With the Rio 2016 Olympics kicking off in just a few days, we have surveyed various medal tally projections to assist you with medal tally betting. The data sources are Gracenote, the Associated Press and Sports Illustrated.
Olympics betting has come a long way in recent years. Most bookmakers this year offer various medal tally markets as well as winner markets for virtually every event.
This article will focus on gold medal tally predictions for Australia.
Gracenote
Sports data provider Gracenote has projected the following table.
| Rank | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 41 | 23 | 28 | 92 |
| 2 | China | 31 | 26 | 24 | 81 |
| 3 | Russia | 20 | 23 | 20 | 63 |
| 4 | Great Britain | 18 | 16 | 17 | 51 |
| 5 | Germany | 16 | 16 | 18 | 50 |
| 6 | Australia | 16 | 13 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Japan | 14 | 10 | 14 | 38 |
| 8 | France | 12 | 17 | 18 | 47 |
| 9 | Korea | 10 | 5 | 10 | 25 |
| 10 | Brazil | 8 | 9 | 3 | 20 |
| 11 | Kenya | 8 | 5 | 3 | 16 |
| 12 | New Zealand | 7 | 11 | 7 | 25 |
| 13 | Netherlands | 7 | 9 | 10 | 26 |
| 14 | Cuba | 7 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
For those who are looking to back individual Australians, Gracenote have predicted the following gold medals for Australia (source: Fox Sports):
Caroline Buchanan (BMX)
Jessica Fox (Canoe/Slalom K1)
Men’s team pursuit (cycling)
Men’s hockey team
Men’s four (rowing)
Kim Brennan (rowing)
Mathew Belcher/Will Ryan (sailing – 470)
Tom Burton (sailing – laser)
Women’s rugby sevens team
Warren Potent (shooting)
Mitch Larkin x 2 (swimming, 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm x 2 (swimming, 100m backstroke, 200m backstroke)
Cameron McEvoy (swimming, 100m freestyle)
Cate Campbell (swimming, 100m freestyle)
Bronte Campbell (50m freestyle, swimming)
Women’s 4x100m freestyle relay team
Associated Press
The Associated Press have published a full list of medal predictions. We’ve made an attempt to generate a medal tally from their predictions and have arrived at the following:
| Rank | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 53 | 35 | 43 | 131 |
| 2 | China | 31 | 24 | 23 | 78 |
| 3 | Great Britain | 22 | 17 | 18 | 57 |
| 4 | Australia | 14 | 19 | 10 | 43 |
| 5 | Russia | 14 | 10 | 12 | 36 |
| 6 | Japan | 12 | 8 | 15 | 35 |
| 7 | France | 11 | 11 | 18 | 40 |
| 8 | Brazil | 11 | 7 | 11 | 29 |
| 9 | New Zealand | 11 | 5 | 7 | 23 |
| 10 | Germany | 10 | 21 | 16 | 47 |
| 11 | South Korea | 8 | 4 | 7 | 19 |
| 12 | Cuba | 7 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 13 | Netherlands | 6 | 8 | 11 | 25 |
| 14 | Kenya | 5 | 7 | 7 | 19 |
They have predicted gold for Australia in the following disciplines:
Jared Tallent (50k walk)
Sam Willoughby (Men’s BMX)
Caroline Buchanan (Women’s BMX)
Men’s field hockey
Rowing – men’s quadruple sculls
Kimberley Brennan (single sculls)
Mathew Belcher-William Ryan (sailing – 470)
James Willett (shooting – double trap)
Mitch Larkin (men’s 200m backstroke)
Cate Campbell (women’s 100m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 100m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 200m backstroke)
4×100 freestyle relay
4×100 medley relay
Sports Illustrated
Sports Illustrated have also published a complete list of expected winners of each event.
| Rank | Country | Gold | Silver | Bronze | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U.S. | 45 | 34 | 39 | 118 |
| 2 | China | 45 | 25 | 15 | 85 |
| 3 | Australia | 20 | 21 | 9 | 50 |
| 4 | Great Britain | 16 | 20 | 17 | 53 |
| 5 | France | 15 | 10 | 14 | 39 |
| 6 | Russia | 14 | 16 | 29 | 59 |
| 7 | Germany | 14 | 13 | 20 | 47 |
| 8 | Japan | 13 | 7 | 14 | 34 |
| 9 | South Korea | 10 | 11 | 10 | 31 |
| 10 | Netherlands | 4 | 11 | 7 | 22 |
They have predicted gold for Australia in the following disciplines:
Matthew Glaetzer (cycling – sprint)
Cycling – team pursuit
Anna Meares (cycling – Keirin)
Caroline Buchanan (BMX)
Men’s field hockey
Rowing – men’s quadruple sculls
Kim Brennan (rowing – single sculls)
Rowing – women’s quadruple sculls
Women’s rugby sevens
Cameron McEvoy (swimming – 100m freestyle)
Mack Horton (swimming – 400m freestyle)
Mitch Larkin (swimming – 100m backstroke)
Mitch Larkin (swimming – 200m backstroke)
Cate Campbell (swimming – 50m freestyle)
Cate Campbell (swimming – 100m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (swimming – 100m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm (swimming 200m backstroke)
Madeline Groves (swimming – 200m butterfly)
Swimming – 4 × 100m women’s freestyle relay
Swimming – 4 × 100m women’s medley relay
Pooled Results – Australia’s Gold Medals
Two out of the three sources have predicted Australia will win gold in the following disciplines:
Cameron McEvoy (swimming, 100m freestyle)
Women’s rugby sevens
Mitch Larkin (swimming – 100m backstroke)
Men’s team pursuit (cycling)
Swimming – women’s 4×100m medley relay
Rowing – men’s quadruple sculls
Mathew Belcher/Will Ryan (sailing – 470)
All three sources have predicted Australia will win gold in the following disciplines:
Caroline Buchanan (BMX)
Cate Campbell (swimming – women’s 100m freestyle)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 100m backstroke)
Emily Seebohm (women’s 200m backstroke)
Mitch Larkin (men’s 200m backstroke)
Men’s field hockey
Swimming – women’s 4x100m freestyle relay
Kim Brennan (rowing – single sculls)
These lists are useful for those looking to take advantage of CrownBet’s Olympics promotion (see the Promotions section for further details).
You can compare the latest bookmaker odds for Olympics event betting in the Bookmaker Odds Comparison section.
Pooled Results – Over/under Medal Betting
Luxbet have set the following over/under marks for Australia’s gold medal count:
Over 12.5+ 1.33
Under 12.5- 3.30
Over 14.5+ 2.00
Under 14.5- 1.80
Over 16.5+ 3.50
Under 16.5- 1.30
Other bookmaker totals for Australia’s gold medals are:
William Hill:
Over (13.5) 1.75
Under (13.5) 2.00
Sportsbet:
Over (13.5) 1.75
Under (13.5) 2.00
Unibet:
Over (13.5) 1.67
Under (13.5) 2.10
Pinnacle:
Over (12.5): 1.369
Under (12.5): 3.150
It seems there’s a major jump in odds between 12.5 and 13.5. For exact gold medal betting, the shortest odds are for 14, 15 and 16 golds, which are each at 7.00 odds with both Luxbet and Palmerbet.
At least two of the three sources agree on gold for Australia in 15 events, with individual projected tallies of 14, 16 and 20. In addition at least once source has predicted Australia will win gold in another 14 events.
Based on this we’d be inclined to take over 13.5 at 1.75 with either William Hill or Sportsbet.