A new Poisson Distribution analysis tool is available for the English Premier League and A-League on our sister site AusSportsTipping.com.
The tool applies the approach outlined by the Pinnacle article on the model’s application to soccer betting. It applies the Poisson Distribution to historical data to calculate the likely number of goals that will be scored in a football game. The model calculates the probability of every score combination and uses them to derive fair odds for popular betting markets.
To use the model, select the home team and away team, then choose the time-frame over which the Poisson Distribution is calculated. The tool will then provide league stats, team stats, match outcome probabilities & their associated fair odds, plus correct score probabilities and their associated fair odds.
Note that this tool relies solely on historical data. It doesn’t account for injury news or any other situational information, but nevertheless it does yield interesting results that do match up well with expectation.
View the tool in action for the EPL
View the tool in action for the A-League
Poisson Distribution Analysis
Below is some sample output for the hypothetical fixture Arsenal vs. Bournemouth.
League stats:
| Average Home Goals | Average Away Goals |
|---|---|
| 1.4921 | 1.2079 |
Team stats:
| Attacking Strength | Defensive Strength | Expected Goals | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 1.0935 | 0.4793 | 1.8992 |
| Bournemouth | 0.9586 | 1.1640 | 0.5550 |
The following are match outcome probabilities predicted by the Poisson distribution.
| Head to Head | Proabability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 69.68% | 1.44 |
| Draw | 20.34% | 4.92 |
| Bournemouth | 9.98% | 10.02 |
| Both Teams to Score | Proabability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 36.22% | 2.76 |
| No | 63.78% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under | Proabability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 0.5 | 91.41% | 1.09 |
| Under 0.5 | 8.59% | 11.64 |
| Over 1.5 | 70.32% | 1.42 |
| Under 1.5 | 29.68% | 3.37 |
| Over 2.5 | 44.44% | 2.25 |
| Under 2.5 | 55.56% | 1.80 |
| Over 3.5 | 23.27% | 4.30 |
| Under 3.5 | 76.73% | 1.30 |
| Clean Sheet | Proabability | Fair Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Arsenal: Yes | 57.41% | 1.74 |
| Arsenal: No | 42.59% | 2.35 |
| Bournemouth: Yes | 14.97% | 6.68 |
| Bournemouth: No | 85.03% | 1.18 |
Correct score fair odds and their associated probabilities:
| Bournemouth (away team) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | ||
| Arsenal (home team) |
0 | 11.64 8.59% |
20.97 4.77% |
75.56 1.32% |
408 0.24% |
2,944 0.03% |
26,523 0.00% |
| 1 | 6.13 16.32% |
11.04 9.06% |
39.79 2.51% |
215 0.46% |
1,550 0.06% |
13,965 0.01% |
|
| 2 | 6.45 15.50% |
11.63 8.60% |
41.90 2.39% |
226 0.44% |
1,632 0.06% |
14,707 0.01% |
|
| 3 | 10.19 9.81% |
18.37 5.45% |
66.18 1.51% |
358 0.28% |
2,579 0.04% |
23,231 0.00% |
|
| 4 | 21.47 4.66% |
38.68 2.59% |
139 0.72% |
754 0.13% |
5,431 0.02% |
48,928 0.00% |
|
| 5 | 56.52 1.77% |
102 0.98% |
367 0.27% |
1,984 0.05% |
14,298 0.01% |
128,812 0.00% |
|