The following are betting comments for Round 5 of the 2016-17 English Premier League season. These have been sourced and published with permission from Valuesportsbetting’s weekly form guide.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.
Match Comments
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Chelsea vs Liverpool |
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A big game to kick off the fixture list and there are mixed signals in terms of value. The overall record states no value for Chelsea but the similar opposition stats place value with the home team. Recent head to heads have seen Liverpool gain the upper hand and in the Asian Handicap the stats are slightly favouring Chelsea. All up this is a difficult game to analyse with no hard trends to grab hold of.
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Hull vs Arsenal |
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There’s actually some value with Arsenal here thanks to their superb record against 4th grade teams and an 81% win rate (equivalent to 1.23 in odds). Also interesting is Arsenals strength in the Asian Handicap market where they have bee given a 1 goal start. Arsenal need to win by two clear goals and in the games featuring these two teams the away team did that on 15 occasions (out of 33) and winning by 1 in 10 of those games.
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Leicester vs Burnley |
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The Champions have had a mixed start to the season and their isn’t much to go on here with Burnleys record taken from the 2014/15 season and only 10 similar games played featuring these two teams. One standout from those 10 games however is the fact that 8 have resulted in over 2.5 goals. The betting markets rate over 2.5 goals a 50/50 chance so there is some value on a small sample here.
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Man City vs Bournemouth |
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Looking at the pricing of this game there is no surprise to see that Bournemouth are the overall value option. Previous games involving one of these two teams has seen the away team win 15% of the time, the odds for this game suggest a much lower 7%. Either way there is a low chance of an away win here. One thing to note is that Man City are value to cover the -1.5 goal line, when they do win they tend to thrash teams as seen by the 5-1 thrashing received by Bournemouth last season.
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West Brom vs West Ham |
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The betting markets can’t split these two and they look to have this game about right with both the overall stats and similar team stats pointing to value in the draw. There is no real skew on the Asian Handicap line and recent head to heads are mixed.
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Everton vs Middlesbrough |
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Everton have been slow starters in recent seasons, but not this year, 10 points from 12 sees them priced at odds on to beat newly promoted Middlesbrough. There are only 15 similar games to go on here but in those games the home team have won 67% of the time, their odds suggest a 55% chance. Its a similar story on the Asian Handicaps with Everton covering or half covering the line on 10 of the 15 occasions.
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Watford vs Man United |
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Watford weren’t value against the similarly graded and priced Arsenal a couple of weeks back but the stats seem more favourable this time. On an overall record basis 7.00 seems too high for a home team that won 32% of its home games on a rolling basis (Man United lost a similar % away from home). Again the Asian Handicap looks the most promising with Watford being given a whole goal start, this has bee covered in 14 of 32 games (with 11 being pushed). There may be some reaction from United’s players after their lacklustre 1st half performance in last weeks Derby however.
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Crystal Palace vs Stoke |
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From a pure value perspective this game looks the pick of the bunch with Palace priced at evens to beat Stoke at home. This seems crazy given Palace’s home record and you can only assume Stoke’s poor start to the season is whats pricing them at 4.26. In similar games featuring one of these two teams the home team have won only 31% of games, the away team have actually won more so the value is firmly on Stoke here, based on these stats.
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Southampton vs Swansea |
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Swansea have made a great start to the season and they look value here based off both sets of stats and the Asian Handicap, which looks the way to go given Swansea have been given a whole goal headstart (pricing them slightly below the evens mark). Swansea only need to draw to win this and they have done this or better in 11 of the 21 similar games, having lost by the 1 goal in 6 games (which will result in your money back).
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Tottenham vs Sunderland |
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Odds of over 11 in a two horse race will almost always point to value. When you look at Spur’s record against 3rd grade teams at home, this is justified. The away team have won 39% of games, with Spurs failing to win more often than not. Backing Sunderland in some way offers value and with Spurs requiring a 2 goal win the Asian Handicap line gives that option.
About Valuesportsbetting
Valuesportsbetting produce form guides that identify value bets for the English Premier League, across a number of betting markets, by looking at the historical stats of each team. Their Season Guide is a free, 68 page ebook detailing the betting trends for every team in the league. There are plenty of mug punters that don’t pay enough attention to the odds that are available. Don’t be one of them, check out their website and form guides at www.valuesportsbetting.com.