The following is a betting preview with betting tips for Game 3 of the 2016 State of Origin Series. Origin betting promotions and competitions are also listed.
While the series is already secured for another year, the Maroons will be keen to send Corey Parker off on a high after he announced his retirement at the end of 2016. Likewise, the Blues will be hoping that Paul Gallen’s Origin career ends on a high.
2016 State of Origin Schedule
Each game will be televised live on Nine.
Game 1 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
News South Wales 4-6 Queensland
Wednesday, 1 June 2016
Referees: Gerard Sutton & Ben Cummins
Game 2 – Brisbane – Suncorp Stadium
Queensland 26-16 News South Wales
Wednesday, 22 June 2016
Referees: Gerard Sutton & Ben Cummins
Game 3 – Sydney – ANZ Stadium
8:15 PM
Wednesday, 13 July 2016
Referees: Gerard Sutton & Ben Cummins
Game 1 Recap
A Johnathan Thurston penalty goal proved to be the difference as Queensland prevailed 6-4 after a hard slog, with neither side scoring in the second half. The Blues had been optimistic leading into the clash, but they failed to take their opportunities and Queensland’s decision to opt for a penalty goal early on proved to be a masterstroke.
Game 2 Recap
In a much more entertaining fixture, Queensland wrapped up their 10th series victory in 11 years on the back of a Dane Gagai hat-trick. Coming into the game the Blues had come under fire for only scoring 10.2 points per game under coach Laurie Daley. They responded by playing more expansively, but once again Queensland seemed to have all the answers. The Blues were also their own enemy at times by conceding cheap penalties. On a positive note for NSW, Jack Bird and Tyson Frizell had promising debuts.
Recent State of Origin History
Below are the State of Origin results since 2000. The background shading donates the game location while the text colour denotes the game winner.
| Year | Winner | W | L | D | Game 1 | Game 2 | Game 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2000 | NSW | 3 | 0 | 0 | NSW 20-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 56-6 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2001 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 34-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 26-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 40-14 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2002 | QLD | 1 | 1 | 1 | NSW 32-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-18 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2003 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 12-25 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 27-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 36-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2004 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 9-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 22-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 34-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2005 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 24-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 32-22 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 10-32 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2006 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 17-16 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 14-16 QLD (Melbourne) |
| 2007 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 25-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 4-18 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2008 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 18-10 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 30-0 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-16 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2009 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 28-18 NSW (Melbourne) |
NSW 14-24 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 16-28 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2010 | QLD | 3 | 0 | 0 | NSW 24-28 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-23 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2011 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 16-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 18-8 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 34-24 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2012 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 10-18 QLD (Melbourne) |
NSW 16-12 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 21-20 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2013 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 14-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 10-12 QLD (Sydney) |
| 2014 | NSW | 2 | 1 | 0 | QLD 8-12 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW 6-4 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 32-8 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2015 | QLD | 2 | 1 | 0 | NSW 10-11 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 18-26 NSW (Melbourne) |
QLD 52-6 NSW (Brisbane) |
| 2016 | QLD | 2 | 0 | 0 | NSW 4-6 QLD (Sydney) |
QLD 26-16 NSW (Brisbane) |
NSW vs. QLD (Sydney) |
Home advantage has been historically important. New South Wales hold a 14-1-8 record in Sydney while Queensland are 17-6 in Brisbane since 2000. NSW have won four of their last seven at ANZ Stadium while Queensland have won eight of their last nine at Suncorp Stadium.
2016 State of Origin Game 3 Squads
New South Wales
1. James Tedesco, 2. Blake Ferguson, 3. Michael Jennings, 4. Josh Dugan, 5. Josh Mansour, 6. Jack Bird, 7. James Maloney, 8. Aaron Woods, 9. Robbie Farah, 10. Paul Gallen (c), 11. Wade Graham, 12. Josh Jackson, 13. Tyson Frizell.
Interchange: 14. Matt Moylan, 15. James Tamou, 16. David Klemmer, 17. Andrew Fifita
The Blues have made a raft of changes for Game 3. James Tedesco has been given the nod at fullback at the expense of Matt Moylan while Wade Graham gets his first start after being suspended during Game 2. Adam Reynolds was originally selected to play at halfback but had to withdraw due to injury. James Maloney has shifted from five-eighth to halfback with Jack Bird promoted from the bench to five-eighth and Matt Moylan recalled into the squad to join the bench. Josh Dugan returns from injury to make his first appearance of the series at the expense of Dylan Walker.
