the Round of 16 in Euro 2016.

Schedule

The following dates and times are AEST.

Switzerland v Poland – Sat Jun 25 – 11.00pm – St-Etienne
Wales v Northern Ireland – Sun Jun 26 – 2.00am – Paris
Croatia v Portugal – Sun Jun 26 – 5.00am – Lens
France v Rep. Ireland – Sun Jun 26 – 11.00pm – Lyon
Germany v Slovakia – Mon Jun 27 – 2.00am – Lille
Hungary v Belgium – Mon Jun 27 – 5.00am – Toulouse
Italy v Spain – Tue Jun 28 – 2.00am – St-Denis
England v Iceland – Tue Jun 28 – 5.00am – Nice

Knockout Bracket

Below is the Euro 2016 knockout bracket (source: CBS Sports).

The right side of the draw looks tougher on paper, particularly given Italy have to play Spain in the Round of 16. Croatia look well placed on the left hand side of the draw, while Belgium will also feel they have an excellent chance of making the semi-finals.

Tournament Winner Odds

Below are the tournament winner odds at the time of writing. bet365 odds are shown because they will refund your bet if your side loses on penalties (England, cough…). There is no bet limit that we’re aware of for this promotion.

The Belgium squads boasts an immense amount of talent and they have landed in a soft section of the draw. Despite this they haven’t received much love from bookmakers, who still have them as the 4th favourite to win the tournament. Given their location in the draw the 7.00 odds for Belgium to win the tournament (bet365) look to be reasonable value.

The following previews are in order of the tournament schedule. Odds will likely change leading up to kickoff. View the latest Euro 2016 odds.

Switzerland v Poland Sat Jun 25 – 11.00pm AEST – St-Etienne

Switzerland brought indifferent form into the tournament but managed to progress out of Group A in 2nd place behind France.

Poland finished 2nd in Group C on goal difference behind Germany. They scored a whopping 33 goals in qualifying but only found the back of the net twice in the Group Stage. Impressively, Poland have yet to concede a goal this tournament.

Switzerland and Poland have been defensively sound so far this tournament, with the former conceding only one goal in the Group stage and the latter keeping three clean sheets. Offensively each side has only scored twice, with neither side finding the back of the net more than once in a game. With that in mind I expect this to be a low scoring fixture.

Back Under 2.5 goals at 1.40 (Intertops)

Wales v Northern Ireland Sun Jun 26 – 2.00am AEST – Paris

Wales topped Group B ahead of England and have been rewarded with an easier draw in the knockout stage. They have a trump card in Gareth Bale and they find themselves in the rare position of being the favourite to win a Euro 2016 fixture.

Northern Ireland finished 3rd in Group C behind Germany and Poland, with all of their points coming from their 2-0 win over Ukraine. Defensively they’ve only conceded two goals this tournament, with neither Germany or Poland able to find the back of the net more than once against them.

I’m leaning towards Wales to win this in a low scoring affair. I’m predicting a 1-0 scoreline so rather than back Gareth Bale or Aaron Ramsey in the “To Score” market, I will take my chances of each of them in the “1st Goalscorer” market instead.

Back Gareth Bale in the 1st Goalscorer market at 4.50 (Sportsbet)
Back Aaron Ramsey in the 1st Goalscorer market at 9.00 (Sportsbet)

Croatia v Portugal Sun Jun 26 – 5.00am AEST – Lens

Croatia were the pick of many pundits as the dark horse of the tournament and they have lived up to that by winning Group D, beating Spain 2-1 along the way.

Portugal qualified for the Final 16 after drawing all three Group stage games. Cristiano Ronaldo has looked frustrated this tournament but he did find the back of the net twice in their final group stage game against Hungary.

If you lean on longer-term form you would have to side with Portugal, however based on very recent form Croatia have looked more impressive. Also, leading into the tournament Croatia had lost only 1 of their last 13 games and 2 of their last 18 since the 2014 World Cup, so they have been a tough nut to crack.

Back Croatia in the Draw No Bet market at 1.82 (TopBetta)

France v Rep. Ireland Sun Jun 26 – 11.00pm AEST – Lyon

It took a few late goals to do so, but France topped Group A as was heavily expected, however their form thus far hasn’t lived up to the pre-tournament hype.

