The following are betting comments on the Round 3 English Premier League fixtures. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Futures Market
I think Spurs are the value pick for the title, 3rd last season, not much change in the team and decent odds of 15. With the title race so open this season there will be a lot of teams cancelling each other out and given that scenario really any one of 6 teams can win it. That means the value is on the highest priced. That’s the way I see it anyway.
Match Comments
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Tottenham v Liverpool |
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A great match to start the weekend fixtures, Tottenham look to be the value selection here with value showing on both the overall and similar opposition stats. Spurs are also the value pick in the Asian Handicap market with a -0.25 start.
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Chelsea v Burnley |
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Odds of 15 for a side that just beat Liverpool 2-0 look very tempting here and the stats back this up with both data sets pointing to a lot of value in backing the away side. Indeed Chelsea’s rolling season record contains only 6 home wins from 19 games. Two caveats here would be that Burnley away are an unknown entity at this stage of the season and Chelsea do look like a changed team under Conte.
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Crystal Palace v Bournemouth |
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An early bottom of the table clash sees Palace desperate for a win in 2016. You certainly wouldn’t be paid enough in the odds if you were to go down this route. Bournemouth’s price however is in clear value territory. Their away record is good but its Palace’s home form that really decides the value here. A 61% away win rate at Selhurst Park vs similar opposition will see to that.
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Everton v Stoke |
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For commentary on this game you could flip back to the Palace v Bournemouth game. The stats are almost identical with the away side showing some good value although Stoke are better priced than Bournemouth at 5.50.
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Leicester v Swansea |
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Mixed stats and a lack of games for Leicester against grade 3 opposition probably make this a game to avoid. Having said that the Asian Handicap results show a heavy skew for a home win of some sort (full or half)
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Southampton v Sunderland |
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Not sure that Southampton are the team they were and being so early on in the season, it looks like the betting markets have Southampton too short at 1.66. That’s what the stats suggest with Southampton not winning anywhere near the 60% of games required to justify the odds.
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Watford v Arsenal |
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There’s always value with high priced home teams. This game, however doesn’t have enough in it to warrant a value opportunity. The stats are mixed and it’s Watford’s dreadful record to the top teams that puts Arsenal in value territory, when looking at similar games, even at the low price of 1.80.
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Hull v Man United |
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Here is a game where the high priced home team does show value. You’d be a brave man to bet against Man Utd at the moment but the stats suggest there is value backing Hull at 8.40. The betting markets have assigned a 12% chance for the home win. The home team have a 37% and 19% chance according to the overall stats and similar opposition stats respectively.
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West Brom v Middlesbrough |
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With Middlesborough being the only promoted side with no recent EPL history there isn’t much to go on here. Both sets of data suggest an away win is the value option but the signal is weak.
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Man City v West Ham |
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West Ham have a decent away record and won this fixture last season. So its no surprise to see West Ham as the value option. Contrarian betting is hard, especially when the value suggests betting against a revamped Man City side with arguably the best manager in the league.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.