Queensland
1. Darius Boyd, 2. Corey Oates, 3. Greg Inglis, 4. Justin O’Neill, 5. Dane Gagai, 6. Johnathan Thurston, 7. Cooper Cronk, 8. Matt Scott, 9. Cameron Smith (c), 10. Josh McGuire, 11. Matt Gillett, 12. Sam Thaiday, 13. Corey Parker
Interchange: 14. Nate Myles, 15. Jacob Lillyman, 16. Aidan Guerra, 17. Gavin Cooper
The Maroons have named an unchanged starting line-up for Game 3. Nate Myles has been added to the bench after missing Game 2 with injury, with the injured Michael Morgan dropping out of the side. To complete an all forwards bench, Gavin Cooper is poised to make his debut after being added at the expense of Josh Papalii.
ANZ Stadium History
Fixtures at ANZ Stadium tend to have lower total scores and narrower winning margins than at Suncorp Stadium Stadium. Since 2000, the average total score is 40.2 in Brisbane compared to 31.6 in Sydney. During this time, 10 games were won by 1-12 points and 13 games were won by 13+ points in Brisbane. In contrast, 18 games were won by 1-12 points and just 5 games were won by 13+ points in Sydney.
Since 2005 the disparity has grown even larger, with all 15 games in Sydney won by 12 points or less during this time, compared to eight 1-12 results and eight 13+ results in Brisbane.
Game 3 History
Between 2000 and 2015, the State of Origin series was already sewn up by Game 3 on six occasions. Of those six occasions, only twice did the winner of Games 1 & 2 go on to win Game 3.
When the loser of Games 1 & 2 hosted Game 3, they won the dead rubber in two out of three occasions.
Bookmaker Odds Comparison
You can compare up-to-date bookmaker odds across numerous State of Origin markets in the bookmaker odds section. Game 3 odds and markets can be viewed here.
Head-to-head Betting
At the time of writing the best head-to-head odds for New South Wales are are 1.92 with a range of bookmakers, while Unibet are currently a standout, offering 2.05 odds on Queensland, compared to 1.92-1.98 with most other bookmakers.
Given the strong historical Game 3 record of the losers of Games 1 & 2, the 1.92 odds on New South Wales in the head-to-head market represent good value.
Over/Under Betting
Bookmakers have set over/under marks between 36.5 (bet365, Palmerbet, William Hill) and 37.5 (Sportsbet, Unibet, Luxbet).
The last three Game 3 fixtures in Sydney ended with total scores of 26 (2008), 41 (2010) and 22 (2013). The average total score for Game 3 fixtures in Sydney is 35 since 2002 and 29.7 since 2008.
Based on this I’m inclined to take under 37.5 in the over/under market.
Winning Margin Betting
At the time of writing the best available margin odds were:
NSW By 1-12 – 2.90 (Palmerbet)
QLD By 1-12 – 3.10 (bet365)
NSW By 13+ – 5.50 (Betstar)
QLD By 13+ – 3.75 (Unibet)
Draw 17.0 – 21.0 (bet365)
You have to go back to 2004 for the last time either team won by more than 10 points in Sydney, while only one of Queensland’s last eight wins in Sydney have been by more than 6 points.
Based on these historical winning margins trends I recommend following winning margin selections:
NSW 1-12 at 2.90 (Palmerbet)
QLD 1-6 at 5.50 (Sportsbet)
Since 2005 the above pair of selections has won in 14 out of 15 State of Origin fixtures in Sydney.
King of Origin Free Tipping Comp
CrownBet have launched a free King of Origin tipping competition for this year’s Origin series.
The competition is free to enter and there are $200,000 worth of Crown Rewards points up for grabs. No deposit is required.
To participate, you make picks for the following categories:
– the winning team
– first player to reach 100 meters
– most tackles
– most fantasy points
For each category you are given two selections to choose from. You simply have to pick the most likely winner. The winner(s) of the competition will be all participants that make correct picks in all four categories. The winners will share equally in the total value of the prize for that game. If any of the Categories results in a draw both selections will be considered correct.
There are effectively three separate competitions in line with the NRL State of Origin Series on the following dates:
– Game 1: June 1, 2016
– Game 2: June 22, 2016
– Game 3: July 13, 2016
20 Million Crownbet Rewards points will be awarded across the 3 State of Origin matches as follows:
– Game 1: 5,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
– Game 2: 5,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
– Game 3: 10,000,000 CrownBet Rewards Points
Learn more about the King of Origin tipping competition