Ireland qualified for the knockout stage as the 3rd placed team in Group E, behind Italy and Belgium. The tournament schedule was kind to them, with the side facing Italy when their opponents had nothing to play for. Nevertheless any win while keeping a clean sheet against Italy is impressive.

France have yet to score a goal in the first half this tournament while Ireland have yet to conceded in the first half. A 0-0 halftime score wouldn’t surprise me.

Back under 1.00 in the Half-time Totals Over/Under market at 1.50 (TopBetta)
(a push if exactly 1 goal is scored)

Germany v Slovakia Mon Jun 27 – 2.00am AEST – Lille

Germany topped Group C ahead of Poland based on goal difference, with both sides going 2-1-0. Germany brought indifferent form into the competition but they boast a fantastic Euro and World Cup record so they must always be respected.

Slovakia finished third in Group B behind Wales and England, with their win over Russia and 0-0 result against England enough to see them through. Slovakia beat Germany in a friendly leading up to the tournament and since November 2013 they boast a 18-5-4 record, so this isn’t as simple a fixture as appears on paper.

If Slovakia park the bus against Germany as they did against England then they will be a tough side to break down. As a neutral though I’m hoping they back themselves a bit more and go for the win. I’m not sure Slovakia will have enough to beat Germany but based on recent form I don’t see them getting blown away.

Back Slovakia +1.5 in the Asian Handicap market at 1.62 (SBOBET)

Hungary v Belgium Mon Jun 27 – 5.00am AEST – Toulouse

Hungary were the surprise winners of Group F with a 3-3 win against Portugal sealing the result. They have a decent record against weaker sides, but apart from their win over the out-of-sorts Austria, you have to go back to 2012 for the last time they beat a side ranked inside the top 20 in the world.

Belgium finished 2nd in Group E behind Italy. They were dreadful in their first clash against the Italians, but have put their campaign back on track with wins over Ireland and Sweden. Ironically, they now face an easier draw on paper than the Italians in the knockout stage.

Back Belgium in the head-to-head at 1.67 (Matchbook)

Italy v Spain Tue Jun 28 – 2.00am AEST – St-Denis

Italy topped Group E ahead of Belgium and have been “rewarded” with a fixture against Spain, while Belgium take on Hungary. They have only conceded one goal this tournament, and that was in the clash against Ireland when Italy had nothing to play for.

Spain finished 2nd in Group D behind Croatia. They now face a difficult path to the final, but this side has only lost once in their last 14 games and will still back themselves to win a third consecutive Euro title.

This clash is a replay of the 2012 Euro final, which Spain won 4-0. I fancy their chances to win again on Tuesday, but I am wary of the famed Italian defence, which will bring the 0-0 draw into play. The two sides played in the quarter-finals of the 2008 Euros, which Spain won on penalties after the fixture ended a goalless draw.

Back Spain in the Draw No Bet market at 1.436 (Pinnacle)

England v Iceland Tue Jun 28 – 5.00am AEST – Nice

England finished 2nd in Group B behind Wales after Roy Hodgson opted to make a raft of changes for their third game against Slovakia, which ended 0-0. They dominated the qualifying tournament, finishing 10-0-0 with 31 goals scored and only 3 conceded, so England will be disappointed by their 1-2-0 record in the group stage.

Minnows Iceland have been one of the surprises of the tournament, finishing 2nd in Group F behind Hungary and ahead of Portugal. Their population is a little over 330,000, so a sizable proportion of the country will be in Nice this week!

England have a bad habit of being knocked out of tournaments on penalties. In fact the last three times they have made the knockout stage of the Euro tournament they have been eliminated in a penalty shoot out. For this reason the prospect of a draw against Iceland would be a scary one. I expect them to come out and attack, with Iceland parking the bus and playing either for a draw or for a winning goal against the run of play. England should win this but the 1.53 odds look to be a fraction short. I expect them to dominate possession but they’ve struggled to convert it into goals this tournament.

Back Under 2.25 Goals at 1.67 (SBOBET)